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Lululemon Athletica

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LULU trade ideas

LULU, a stock to watch!Lululemon stock (LULU) has traded down into the $230's for the first time since the COVID-19 Crash of 2020. I believe that LULU is a stock to keep your eye on, for a few reasons. - The stock is trading at a 20x p/e whereas its historical p/e is in the mid 40's. - Margins for the company have all been steady, and remain an industry leader. - Lululemon is still set to see 10% CAGR for EPS in the next 5 years. (consensus) - The stock is seeing a severe correction, on par with its past decade corrections. Above is bullish sentiment on LULU, and can be considered the "bull/base case" Personally, I have not turned bullish on LULU yet, but with the levels it is reaching it has most certainly caught my eye and has been added to my watch list. While the stock is seeing oversold levels, I think the midterm outlook can still remain bearish for Lululemon. Below are reasons why the short/midterm outlook for LULU may not be optimal. - Weaker forward projections compared to last 5 years. Though LULU is expecting 10% CAGR EPS for the next 5 years, that is just a fraction of its last 5 year CAGR of 38.55%. While projections are still positive, they have certainly dampened compared to recent years' growth. - Macroeconomic environment. Though the economy remains hot/fine for now, there have been warning signs flashing of a rising unemployment figure across the country. With suboptimal economic conditions, the average consumer may cut down on expensive Lululemon clothing. These Macro conditions may also continue to dampen the economy, which can cause an overall market correction, where LULU would likely follow the sentiment. Overall, I believe that LULU offers significant reward, but the shorter term horizon is still worrisome for Lululemon and the global economy. Lululemon is a leader in the Retail Trade sector and dominates when it comes to profitability. The stock is definitely one to keep an eye on if it continues to get crushed. Regarding technicals, I am watching this demand zone around the 200 level. The stock could trend down to this area, and reach close to COVID-19 lows if sentiment does not change. This area could also offer significant R/R for an entry point. Disclosure: I currently hold no position in LULU stock, and have never been a shareholder.
NASDAQ:LULU
by ZachSap
Buy LULU, don’t just shop there. Ticker: LULU Key data: * Market cap: $37.3b * PE: 21.92 Execution metrics: * Entry: $291.63 * TP: $318.34 * SL: $221.68 Profit paths: * Buy shares at market open * Dec 320/290 Bull Put Technical Support: * Money flow: Positive * POI: 1 ATR * Justification: Leaving demand. Relief after creating new low. Fresh supply to test . Fundamental Support: * Analyst 1Y target: $311.32 * Next earnings: Dec 5 2024 * Justification: strong revenue YoY, net income increasing YoY, short + long term assets > liabilities
NASDAQ:LULULong
by fullmetalflux
Breaking the Stretch: LULU Aiming for $355 with MomentumLululemon (LULU) is building strong bullish momentum after successfully filling the $245 bullish gap. The stock is now primed to break through the $275 resistance level, heading toward the next significant weekly resistance level at $354.66. With a favorable 3.39 risk-to-reward ratio, this presents an excellent opportunity for investors to enter, managing risk with a stop-loss at $243.37. Lululemon’s strong financials and continuous brand expansion, coupled with increased demand in athleisure and lifestyle apparel, further support its upward trajectory. As the company continues to outperform in its market segment, there is a clear path for LULU to hit its $355 target in the near term. NASDAQ:LULU
NASDAQ:LULULong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
My transition... + LULU Longer Term Outlook! Short --> LongGood to be back! As I mentioned, I'm going through a transition in my trading world and rebranding myself away from TraderDaddy and building out my own educational business and focusing on my personal trading and my clients development. Expect a username change in the coming days! I will do my best to be here as much as I can with you all through continued analysis! One thing i'm learning more and more is how much we could be learning from each other in this crazy business and I am blessed to be in a position to be able to help others. It's a very exciting time and I'm happy to have you all here with me for the coming journey. Stay tuned for further updates and more analysis! Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:LULU
by ReigningTrades
Lululemon ($LULU) Slides After Q2 Earnings; Key Levels to WatchLululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LULU ) experienced a sharp pullback early Friday despite posting better-than-expected earnings in Q2. The activewear giant’s outlook and revenue missed analysts' expectations, fueling investor concern. Fundamental Analysis Lululemon (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LULU ) reported Q2 earnings of $3.15 per share, a 17.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.93 per share. Revenue rose 7% to $2.37 billion but fell short of the expected $2.4 billion. Despite the earnings beat, Lululemon’s revenue growth has slowed over the past two quarters, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain its momentum amid rising competition and shifting consumer behavior. Q3 and Full-Year Guidance: A Mixed Bag For Q3, Lululemon (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LULU ) guided revenue to be in the range of $2.34 billion to $2.365 billion, representing a 6% to 7% growth rate, with earnings projected between $2.68 and $2.73 per share. This was slightly below analysts' expectations of $2.70 per share on $2.4 billion in sales. Lululemon’s full-year sales guidance of $10.38 billion to $10.48 billion also missed the market consensus of $10.6 billion, while the earnings outlook of $13.95 to $14.15 per share was aligned with estimates of $14.01 per share. Key Concerns: Slowing Growth and Competitive Landscape Earnings and revenue growth have decelerated, reflecting broader market trends such as weakened consumer spending amid inflationary pressures. Comparable store sales increased by 2%, below the anticipated 5.9%. The company also faces rising competition from other athletic apparel brands and general retail slowdowns, impacting sales growth. Additionally, Lululemon’s missteps, such as the troubled launch of its Breezethrough leggings, have weighed on investor sentiment. Technical Analysis Lululemon’s stock has been on a steep decline, dropping nearly 49% year-to-date. However, shares showed signs of breaking this downtrend in premarket trade on Friday, climbing 4.6% to retest key technical levels. Descending Channel and Moving Averages Since gapping below the 200-day moving average (MA) in late March, Lululemon (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LULU ) has traded within a descending channel, marking a persistent multi-month downtrend. In recent weeks, the stock attempted a breakout but faced resistance near the channel’s top trendline and the 50-day MA. Premarket trading indicates a potential retest of these areas, setting up a pivotal moment for the stock. Key Technical Levels to Watch 1. $272 Resistance: This level coincides with the descending channel’s top trendline and the downward-sloping 50-day MA. A decisive move above this could signal a breakout, prompting further buying interest. 2. $293 Target: The next significant resistance lies around $293, close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December high to the August low. This level also aligns with key lows in May and July, suggesting potential selling pressure. 3. $335 Region: Should momentum carry Lululemon higher, the $335 level near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could be the next target. This area could see resistance from notable swing highs and lows in April and June. 4. $371 Long-Term Target: A sustained uptrend could see the stock approach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $371, where profit-taking might occur. This level aligns with April’s countertrend peak, situated near the descending channel’s upper boundary. Conclusion Lululemon faces a challenging road ahead as it seeks to regain investor confidence amid slowing growth and competitive pressures. While the company’s earnings beat expectations, its cautious outlook and revenue shortfall highlight broader industry challenges. On the technical front, key levels could determine the stock’s next move, with a potential breakout above $272 setting the stage for a more extended rally. Investors should closely monitor these technical markers alongside Lululemon’s ongoing strategic initiatives and broader economic trends to gauge the stock’s recovery prospects.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by DEXWireNews
8/26/24 - $lulu - 1.5% position into print8/26/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:LULU 1.5% position into print - still sub 20x - still desirable among the swipe culture (and i like the products, i've written about how their fabric/ tech remains scarce) - growing. generates cash. i don't need to repeat what i've written - stock is bid which tells me those who cover it are still buyers - a stock where likely if it's -10 or -15% on the day (unlikely but these days who the funk knows) you could dip buy it. and i'd plan to be back at a 2-3% position if that's the case and let it ride. - but the options chain is pricing in something close north of $290. not willing to use leverage on this one. but also don't want to sit out what i still believe is great growing brand trading 18x PE and growing. what do u think anon? V
NASDAQ:LULULong
by VROCKSTAR
1
LULU in at $270, Pullback to $253MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading system is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at top channel Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level Price at Fibonacci number I hope this is easy to understand.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by chancethepug
LULU Short IdeaLULU has been consistently going down for a while now, it's not even really sideways, just down. I've had some good trades on it this year but haven't touched it since because of how much it has dropped. Didn't want to short the lows or long it, but I finally see another great short entry on it here. The 265 area is near the 2022 lows, LULU flushed hard below it but has come back for a retest. It did not quite touch the line, but I went ahead and entered my full position. I'll stop out if it breaks above, targeting the gap fill below for the first target.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by AdvancedPlays
Lululemon: Downward Dog Days Ahead? - A Wyckoff Distr AnalysisINTRO I have been sitting on this idea for a while and finally decided to put the pen to the pad. For the past three years, there have been signs that Lululemon's stock may be destined for a decline. This trade idea will explore the potential for a downtrend using Wyckoff analysis, a technical analysis pattern used to identify trends within a market cycle. The Wyckoff Distribution theory suggests that large institutions subtly distribute their holdings and initiate short positions before a significant price decline. This distribution unfolds in five distinct phases, each with its own characteristics. In this article, I'll describe these phases and analyze how they might be seen in Lululemon's case. For reference, this is the schematic I will be comparing my LULU case to. The Setup The company's story began in 2008 with its founding. Like most companies, it was affected by the 2008 financial crisis and faced challenges in its performance. However, it recovered strongly over the next 3 years, with its stock price increasing by almost 3,700% from its low in 2009 to its high in 2012. From 2012 to 2018, the stock underperformed as its valuation took some time to catch up. During this period, LULU steadily improved its financial performance, attracting the attention of smart investors who began accumulating shares. Phase A The distribution phase marks the end of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, buyers have been dominant, but now we see evidence of institutional selling with the preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). The BC indicates the end of the uptrend as institutions freely unload shares. The low created after the BC is called the automatic reaction (AR). This low is important because it represents the lowest price at which institutions are willing to sell their shares. The AR and BC form our distribution channel, and there will be secondary tests (ST) of these ranges. Phase B Phase B functions to create momentum in preparation for a new downtrend. During this phase, institutions and large professional interests sell off their holdings and start taking short positions. This is typically marked by low-volume rallies and high-volume declines. Additionally, we may witness signs of weakness (SOW) and upthrusts (UT), which are further tests of supply and demand as institutions assess interest. Note the volume as the stock price advances and declines. Phase C Phase C is an optional phase that primarily serves as a test of the remaining demand. You can identify it by the UpThrust After Distribution (UTAD), which is a price move above the trading channel resistance that quickly reverses and closes back within the channel. It is a bull trap – it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality, it is intended to trick uninformed break-out traders. It is used to snag additional shares short at elevated prices before a decline. Note the volume spike to create the UTAD and the volume spike to take it away. Phase D In Phase D, there is growing evidence that the uptrend is coming to an end. Sellers take control, leading to a clear break of support or a decline below the midpoint of the trading channel after a UT or UTAD. During this phase, there are typically several weak rallies, each marked by the last point of supply (LPSY). Phase E The final phase of the cycle is Phase E. It depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the channel to the downside and supply is in control. This represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the newly formed downtrend are quickly washed with selling. We haven't entered Phase E yet, but the chart is currently aligning well with our expectations. Given that the pattern has taken 3 years to form, it will likely result in a longer-term short. I believe that targeting the 150s is reasonable if the analysis is accurate. I would appreciate hearing your thoughts on this.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by Decam9
9
$LULU counter trend rally?I've seen a lot of chatter on Twitter lately about NASDAQ:LULU since it's now 40% off the highs from the beginning of the year... this led me to look at the chart, and to me it's looking pretty bottomed out in the short term. As you can see on the chart, we've largely been ranging in a large channel since 2021. It would make sense to me that we'd see one more counter trend rally here (3rd touch on support) up to $384-$465 or so (around 40%-70% move higher). Note: There's also a possibility of a wick down to the support at $273. This might make a better entry. Losing that support level would invalidate the idea. I think this move is likely to play out sometime over the next 2 or so months (if that support holds). Let's see if it plays out.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by benjihyam
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour. The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season. So what’s going on? First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%. I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons: 1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate. 2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal. 3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews. While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this! Lululemon is on my watchlist!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:LULU
by scheplick
25