NASDAQ look bullish in the new quarter NASDAQ looks bullish, the new quarter has kicked in
Seasonal Tendacies suggest higher price
US100 trade ideas
USTEC (NASDAQ 100) Analysis – 30M Timeframe
1️⃣ Market Structure & Current Position
Current Price: 19,758
Recent Swing Low: 19,200 (March 14)
Recent Swing High: 19,900 (March 20)
Key Observations:
The market is ranging between 19,200 – 19,900.
Breakout above 19,900 could trigger a strong rally due to thin liquidity above.
If rejected, price could retest 19,600 or 19,200 before resuming upside.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Zones (Demand Areas)
19,600 – 19,650 → High volume node, key retest level.
19,200 – 19,250 → Major liquidity zone, potential bounce area.
Resistance Zones (Supply Areas)
19,900 – 19,950 → Immediate resistance, key breakout level.
20,400 – 20,450 → Fibonacci 1.618 extension.
20,850 – 20,900 → Fibonacci 2.618 extension, potential exhaustion zone.
📌 Gann Confluence Levels:
19,800 – 19,850 → 1/8th division of the last major range.
20,250 – 20,300 → 2/8th division, possible reaction point.
3️⃣ Probable Scenarios & Probability (%)
📈 Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Break & Retest of 19,900 → Target 20,400 – 20,850.
Confirmation: Volume spike above 19,950 & bullish close on H4.
Wave 3 of Elliott Cycle could push price to 20,900 if momentum is strong.
📉 Bearish Scenario (30% Probability)
Rejection at 19,900 → Drop to 19,600, possibly 19,200.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle below 19,750 & increase in sell-side liquidity.
If 19,200 breaks, expect deeper pullback to 18,900 – 18,800.
4️⃣ Conclusion & Trading Strategy
🎯 Bias: Bullish above 19,900, cautious if rejected.
✅ Long Entries:
Break & Retest of 19,900 → TP1: 20,400, TP2: 20,850, TP3: 21,300
Aggressive Buy: Bounce from 19,600 with strong bullish rejection.
❌ Short Entries:
Rejection from 19,900 → Target 19,600 & 19,200.
Aggressive Short: If price fails to break 19,750 with increasing sell volume.
🎯 Stop Loss Levels:
For Longs: Below 19,500.
For Shorts: Above 20,600.
🚀 Final Thoughts
If USTEC clears 19,900 with volume, we could see an explosive move to 20,400 – 20,850.
If rejected, price may revisit 19,600 – 19,200 before another breakout attempt.
NAS100 Sell-Off Isn't Over Yet! | Watch This Key Level for the NAfter a major sell-off, NAS100 still shows strong bearish potential. We're currently seeing price consolidate in a 4-hour range, and all eyes should be on a potential pullback to the trendline or range high. In this video, I break down exactly what I’m watching for the next high-probability short opportunity.
US100Trade plan
Sell at fib level 0.618% retracment .
Dow theory is bearish make LL to LH
sell 19949
Stop Loss 20741
Take profit 19145
RRR 1:1
NAS still stuck in consolidation Market open is looking bearish on the session to end the week. Levels are clear but PA is stuck between the levels.
Share with those in need of a hand 🙏🏾
NAS100 SELL 1 HOUR TIME FRAMESupply Zone
Price is starting to break previous support zone
2:1 Risk Reward, Let's see!
NAS100 Bullish Trend H4 confirms the change of character to bullish. Long here. Turn to bearish if the price is below 19.100.
The next target is 20.400–20.600.
Good luck!
NQ: FED's Day... a big dayGood day!
Big day today! Today's FED is one of the most important ones this year.
Does the Fed bend the knee to Trump and print free money and rate cuts ( for the next meetings, not this one) or not? The Conference will be very relevant to watch.
Market is looking for a relief sign; otherwise, NQ will drop heavenly. Only precaution here is that many large funds and corporation are still holding from above and their pants are down right now or under the water. So there is a possibility that, even with no hint from the FED, they will push the price up (yellow box) to liquidate their positions and sell from above. This will be short live up move. Hence trade safely and keep in mind this possibility.
NAS100 bias Overall TRend is bearish clearly
4hr FTB happens
now once 15 FTB happens going short in it target 4h low.
NAS100 Update - FED IR Decision TodayHow I see it:
BIG PIVOT AREA FOR NASDAQ BETWEEN
19960.00
&
19112.00
Breakout Catalyst - Pending Interest Rate Decision:
If there is any "WISPER" of further rate cuts this year,
"IT WILL BE POSITIVE FOR STOCKS"
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis
Nasdaq Elliott wave study … math study ..
Refined Elliott Wave Count (Higher Degree)
Let’s re-evaluate the larger wave structure with more precision by focusing on the price action from late 2024 to mid-March 2025:
Wave 1 (Impulsive):
Start: The low around late 2024 appears to be near 18,250 (approximated from the chart’s early price action).
End: The first significant high is around 19,500, which occurred in early January 2025.
Length: 19,500 - 18,250 = 1,250 points.
This move up is Wave 1 of the higher-degree impulsive wave.
Wave 2 (Corrective):
Start: 19,500.
End: The pullback to around 18,750 (a low in mid-January 2025).
Retracement: 19,500 - 18,750 = 750 points, which is a 60% retracement of Wave 1 (1,250 × 0.618 = 772 points). This is a deep but acceptable retracement for Wave 2, as Wave 2 can retrace up to 61.8% of Wave 1 without invalidating the count.
Wave 2 appears to have completed around 18,750.
Wave 3 (Impulsive):
Start: 18,750.
End: The high at 21,750, which occurred in early March 2025.
Length: 21,750 - 18,750 = 3,000 points.
Fibonacci Extension: Wave 3 often extends to 1.618 or 2.618 times the length of Wave 1.
1.618 × 1,250 = 2,022.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 2,022.5 = 20,772.5.
2.618 × 1,250 = 3,272.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 3,272.5 = 22,022.5.
The actual Wave 3 length (3,000 points) is very close to the 2.618 extension (3,272.5 points), which is typical for Wave 3 in a strong trending market like the Nasdaq 100. This confirms that the high at 21,750 is likely the end of Wave 3.
Wave 4 (Corrective):
Start: 21,750.
Current Price: 19,490.7 (as of March 19, 2025).
Retracement Levels:
23.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.236) = 21,750 - 708 = 21,042.
38.2% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.382) = 21,750 - 1,146 = 20,604.
50% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.5) = 21,750 - 1,500 = 20,250.
61.8% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.618) = 21,750 - 1,854 = 19,896.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 has retraced slightly beyond the 61.8% level (19,896), which is a deep retracement but still within the acceptable range for Wave 4. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 can retrace up to 78.6% of Wave 3 in some cases, especially in indices:
78.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.786) = 21,750 - 2,358 = 19,392.
The price is very close to the 78.6% retracement (19,392) and is also testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 19,425, providing strong confluence for a potential Wave 4 low.
Wave 5 (Projected Impulsive):
Wave 5 typically equals the length of Wave 1 or reaches a Fibonacci extension of the entire Wave 1-3 move.
Wave 1 Length: 1,250 points.
From the potential Wave 4 low at 19,490.7: 19,490.7 + 1,250 = 20,740.7.
0.618 Extension of Wave 1-3:
Wave 1-3 range: 18,250 to 21,750 = 3,500 points.
0.618 × 3,500 = 2,163 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 2,163 = 21,653.7.
1.0 Extension of Wave 1-3:
1.0 × 3,500 = 3,500 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 3,500 = 22,990.7.
Channel Target: The upper boundary of the ascending channel is around 22,250 (as marked on the chart), which aligns closely with the 0.618 extension target of 21,653.7 and suggests a realistic Wave 5 target in the 21,650–22,250 range.
2. Sub-Wave Structure of Wave 4 (A-B-C Correction)
Wave 4 is a corrective wave, typically unfolding in a three-wave A-B-C structure. Let’s break it down with more precision:
Wave A:
Start: 21,750.
End: The first significant low after the peak, which is around 20,276 (a previous support level marked on the chart).
Length: 21,750 - 20,276 = 1,474 points.
Wave B:
Start: 20,276.
End: The bounce to 20,833 (a minor high before the next decline).
Length: 20,833 - 20,276 = 557 points.
Retracement of Wave A: 557 / 1,474 = 37.8%, which is close to a typical 38.2% retracement for Wave B in an A-B-C correction.
Wave C:
Start: 20,833.
Current Price: 19,490.7.
Length So Far: 20,833 - 19,490.7 = 1,342.3 points.
Wave C Projections:
Wave C often equals Wave A: 1,474 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 1,474 = 19,359.
Wave C can extend to 1.618 × Wave A: 1,474 × 1.618 = 2,384.9 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 2,384.9 = 18,448.1.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 is very close to the 1:1 projection of Wave C (19,359), suggesting that Wave C (and thus Wave 4) is likely nearing completion. The deeper projection to 18,448 seems less likely unless the price breaks below the channel support at 19,425.
3. Confluence with the Ascending Channel
The ascending channel provides additional context for the Elliott Wave count:
Lower Channel Support: The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel at 19,425, which aligns closely with the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 (19,392) and the 1:1 Wave C projection (19,359). This confluence of levels strengthens the case for a Wave 4 low.
Middle of the Channel: The middle of the channel (around 20,276–20,833) acted as resistance during the Wave B bounce and will likely be the first target for Wave 5.
Upper Channel Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel (around 22,250) aligns with the projected Wave 5 target, providing a realistic endpoint for the impulsive wave.
4. RSI Analysis in the Context of Elliott Wave
The RSI is currently at 44.2, down from a recent low of around 40.
Wave 4 and RSI: In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 corrections often coincide with RSI readings near oversold levels (30–40). The RSI dipping to 40 and now showing a slight uptick (with a green arrow) suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting, which is typical at the end of a Wave 4 correction.
Bullish Divergence: The RSI is starting to turn upward while the price is near support, indicating a potential bullish divergence. This supports the idea that Wave 4 is nearing completion and Wave 5 may begin soon.
5. More Accurate Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Wave 5 Upward):
Confirmation: A bounce above 19,490.7, followed by a break above 20,276 (the Wave B high), would confirm the start of Wave 5.
Targets:
First target: 20,276–20,833 (middle of the channel and previous highs).
Second target: 21,653.7 (0.618 extension of Wave 1-3).
Final target: 22,250 (upper channel boundary and potential Wave 5 completion).
Wave 5 Sub-Waves: Wave 5 itself will likely unfold in five sub-waves, so we can expect some consolidation or minor pullbacks as it progresses toward the target.
Bearish Scenario (Deeper Correction):
Invalidation: If the price breaks below 19,425 (the lower channel support), it could invalidate the current Elliott Wave count. A break below 19,000 (the Wave 1 high) would confirm that the larger trend has shifted.
Alternative Count: If the move from 18,750 to 21,750 was a corrective wave (e.g., a larger Wave B), we could be in a larger Wave C down. Targets for a deeper correction would be:
19,000 (psychological support).
18,448 (1.618 extension of Wave A in the A-B-C correction).
18,250 (the start of the larger wave structure).
6. Key Levels to Watch
Support:
19,425 (lower channel boundary and current support).
19,392 (78.6% retracement of Wave 3).
19,359 (1:1 Wave C projection).
19,000 (psychological level and Wave 1 high; a break below this would invalidate the bullish count).
Resistance:
20,276 (Wave B high and middle of the channel).
20,833 (previous high within the channel).
21,653.7 (Wave 5 target based on 0.618 extension).
22,250 (upper channel boundary and final Wave 5 target).
7. Conclusion with More Accurate Details
Current Wave Position: The price is likely completing Wave 4 of a higher-degree impulsive wave, with the A-B-C correction nearing its end around 19,359–19,425. The deep retracement to 78.6% of Wave 3 (19,392) and the alignment with the lower channel support (19,425) provide strong confluence for a Wave 4 low.
Next Move: If the price holds above 19,425 and breaks above 20,276, Wave 5 is likely underway, targeting 21,653.7–22,250. The RSI showing signs of a reversal (bullish divergence) supports this scenario.
Trading Strategy:
Bullish: Enter a long position on a confirmed bounce above 19,490.7, with a stop-loss below 19,425. Target 20,276 as the first level, followed by 20,833 and 22,250.
Bearish: If the price breaks below 19,425, consider a short position with a stop-loss above 19,490.7, targeting 19,000 and potentially 18,448.
Risk Management: The deep retracement in Wave 4 suggests higher volatility, so use tight stop-losses and monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next wave.
NAS100 very short term direction CAPITALCOM:US100 on 4H timeframe made a HL on Mar 13, and then a CHoCH and HH on Mar 17. The price usually retrace after a BOS or CHoCH, and yes, it did yesterday (Mar 18) back to 61.8%Fib retracement line. I anticipate that CAPITALCOM:US100 might hit 20,243 in a couple of days. This is a pure guess though.
Posssible BUYI'm looking the market to come into this 2H FVG and I'll be taking a buy at this point.
US100 Don't be too greedy!!NO FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Looks like smart money wants to grab the stops of the retails... In these times... stay patient and wait for the moment! Trade safe! :)
NQ! Sell (MXMM, Quarterly Theory)Hello, once again I provide you with my current Idea on the Nasdaq. I exepct a 9:30 Manipulation with a reversal to the downside.
Navigating NASDAQ: Positioning for a Possible Bounce Next Week
- Key Insights: The NASDAQ is presently facing bearish sentiment with a
potential downturn in the short term. Investors should be aware of oversold
conditions that could lead to a short-term bounce. Cautious optimism
prevails among experts regarding a possible correction, suggesting
monitoring key resistance levels for signs of reversal.
- Price Targets: For investors considering a long position, price targets should
be strategically set.
- Next week targets: T1: 20,200, T2: 21,000
- Stop levels: S1: 19,000, S2: 18,800
- Recent Performance: The NASDAQ has fallen 12% over the past few weeks,
highlighting a bearish trend. This downturn has been mirrored across major
stock indices, and recent market volatility has exacerbated the decline.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts currently hold a bearish outlook, highlighting a
critical support level near 19,195 amidst broader economic uncertainty
affecting the NASDAQ. However, signs of a potential rally have emerged, with
futures indicating possible movement toward 20,500.
- News Impact: The downturn includes NASDAQ's worst day since 2022, which has
heavily influenced market sentiment. Analysts are monitoring the Nasdaq 100
with plans for possible expansion into the Russell 2000 and S&P 500,
targeting recovery opportunities amidst volatility.
While the NASDAQ is under pressure, the potential for a short-term recovery
remains plausible. Investors should anticipate volatility, making it crucial to
watch key price levels and resistance points for potential market movements next
week.
NAS100Economic Uncertainty and growth, driven by President Trump's tariff policies will affect tech stocks .
nas100 breakout from 4hr descending channel could be seeing bulls return back to tech stocks
Possible BUYI will be looking for the market to take out those equal lows and enter that FVG i will be taking a 1:2 risk on this trade
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq.
According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August.
Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession.
According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation.
These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years.
In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments.
This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term.
Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days:
• Tuesday: Bank of Japan
• Wednesday: Federal Reserve
• Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England
Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including:
• Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy.
According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts.
While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
NAS1OO -SMCUS stock futures fell on Monday, signaling March's market struggles are set to continue in a week highlighted by the Federal Reserve policy meeting.
