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US100 trade ideas

US100 LONG SETUP Full Actionable Plan for US100 Analysis (Daily, Weekly, 4H) 1. Market Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-Term Correction within Bullish Structure) The overall higher timeframes (weekly and daily) show that the bullish structure is intact, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud holding support, HL formations, and the lagging span remaining close to price. However, the 4-hour timeframe shows bearish momentum, with: • Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) forming. • OBV crossing below the previous HL line, indicating decreasing volume participation. • Chaikin Oscillator and CMF showing outflows. • ADX showing bearish momentum dominance. The daily Fibonacci retracement levels (from the last higher low to the swing high) and the 4-hour Fibonacci extension for the downtrend give clear retracement points. Given these signals, the strategy is to wait for a proper higher low confirmation on the 4-hour timeframe within the retracement zones and avoid catching a falling knife. 2. Entry Strategy: Long Position (If Support Holds) • Preferred Entry Range: • Primary Entry: 20,800 - 20,950 (aligned with 0.618 - 0.786 retracement on the daily Fibonacci). • Secondary Entry (confirmation breakout): A bullish candle close above 21,300, ideally confirmed by price closing above the 4-hour 50 SMA (21,343). • Conditions to Enter: • 4-hour RSI crosses back above 50. • The VW MACD turns green or shows decreasing bearish momentum. • The Chaikin Oscillator moves back into positive territory (above zero). • Price must respect the 200 SMA on the 4H and not close significantly below the Ichimoku cloud lower band. 3. Leverage Recommendation • Suggested Leverage: x10 - x15. • Given the drawdown tolerance, a x15 leverage works well if the entry aligns at 0.618 - 0.786 retracement. 4. Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) • Stop Loss (SL): • Conservative SL: 20,600 (below key Fibonacci level and Ichimoku cloud). • Aggressive SL: 20,700 (tight stop below the HL formation if taking an early entry). • Take Profit (TP): • First TP: 21,700 (aligned with the top of the Bollinger Band on 4H and daily cloud midline). • Second TP: 22,050 - 22,100 (daily resistance from the last high). • Final TP: 22,400 - 22,500 (swing high target, aligned with Fibonacci extension). 5. Monitoring Signals and Risk Adjustments • If Price Closes Below 20,600: • This invalidates the higher low formation and would shift the bias to bearish continuation. • If this happens, wait for confirmation near 19,800 (key support cluster on the volume profile). • If 4H ADX Turns Bullish with Green DI Rising: • This strengthens the case for taking entries with confidence at HL points. Overall Setup Recap: • Bias: Bullish continuation after short-term pullback. • Preferred Entry Range: 20,800 - 20,950 (aligned with Fib levels). • Suggested Leverage: x10 - x15, depending on the setup. • SL Range: 20,600 (safe) or 20,700 (tight). • TP Targets: 21,700 (first), 22,100 (second), 22,400 - 22,500 (final). This strategy ensures that you’re capitalizing on retracements while confirming higher low structures to ride the potential continuation move higher. Drop a like if you like the idea.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 6 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - I think BUY. Morning analysis: M TF - so far, buyers are showing strength after last month's doji candle close. Can't read too much into it though because the candle is not fully formed and closed, but it does indicate buyers sentiment currently. W TF - Last weeks candle closed just below the W neckline, but does this constitute a break of the neckline downwards? Difficult to say because bulls were in total control of the market last Friday and drove price up by thousands of pips, creating a very long wick candle. It was only in the final 4H of Friday that bears pushed price down +-170 pips below the neckline. The market is imperfect, and I would not be too quick to read this as a neckline broken downwards, especially because the early morning trading of today shows a strong rejection of the neckline area. I draw my neckline and S&R as lines but one should always keep in mind that these are areas or zones. D TF - Clear falling wedge pattern in formation (shown in grey and blue lines). These tend to break upwards, but can break in either direction. A break of this pattern in either direction, will result in a large move because the pattern is so large the resulting break + profit target will be large. At time of writing this morning, price is consolidating at D EMA. 4H TF - Strong uptrend and this morning we see a strong rejection of the W neckline area, with a gap up and a candle wick down to the neckline area. Morning interest areas where identified but these later changed as fibs had to be re-drawn (and so not shown on the charts). Later once price stabilised, interest zones where identified but price did not retrace. Day and 4H fibs were drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A. Area's of confluence marked in green highlight but now invalid as price keeps climbing. This morning.... I identified a red highlighted area which I deemed a strong sell area due to D EMA possibly acting as dynamic resistance + D 0.50 sell fib level. Price started to consolidate here in an ascending triangle pattern. These patterns usually break upwards, but can break in either direction. I entered a buy at the hand icon on the break of the market pattern + the D EMA (D EMA has now moved higher as price has moved higher). I took a small position because I don't like these entries where you buy at the highest level of the day which it was at the time of my buy (I find these to be risky and prone to fake outs). I prefer retracement entries (for me, safer entries). Hence my small position. Now I wish it was my usual position size because price is up +- 3'300 pips! :) At least I caught the buy! Hope you had a good trading day! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it. In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members. The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large. This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.” This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election. In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%. Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.” Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs). On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting. The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP. The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released. The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ Weekly Outlook: Key Support, Resistance, and Potential Sen this video, we dive into the Nasdaq’s recent price action and highlight the major support and resistance zones to watch in the coming week. We’ll review key swing levels, discuss possible bullish and bearish scenarios, and explore the importance of volume profiles in anticipating trend shifts. Whether you’re new to trading or looking for fresh perspectives, this breakdown will help you plan your trades with added clarity
CAPITALCOM:US100
by peteramner
NAS100: Bearish Signs, But Bullish Trend HoldsHello, PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is showing signs of further downside after closing below the 1M PP, which suggests more potential for decline. However, the 1D support structure is still holding firm and providing continued support. If we see a break and a sustained move below this level, it would confirm additional downside. That said, the overall trend remains strongly bullish, and we have yet to see conclusive evidence of a bearish reversal. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
NASQ 100 - buy and hold until it searches daily supportHello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy trading on what we see price movement on the chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading, which ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
FX:NAS100Long
by QQGuo-Shane
Market Analysis And Market Outlook of the Week of 01/06/25Saturday: End of the Week Analysis The Week ended Red; with a range of 735 +- points. Monday's Open continued to bring price down through Thursday; Friday being the only Green day. ___________ Overall Weekly bias: - Price reached a major level of support at 20,800 +- and is currently moving up. - With enough momentum the next area being targeted is 21,800 +- . Daily Bias: - Further confirms Weekly bias and support zone along with price targeting 21,800 +- . - A higher low has been created which indicated a reversing market or the beginning of consolidation. - Directional confirmation is needed by taking out has High or making a Lower Low. 1 Hour Bias: - The 1 hour shows a trend change from short to longs. - Taking out last lower high, a retracement is anticipated at this level to last support. 5 Minute Bias: - Looks bullish with price currently retracing to last support. ____________ Considerations: - Presidential inauguration, 01/20 - Earnings Reports, 01/20 - Red Folder News, 01/07 till *ongoing. _____________ Market Anticipated Performance: - The Markets will Range till after the Inauguration and after earnings report. - My bias is a range of 1,300 +- points , from 20,800 +- to 22,100. How to Trade for Week of 01/06: - I am looking for price to retrace on the 1hour, 100 - 200 point +- - Then Looking to enter long as price targets 21,800 - Zone to Zone and pattern trading till 01/20
CAPITALCOM:US100
by JazRod
NAS100 Bull BiasCurrent Market Structure: 1. Trend Analysis: • The price is still within a well-defined ascending channel. • The recent price action shows a pullback toward the channel’s midline after hitting resistance near the upper channel boundary. 2. Key Levels: • Resistance: • 21,400–21,500: Price is near this key zone, which aligns with previous swing highs. A break above this could confirm further bullish momentum. • 21,800: The next significant resistance, where a potential rejection could occur. • Support: • 21,200–21,300: Immediate support zone near the current price. A break below may lead to a retest of the channel’s lower boundary. • 20,766 (blue line): Major support that aligns with previous lows and the base of the channel. Possible Scenarios: 1. Bullish Case: • If price holds above 21,300 and breaks through the 21,500 resistance zone, there’s a strong likelihood of a move toward the next resistance at 21,800 or even the upper boundary of the channel at 22,200. • Buy confirmation: Look for bullish momentum candles or a retest of 21,400–21,500 as new support. 2. Bearish Case: • If the price fails to break 21,500 and falls below 21,300, we may see further downside toward 20,766 (blue line). • A break below 20,766 would invalidate the bullish structure and potentially lead to a deeper pullback toward 20,400–20,321. Indicators to Watch: • Trendline Interaction: The price is near the channel midline. A bounce or rejection here will determine the direction. • Volume: A breakout above resistance zones requires strong volume for confirmation. • Momentum Indicators (e.g., MACD/RSI): Watch for divergences or crossovers that might indicate a shift in momentum. Trading Plan: 1. Long Setup: • Entry: Above 21,500, after a breakout and retest. • Target: 21,800, then 22,200. • Stop Loss: Below 21,300 (midline). 2. Short Setup: • Entry: Below 21,300, after rejection. • Target: 20,766, then 20,400. • Stop Loss: Above 21,500. Conclusion: The market remains in an ascending channel, favoring bullish bias unless 20,766 is broken. Monitor price action at 21,300–21,500 for confirmation of direction.
VANTAGE:NAS100Long
by AutoMarkets