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MSFT Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure Breakdown: * MSFT experienced a sharp decline, breaking below previous support levels around 412 and heading towards 408. * The trend remains bearish as price is rejecting from a lower high after a significant breakdown. * Volume profile suggests strong liquidity near 408, with 405.82 as the next critical downside level. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): ~408 (high liquidity, potential reaction zone). * Value Area High (VAH): ~412-413 (prior resistance). * Value Area Low (VAL): ~405.82 (possible next support). * Below 405, there's a liquidity gap, meaning price could fall sharply to 400-395 if selling pressure increases. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish momentum increasing. * Stochastic RSI: Slightly oversold but not yet curling upward—potential for more downside. * VWAP: Price is trading below VWAP, confirming bearish control. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 420 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance). * 430-440 → Heavy call positioning (unlikely to reach unless trend shifts). * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 390 & 385 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-50% & -30% levels). * 395 → Second Major Put Wall (-39%). * If price breaks 405, it may accelerate toward 400-395 due to gamma exposure. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 28.5 | IVx Avg 34.9 → Slightly elevated but not extreme. * Call Positioning Only 7.3% → Options traders are not betting heavily on upside. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 408 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 405.82 (VAL).
🔹 Target 2: 400-395 (Put Support).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 412 (invalidates downside move).
🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 405/400 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 410P/400P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 412, targeting 416-420.
🔹 Target 1: 416 (first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 420 (Highest GEX resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 410 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 395/390 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 412+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 405, strong gamma exposure can push MSFT lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
MSFT Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for MSFT * Current Price Action: MSFT is in a descending triangle formation, showing signs of weakness, but it is currently consolidating near a key support level. * Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $412 – A breakout above this level could trigger more upside. * Next Resistance: $420 – Aligns with the 3rd Call Wall from GEX data. * Major Resistance: $430 – This level coincides with the next call resistance. * First Support: $405 – If MSFT fails to hold here, a move lower is likely. * Major Support: $400 – A break below this could accelerate selling pressure. * Critical Breakdown Level: $395 – A key Put Wall, where sellers may gain control. * Indicators: * MACD: Slightly bullish crossover forming, indicating a potential bounce. * Stochastic RSI: Rising from oversold levels, suggesting possible upside movement. Options Flow & GEX Analysis * GEX (Gamma Exposure): * Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $408 – MSFT is trading right at this level, a breakout could lead to further upside. * 39.1% Call Wall: $430 – A major resistance zone where calls are heavily positioned. * 21.47% Call Wall: $420 – Another resistance where price might slow down. * Put Wall Support: $400 – The strongest downside support from options positioning. * 3rd Put Wall: $395 – If MSFT breaks below this, further downside is likely. * IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 16.3 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper. * IVx Avg: 24.8 → A moderate volatility level. * Options Sentiment: Puts = 12.8% → Slightly bearish sentiment. Trade Setups 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $412 with strong volume. * Target: $420, then $430 (Gamma Squeeze Potential). * Stop Loss: Below $408. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play): * Entry: Below $405. * Target: $400 or $395 (Put Support). * Stop Loss: Above $408. Final Thoughts * MSFT is at a critical inflection point, trading near key resistance at $408-$412. * A move above $412 could lead to a rally toward $420-$430, driven by options flow. * A break below $405 could send it towards $400 and lower. * Best Trade Approach: Wait for confirmation of a breakout above $412 or breakdown below $405 before entering a trade. 🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
What's next for Microsoft?The 50 EMA (green line) has historically acted as dynamic support, but with price now trading below it, there is a clear shift in momentum toward the bearish side. If price fails to reclaim the 50 EMA (currently around $415-$420) and faces rejection, it could signal further downside toward the $380 support zone, making a short trade viable with a stop above $426. However, if buyers step in at $387-$390 and we see a strong bullish reaction, it could lead to a rebound toward the 50 EMA and potentially the $427-442 distribution zone. The key decision point lies in whether price can reclaim or decisively reject the 50 EMA, dictating the next major move. A clean reclaim would signal bullish continuation, while a firm rejection could confirm further downside before any recovery. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MysticMads
Microsoft 2-17 (scalping + forecast)🔥 Market Overview: Trend: Microsoft (MSFT) is in a short-term downtrend, struggling below key resistance levels. The stock is near support but lacks strong buying momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: $415–$420 (critical breakout zone). Support: $405–$408 (near-term holding zone). Indicators: EMA 9: $408.59 (acting as a dynamic resistance). EMA 200: $423.78 (long-term bearish signal below this level). Supertrend: $415.50 (acting as resistance). MACD: Weak bullish crossover, but still negative, indicating uncertain momentum. RSI: 43.63 (neutral to slightly oversold, but no strong reversal signal yet). 🔥 Scalping Strategy: 🩸 1. Momentum Scalping: Buy near: $405–$408 if support holds. Target: $415–$420. Stop-loss below: $403. 🩸 2. Breakout Scalping: Long if price breaks above: $415, targeting $423. Short if price rejects $415, targeting $405. 🩸 3. Range Scalping: Sell near: $415–$420 resistance. Target: $408–$405. Stop-loss: $421 if breakout occurs. 🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks): If MSFT breaks $415, expect a push toward $423. A rejection at $415 could lead to further downside toward $400. RSI is low but not signaling a strong reversal yet. 🔥 News & Market Context: AI & Cloud Growth: Microsoft remains a leader in AI and cloud computing, which provides long-term strength. Tech Sector Struggles: The stock is underperforming compared to other tech giants. Macroeconomic Factors: Market conditions remain volatile, impacting growth stocks. 🔥 Decision: 🩸 Short-term: Look for a breakout above $415 or a rejection for shorting opportunities. 🩸 Mid-term: Bearish unless MSFT clears $415 with strong momentum. 🩸 Ideal Play: Buy only if $405 holds, or short if price struggles at $415. 👑 Final Verdict: Microsoft remains weak, with no strong bullish confirmation. Bulls need a breakout above $415 to regain strength. 🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote: "A weak trend is a dangerous trade—wait for conviction before committing."
NASDAQ:MSFT
by LucanInvestor
Microsoft Set to Bounce Back: Consider Going LONG Next Week - Key Insights: Microsoft remains a strong player in the tech sector, with recent earnings highlighting its resilience. The current retracement presents a buying opportunity as analysts remain bullish on the stock, driven by solid fundamentals and prospects in cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The backing from large investors, including BlackRock, further confirms its growth potential in the near future, making it a favorable pick for long-term investors. - Price Targets: Based on the analysis, traders should consider the following targets and stop levels for next week: Next week targets: T1: $432, T2: $446. Stop levels: S1: $405, S2: $400. This alignment follows the criteria for long positions, reflecting a structured approach to potential gains while minimizing risks. - Recent Performance: Microsoft’s recent performance has showcased its pivotal role in the market, frequently moving in correlation with fellow tech leaders. Although the stock experienced a price retracement, it has endured strong backing from both institutional investors and retail sentiment. This fluctuation is seen as a temporary setback in the context of its long-term growth trajectory. - Expert Analysis: Market experts have expressed optimism surrounding Microsoft, highlighting its strategic positioning in sectors poised for growth, specifically artificial intelligence and cloud services. Analysts suggest the current price movements create an attractive entry point for long-term investments, with many predicting a forthcoming rebound. This sentiment is reinforced by the performance trends in the broader technology space. - News Impact: Significant market events, particularly earnings reports from key technology firms, are shaping the outlook for Microsoft. The ongoing discussion around artificial intelligence investments, in which Microsoft is a central player, reinforces its significance in the market. Despite facing some volatility, Microsoft's sturdy fundamentals and strategic focus position it as a favored choice for investors looking towards the future.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Microsoft - This Will Lead To Trouble!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) shows some clear weakness: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Back in mid 2024 Microsoft created another new all time high and in doing so also retested the major upper resistance trendline of the longer term rising channel formation. Following this bearish retest, a correction is very expected before we then see the bullish trend continuation. Levels to watch: $350 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by basictradingtv
21
MICROSOFT: Rectangle bottom buy opportunity.Microsoft is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.052, MACD = -6.600, ADX = 39.471) but that is to be expected as the price breached the 0.786 and almost touched the bottom of the 5 month Rectangle pattern. All breaks under the 0.786 have been strong buy opportunities targeting at least the 0.236 Fib. The trade is long (TP = 438.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by InvestingScope
1
MSFTShort Fundamental Analysis – MSFT 1. Context • Core Business & Revenue Streams • Microsoft generates steady income from a diversified portfolio: Windows OS, Office 365 (productivity suite), and Azure (cloud computing). • Cloud services (Azure) remain a key growth driver, competing with AWS (Amazon) and GCP (Google). • Macro Environment • Ongoing demand for remote work and digital transformation supports enterprise software and cloud adoption. • Potential headwinds include a global economic slowdown, which could impact IT spending, and rising competition in AI-driven services. 2. Possible Direction • Bias: Generally bullish over the medium to long term, given Microsoft’s strong balance sheet, reliable cash flow, and continued focus on cloud and AI innovations. • Alternate Scenario: • A sharp downturn in corporate IT budgets or intensified cloud competition might slow revenue growth. • Regulatory actions (antitrust scrutiny, data protection rules) could weigh on sentiment and valuation. 3. Factors to Watch 1. Azure Growth & Market Share • Key metric for investors, as cloud revenue gains help offset any stagnation in legacy Windows or Office segments. 2. Earnings Reports & Guidance • Management’s outlook on revenues, margins, and capital expenditures provides clues about demand trends. 3. AI Initiatives & Acquisitions • Microsoft’s ongoing integration of AI across its product suite (e.g., GitHub Copilot, Bing Chat) and strategic acquisitions can drive future growth. 4. Regulatory & Competitive Landscape • Watch for potential antitrust concerns or new market entrants in cloud, productivity software, or AI. 4. Overall Conclusion • MSFT is well-positioned to benefit from enterprise cloud adoption and AI-driven services. • Its diverse revenue streams and strong balance sheet offer resilience in times of macro uncertainty. • Despite potential challenges from competition and regulatory scrutiny, Microsoft’s long-term fundamentals remain solid. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock markets can be volatile, and individual securities carry significant risks. Always consider your personal risk tolerance, diversify your portfolio, and consult reputable financial advisors or official filings before making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by SkylimitBreakPoint
STOCKS | AI | Amazon, Meta & MSFTPeople who are saying that AI is just a bubble are missing the big picture. Huge tech companies are pouring serious money into it, which shows they believe AI is here to stay. We're talking massive investments – like over $320 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025, according to the Financial Times. Amazon is planning over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, mainly focused on AI infrastructure. This could be huge not only for NASDAQ:AMZN as a whole but also for the AI industry. Alphabet is also throwing in around $75 billion this year to boost its AI capabilities. These kinds of investments from the top players make it clear: they know you have to spend big to win in the AI game and clearly there is a race going on, especially after the release of DeepSeekAI. American companies don't want to be left behind, and it's likely that they will pour money into integrating AI to improve their business operation - with the ultimate aim to improve profit - which is great for stock prices. How they make money from AI might change over time, but the overall direction is obvious – AI is changing everything and driving innovation. According to Statista, the global AI market is predicted to reach around $826 billion by 2030. That kind of growth tells you AI is going to be a major force in just about every industry. And therefore I believe that all the companies making major investment in AI will also see exponential growth over the next 5 years - meaning it may be a longer term game play. _______________ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by CryptoCheck-
2
$MSFT short term consolidation within a upward trending channelNASDAQ:MSFT stock price has stagnated since Aug 2024. Since hitting a peak of $ 468 in July 2024 the NASDAQ:MSFT stock has been consolidating sideways. But the stock is still within the upward sloping channel in a weekly price chart. We are bullish if the price is above the midpoint of the upward sloping regression channel which lies $380. We should remember from Louis Yamada that ‘The bigger the base, the higher in space’. So, the consolidation in NASDAQ:MSFT can result in a major breakout. The daily Fib retracement of 0.236 lies $ 406. Accumulate NASDAQ:MSFT between $406 and $380.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RabishankarBiswal
70% Dot.com crash to repeat for Microsoft?** long term forecast, the years ahead ** On the above 2 month chart price action has rallied 700% in the last 9 years. A number or reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. They include: 1) Price action and RSI support breakouts. 2) Legacy support confirms resistance. 3) A rising wedge formation confirms breakout, with 50% correction forecast to $220. (see below) 4) Regular bearish divergence as measured across a 10 month period. It is in fact the highest number of oscillators to negatively with price action. 5) Confirmed monthly Gravestone DOJI candle. (see below) 6) A 70% correction would still leave Microsoft with a market capital of $915b !! Is it possible price action continues to print higher highs? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Rising wedge breakout Monthly Gravestone DOJI
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by without_worries
MSFT : Going long for about 0.625% of the net capitalTechnical Overview Took a position for about 0.625% of the net capital from the lower trendline of the parallel channel. As of now, the target considered is the high of the parallel channel, to where there is a potential move of about 10% from the entry level. Will consider adding on to the position if the price falls to the, low of the ascending channel as marked in the charts. Fundmental Overview In the fiscal quarter ending January 29, 2025, Microsoft reported a 12% increase in revenue, totaling $69.6 billion, and a 10% rise in net income to $24.1 billion. The Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure, saw a 19% revenue growth. However, Azure's growth rate decelerated to 31%, down from 34% in the previous quarter. The company is significantly investing in artificial intelligence (AI), with plans to allocate $80 billion in capital expenditures for the fiscal year, primarily aimed at enhancing AI infrastructure. 📢📢📢 If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly. Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments. Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too. Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Sniper-Traders