MSFT trade ideas
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points:
Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27.
Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016.
The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion.
Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth:
Q3 ’21: 48%
Q4 ’21: 46%
Q1 ’22: 49%
Q2 ’22: 46%
Q3 ’22: 42%
Q4 ’22: 38%
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion.
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%.
Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP
Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP
Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006
2006: $12.5B
2007: $16.4B
2008: $16.6B
2009: $19B
2010: $20B
2011: $20.9B
2012: $21.5B
2013: $24.5B
2014: $26.5B
2015: $23.8B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $28.9B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.9B
2020: $43.1B
2021: $51.7B
2022: $52.7B
Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target
Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%.
On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
MICROSOFT - EARNINGSMSFT is trading under key resistance as seen by the white trendline. The price action and trend still favors downside bias however there is a key gap fill around $257 that would be a perfect short level if it popped off of earnings.
Based off of the rally in the indexes, MSFT has been a lagger in tech which could be displaying relative weakness.
$MSFT Earnings later/w a wedge break and candle confirm on day $MSFT Trade Idea
Earnings tonight with a wedge break and candle confirmation on the daily.
Calls over $245.3
Target: $249.85
Puts under $239.55
Target $233.9(gap fill).
NASDAQ:MSFT
SharkBullish M pattern.
The final or 4th leg terminated at the .886.
Peak 2 is higher than peak 1.
Adds up to a Shark but be careful about staying too long.
There is a bearish rising wedge close to 200.
No recommendation.
This would be labeled OXABC with 0 being at the start of leg 1 or also called the impulse wave/Hammer at C which is the end of the 4th leg.
Seems things are so much easier to see when it is over (o:
Microsoft Pre-Quarter AnalysisFor the short analysis, Microsoft's revenue shows potential weakness in the next quarterly announcement. As the global economy continues to weaken, high inflation continues to create hardships for companies and individuals. Investors are looking for good stability, in financials and to create a positive outlook for the next quarter's revenue. Investors will look forward to hearing the progress of the acquisition of Activision Blizzard .
In my opinion, I think that Microsoft's next quarter's revenue will be under what Wall Street expects. Their next quarter's outlook will be negative, causing the stock to drop over 6% within the next week. Before the quarter announcement on Tuesday at 4:30 Central time, there will be a before announcement pump, causing the stock to rise another 2%. Afterward, the stock will drop under $210 and will stay low for several weeks. For retail investors, keep an eye out for support lines before investing in Microsoft .
Microsoft Pre-Quarter Analysis For the short analysis, Microsoft's revenue shows potential weakness in the next quarterly announcement. As the global economy continues to weaken, high inflation continues to create hardships for companies and individuals. Investors are looking for good stability, in financials and to create a positive outlook for the next quarter's revenue. Investors will look forward to hearing the progress of the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
In my opinion, I think that Microsoft's next quarter's revenue will be under what Wall Street expects. Their next quarter's outlook will be negative, causing the stock to drop over 6% within the next week. Before the quarter announcement on Tuesday at 4:30 Central time, there will be a before announcement pump, causing the stock to rise another 2%. Afterward, the stock will drop under $210 and will stay low for several weeks. For retail investors, keep an eye out for support lines before investing in Microsoft.
Bullish Days For MSFTIn daily timeframe microsoft stock can move upward to $245.
after retracement first target will be $250~$254.
if the price can break weekly orderblock, $267 target will be open for this stock...
Long Call $MSFT$MSFT has been one few tech companies laying off employees this year adding to the unemployment increase. Cowen&Co, Evercore ISI, and Citigroup all have $MSFT as a recommended BUY.
$225 on the horizon?I believe the 5-0 pattern will complete and Microsoft will touch $225 before deciding a next move.
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation| 20th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for MSFT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a pullback sell entry at 244.79, where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 263.91, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 213.47, where the previous swing low is.
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MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation| 20th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for MSFT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a pullback sell entry at 244.79, where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 263.91, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 213.47, where the previous swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MOONSOFTI've got two opinions on Microsoft:
1) we have a repeat of the Dotcom bubble burst, giving a long period of sideways movement over many years while the global economy gets back on track and recovers from the energy crisis, ukraine impact, inflation, etc
2) we've reached the bottom already AND It's just going to keep going up while we enter the Web 3.0 era - Azure, Xbox and the recent OpenAI investment it feels like that technology is going to see them VERY well placed moving forward.
Key horizontal support levels for me are 200 and 133, guessing 133 would only be reached if some crazy world event occured, China invading tawain, esculation of Ukraine conflict drawing in other countries, etc
Going by the effect of other large tech company after a round of layoffs (AMZN, META, etc) are we going to see a noticable upward movement in the short term regardless
MSFT ChartFailed to break 240 big spot and it broke out of the rising wedge.
In 6 Month Chart $235 is big spot if Fails -> $233 the Sentiment cloud turns Green To Red and could be to beginning of sell off
Broken ChannelStrong stock and is now back inside the channel it fell from.
There are folks who will continue to attempt to save this one from any demise. MSFT is my fave stock, I just know there are still rising wedges that are not broken.
Be safe.
No recommendation/Earnings 1-24 AMC.
It does not usually benefit you to stay on board a sinking ship. But letting go can prove to be difficult.
Who is your fave performer you never got to see?
I have 2. Tom Petty and Prince. Life goes on.
