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NIO Inc - ADR (Extended Hours)

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NIO: Great Investment, or a Flop?My attention has for the moment been directed towards NIO thanks to Morgan Stanley’s recent purchase of 10M shares, raising their investment value by 55% to over 28M shares, whilst simultaneously setting a near 100% upside 1Y price target to $10 per share. Ahead of NIO’s June 6 earnings report for 1Q2024, I thought it best to take it upon myself to review the company’s past reports, consumer sentiment, competition, and upcoming industry opportunities, in the anticipation that the all time high (ATH) of about $67 may be broken not so far in the future — quite possibly in the next two to three years. Indeed, that sort of prediction may appear at first to be the lament of an investor who readily entered the stock near its ATH, but in fact I have neither open nor closed positions in NIO stock or options at the time of publishing. That is to say: this is an independent evaluation intended to lay out NIO’s potential to become a high-value company, alongside factors that might stand against such an increase. What is NIO, and What Differentiates Them? As stated in their Annual Report 2023 , published April 2024, NIO is “a pioneer and a leading company in the premium smart electric vehicle market. We design, develop, manufacture, and sell premium smart electric vehicles, driving innovations in next-generation technologies in assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrains and batteries. We differentiate ourselves through our continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations, such as our industry-leading battery swapping technologies, Battery as a Service, or BaaS, as well as our proprietary NIO assisted and intelligent driving and its subscription services.” Compared to most other Chinese EV companies, NIO distinguishes itself primarily through two factors: high-end models and battery swapping. High-End Models NIO focuses on the premium segment of the EV market, offering luxury features and cutting-edge technology. Their vehicles are known in China for their performance, design, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Models cater to consumers looking for high-quality, technologically advanced vehicles. This positioning allows NIO to target a market with higher profit margins and less price sensitivity compared to the mass market. However, this also effectively sets an upper limit on the demand, as most lower-class and low middle-class would not be able to purchase NIO even if they are willing. It is also worth noting that in Chinese culture, names are seen as of great importance; NIO’s Chinese name is pronounced wèi lái, which means Blue Sky Coming , and it is seen as almost auspicious and rather chic. The same pronunciation of the characters can also be used to mean “future” when written in a different manner. Trading View prevents using multiple languages, hence the lack of Chinese characters. Battery Swapping and Battery as a Service (BaaS) NIO's battery-swapping technology is a significant differentiator: instead of traditional charging methods, NIO offers battery-swapping stations where depleted batteries can be exchanged for fully charged ones in a matter of minutes, replaced by robots without a need for human intervention. This innovation addresses two of the primary concerns of EV owners — charging time and charger availability (for those without private chargers). The BaaS model further enhances this by allowing customers to lease batteries instead of purchasing them with the car, reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle by about $10K and offering flexibility to upgrade to newer battery technologies as they become available. This service model is unique and provides NIO with a recurring revenue stream, similar to a subscription service. The standard 75kWh battery costs $100 per month and the long-range 100kWh one cost $230 per month (respectively reduced by 31% and 35% in March). Do note that the costs accrued from building battery swap station and chargers increases relatively linearly — a good sign as long as revenue continues to increase exponentially. As of May 29, 2024, there are 2,427 recorded swap stations in China, 802 of which are along highways. While there are fewer swap stations in Europe, these are located in larger cities where most NIO Europe users are concentrated. Cooperations with other EV companies are in the works to develop cars which can utilize NIO’s existing battery swap station. Today, NIO has the following partners on battery swapping: GAC Group, FAW Group, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group, Chery Automobile, and Lotus Technology. If these collaborations ever come into fruition, NIO would undoubtedly have higher profits from the numerous non-NIO vehicles using their swapping services. Besides, as of November 2023, about 80% of the power from NIO chargers is used by other brands, with BYD and TSLA vehicles being the foremost at 19.4% and 12.3%, respectively. Safety I would like to leave this note on safety, since much attention has lately been drawn to the issue of Chinese EVs catching fire. According to Wikipedia , NIO only had 3 fires recorded by 2021, one of which was caused by a collision; an article in 2023 states two more fires had occurred due to collisions, bringing the estimated total to five for a company that has now sold over 515K EVs as of May 31, 2024. It is suggested that those looking to invest in Chinese EV companies compare their rates of fire per hundred thousand cars sold. For NIO, this number seems extremely low, at under 1 fire per 100K — unless there remains other data my investigation did not uncover. Stock Performance and Sentiment NIO's stock has historically been highly volatile, reflecting both the rapid growth potential and inherent risks associated with the EV industry. I have identified a possible supertrend buy signal on the 5Y chart in the case that the stock price closes above the $6.56 mark at the end of any week. If this happens, it could signify a robust upward momentum, potentially attracting a wave of new investors and boosting market confidence. This possibility is supported by an upwards slope in on-balance volume (OBV) since mid-April — a momentum indicator for volume showing crowd sentiment. Please refer to the chart for supertrend and OBV. The green box indicates the possible buy zone if the supertrend is confirmed, and the arrows on the graph seek to provide a rough guide for how price might move. Overall, market sentiment is mixed, with many investors predicting for an uptrend and others unsure of when NIO will become profitable. Consumer sentiment towards NIO remains generally positive, particularly among tech-savvy and environmentally conscious consumers. The company’s focus on high-end models with advanced features has carved out a niche in the premium EV market. Their NIO house idea further sets them apart from competitors, offering a place where users. These strategies positions NIO well against competitors like Tesla, which also targets the high-end segment, and differentiates it from other Chinese EV manufacturers that compete primarily on price. Competition and Industry Landscape NIO operates in a highly competitive landscape with numerous players vying for market share. Tesla remains a formidable competitor globally and within China, leveraging its brand recognition and extensive Supercharger network. Other Chinese manufacturers like BYD and XPeng also pose significant competition, each with their own strengths in battery technology, manufacturing scale, and market strategies. It seems unlikely NIO will ever have the chance to expand to the United States of America. However, the rest of the Americas might hold some potential for future expansion. At the moment, it might be best for NIO to solidify their position in the Chinese markets and to gain more loyal customers across Europe. Recent Events and Announcements NIO Energy, a key subsidiary focusing on charging infrastructure, battery swapping, and energy storage, recently secured a substantial investment of $207 million. This capital influx is earmarked primarily for research and development (R&D), as well as to support manufacturing and operational costs. Such investments are crucial for NIO’s ongoing technological advancements and expansion of its service network, enhancing its competitive edge in the fast-evolving EV market. Furthermore, NIO announced its record-breaking May deliveries of “20,544 vehicles, increasing by 233.8% year-over-year. NIO delivered 66,217 vehicles year-to-date in 2024, increasing by 51.0% year-over-year.” Having broken their July 2023 highs in deliveries, it appears more and more likely that once NIO ameliorates their cost-managing, their profits will see a formidable increase. Anticipation is building around NIO’s upcoming earnings report for Q1 2024, scheduled for release on June 6. Previous quarterly reports have shown mixed results, with strong revenue growth but persistent challenges in achieving consistent profitability. Industry Opportunities and Challenges The EV industry is poised for substantial growth, driven by increasing environmental regulations, government incentives, and a global shift towards sustainable transportation. For NIO, opportunities lie in expanding its market share, both domestically and internationally, and further innovating in battery technology and autonomous driving. However, the company faces several challenges. Supply chain constraints, rising raw material costs, and geopolitical tensions can impact production and profitability. Additionally, NIO must continuously innovate to stay ahead of the competition, particularly in battery technology and autonomous driving capabilities. Conclusion: Great Investment or a Flop? NIO presents a compelling investment opportunity with its innovative technologies, strong brand positioning, and significant growth potential in the premium EV market. The company’s strategic focus on battery swapping and BaaS provides a unique value proposition that could drive recurring revenue and customer loyalty. However, potential investors should also consider the risks. The EV market is highly competitive and rapidly evolving, with substantial operational and regulatory challenges. NIO’s financial performance has been inconsistent, and achieving sustained profitability remains a key hurdle that NIO will hopefully be able to resolve by end of year 2024. In conclusion, while NIO has the potential to become a high-value company and possibly exceed its previous all-time high of $67 per share in the next few years, it also faces significant risks that could impede its growth. Investors should weigh these factors carefully and consider their own risk tolerance and investment horizon before making a decision. Once the June 6 earnings report is released, I will make an update to further scrutinize earnings and revenue growth. At the moment, it seems a small long position in NIO at the current price would be fitting (low theoretical downside risk at just over $5 per share), although it might be best to wait for supertrend and OBV confirmation before making a hefty commitment. Omni out. Feel free to ask any questions or provide suggestions. This is not financial advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by OmniscientInvestor
12
NIO ? Are traders ready to love it again LONGNIO on the daily is 95% below its ATH Winter of 2021 and 50% lower YTD. In China NIO is competing well with XPEV, LI , BYD and TSLA while it makes further penetrative into the EU market. Its unique concept in action is battery leasing and battery swapping making charging time no longer relevant. Apparently, the battery swapping time from a depleted battery to one carrying a charge is 15-20 minutes. Being a bottom-seeking bargain hunter quite often, I will take a long trade here with a planned duration of two earnings periods.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani
NIO (NIO): High Risk, High Reward - do-or-die!NIO, a stock we've previously analyzed and profited from, remains highly volatile and is currently trending downwards. From its all-time high of approximately $67, it has plummeted to $5.21. This drastic decline occurred over just a bit more than three years, which is relatively short in the stock market. Several factors contribute to this volatility. Firstly, the automotive sector is inherently volatile. Additionally, the electric vehicle (EV) segment has faced political challenges over the past few years. NIO, being a Chinese company, has also been affected by EU subsidies for electric vehicles, adding to the stock's difficulties. Despite these challenges, we consider NIO a compelling investment from both a fundamental and technical perspective. Currently, NIO is holding the High-Volume-Node Point-of-Control on the New York Stock Exchange, suggesting that a bottom may be forming. This level is critical to watch as it could indicate potential stabilization and a reversal point for the stock. Short-Term Analysis Examining the 4-hour chart for NIO, we observe a low-volume node between $6.32 and $7. Whenever the price entered this zone, it quickly moved through it, indicating the nearest possible resistance levels. Thus, the levels of $6.32 and $7.04 are particularly interesting. Around $4.12, the Point-of-Control on the 3-day chart holds, but we could see a further decline towards the $3 mark. We are considering multiple entry points, employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy down towards the all-time low of $1.19. Strategy For NIO, this seems like a do-or-die situation. The potential upside is significant, with gains of nearly 400% if the price moves from $3 to Wave 4. We plan to place multiple entries and dollar-cost average downwards. However, if the price falls below $1.20, it would become unsustainable for NIO. While the potential upside is vast, it's important to recognize the risk of the stock continuing to decline towards zero. Given the current volatility, we find an entry before $3 too risky and volatile, so we are holding off on investment until the price stabilizes at more attractive levels.
NYSE:NIOLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
5
6/5/24 - $nio - tough sector, tough geo, tough chart. sidelines.6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:NIO - just tough to justify 1-2 bn of burn even if co is net cash. sales trends not obvious and seem to have considerable competition esp from BYD (look at that chart!) and others esp in their low margin home market. the chart is death. probably will be volatile but as a trading stock only for now - hard to own profitable chinese tech nevermind cap intensive, cash burning, losing-scale stuff like $nio. gl to holders but i'm just going to watch this from the sidelines - i'd stay away until the dust clears and we have a clear rising tide in chinese equities
NYSE:NIOShort
by VROCKSTAR
NIO 8 AFTER EARNINGS !! NYSE:NIO Record Delivery Expectations: NIO shares soared over 9%, hitting $5.40 on record delivery expectations. Analysts foresee surpassing last year's high due to discounts. This indicates a positive market response to NIO's potential performance, which could lead to a higher stock price. Market Sentiment: The market's response to NIO's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if NIO continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $8. Strong Quarterly Earnings: NIO has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its stock price rising after reporting strong earnings. This indicates a positive market response to its financial performance, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future. Increased Price Targets by Analysts: Analysts have increased their price targets for NIO, with some predicting a potential rise to $8. These optimistic forecasts suggest that the market and analysts have confidence in the company's future growth and performance. Positive Industry Outlook: The electric vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions. As a leading player in this space, NIO is well-positioned to benefit from this industry growth, which could lead to a higher stock price. Innovative Product Line: NIO is poised to add two sedans to its offerings this year. This expansion of its product line could drive sales and revenue growth, potentially leading to a higher stock price.
NYSE:NIOLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
NIO Shares Surged Over 9% on Sales Growth ExpectationsNIO Shares Surged Over 9% on Sales Growth Expectations As evidenced by the NIO stock price chart, yesterday's trading closed at $4.93, while today the NIO share price is around $5.40, indicating an increase of over 9%. According to MarketWatch, the rise is driven by expectations that the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer's deliveries are likely to reach record levels. The existing record was set in July last year when the company achieved monthly sales of 20,462 cars. However, analysts believe this result could be surpassed in May this year due to ongoing discounts on new cars and batteries. The daily chart of NIO shares today shows that the price is in a long-term downtrend (indicated by the red trend channel) due to the global decline in demand for electric vehicles. However, there are fundamental reasons to expect that the downward trend will be broken: → China is intensifying its efforts to develop electric vehicles – the State Council has presented an action plan for decarbonisation. → This month, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 from 4.6% to 5%. Technical analysis of the NIO stock chart shows that: → The price is in a downtrend and below the median line, which can be expected to provide resistance. → Resistance may also be encountered at the $7 per share level, which acted as support at the end of 2023. → The $4.77 level has changed its role several times but has provided support over the past 10 days, giving the bulls a foothold. → The minimum C is at the 50% level of the A→B impulse, which is a sign of a bull market. On June 6, NIO will present its report for the first quarter of 2024. If the report is strong, it could give the bulls more confidence and lead to attempts to reverse the long-term downtrend. Buy and sell stocks of the world's biggest publicly-listed companies with CFDs on FXOpen’s trading platform. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading share CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:NIO
by FXOpen
1
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NYSE:NIOLong
by crypto-manu
7
Market psychology chart of $NIO stock:Current Zone: We are in the 'zone of despair,' where weak investors feel fortunate to have sold. This emotional response typically indicates a significant turning point. Previous Activity: We successfully closed the Fair Value Gap (FVG) from July 2020, marking an optimal entry point. I anticipate the price will surge from here. Future Outlook: I predict that NYSE:NIO could drop to $3.85 to close the gap from June 2020 and complete the falling wedge pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the falling wedge is likely to break soon. From $3.85 or this level, I see the price potentially surging upward. Should we close below this, we could be heading toward the $2.90 zone Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by MarketPax
17
May 1: Huge resistance, new low possibleNIO has rallied hard (like NASDAQ:TSLA ) reacting off the weekly order block and has arrived at an area of strong resistance. Even though it has broken out of the red declining trendline in the daily chart, it doesn't mean that it has made the ultimate bottom. It can make another connector ("the right shoulder"?) and keep extending to the downside for another leg lower like the white arrow. Whether it would just be a shallow pullback to retest the red declining line or back down to new low is still not clear. But most likely the rally would pause and turn lower here. I would not short it, not would I open any new longs. However, looking at NASDAQ:TSLA and the general US indices, another new low is totally possible.
NYSE:NIOShort
by TraderBwater
6
NIO, doing LAST CALL for buyers at the current DISCOUNT PRICE!NIO is registering significant accumulation at the current price level. Net buy volume has increased significantly this past few days -- hinting of an incoming upside reversal. Higher lows creation on weekly data histogram has been created -- suggesting the current price point to be the last baseline before the coming series of ascend. The stock is currently hovering below the 78.6 FIB LEVEL -- a major order block where buyers converge. This is a discount area. Another key note: WEEKLY DOWNTREND LINE BREAK has materialized. HUGE HINT. Spotted at 7.00 TAYOR Safeguard capital always. FUNDAMENTAL NEWS: ______________________________________ NIO revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2022 was $7.143B, a 25.97% increase year-over-year. NIO annual revenue for 2022 was $7.143B, a 25.97% increase from 2021. NIO annual revenue for 2021 was $5.671B, a 127.59% increase from 2020. NIO annual revenue for 2020 was $2.492B, a 121.68% increase from 2019.
NYSE:NIOLong
by JSAL
5