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VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
VIX 2008 Repeat VolatilitySee the illustration traced from the 2008 volatility spike leading into the GFC. As it can be seen visually, the similarities are present. The news cycle appears to be dominated by a similar set of events, including the collapse of the 2020's version of Bernie Madoff, SBF. I doubt the volatility will play out in a continuous fashion, as the Fed as new tools to their disposal. I expect some difference in the delay or outcome, but not a significant one.
TVC:VIXLong
by rwoods187
1
Accumulation of VIX to lead to a spike within the next week I'm back with yet another of my VIX bowl action posts. There's so much going on around the globe that could trigger a spike. Markets are seeing negative RSI divergence across many indices on monthly, weekly and daily charts. This time we could go even higher and reach the resistance above. But I'm being conservative in my target and aiming at the diagonal trend line. I've linked my previous VIX bowl post that was extremely successful. Good luck!
CBOE:VIXLong
by SkyTrees
5
SPX Vol near multi-year lows...US economy is a shibboleth; its data is faker than Hunter Biden's teeth. Geopolitical trends are showing US 'diplomacy' is basically a Clown Car with a demented octagenarian in the driver's seat; US Death Merchants are seeing their products humiliated on the battlefield; the Fed is preparing to pivot back to irresponsibility; the Global South is de-dollarising; BRICS+ will be twice as influential in energy markets as OPEC was in the 1970s... and yet SPX volatility is in generational low ranges . Sure, it could get down to a 9-handle; it's done that before - and I tagged that as well - called a VIX BUY "if it dips under 10". I'm going to put every dollar I have into LONG VIX. No stop; use as much leverage as possible; feed any margin call. If it stings for a bit, it means we're in a 2008 situation, so the payoff will be extraordinary.
TVC:VIXLong
by QuantarchyActual
1
VIX is back to the pre-2020 market crash levelsIn early June 2023, we noted that VIX reached levels that preceded the 2022 market meltdown. After that, the index continued lower and advanced toward levels unseen since January 2020 (levels that preceded the 2020 market crash). The current low value of VIX reflects extremely high complacency in the market and the growing dismissal of any economic downturn on the horizon. With many people already thinking that recession is averted and the market is poised to continue only up, we wonder whether the time for contrarian play is slowly approaching us. As a result, we will monitor the market very closely and look for signs that will prompt us to action. We will update our thoughts on the subject with the emergence of new significant developments. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
What is the $VIX showing us?Good Morning SMALL THREAD While we did call the NASDAQ:NDX weakness & top, at that time we didn't think it would be as bad as it got, at least I didn't. Last year we really thought TVC:VIX would break out & the markets would collapse. Our original expectations didn't pan out but we, mostly I, changed as more data came in. We called a bunch of bounces & tops, ALL DOCUMENTED, BUT our best call was becoming BULLISH in late September on DJ:DJI & Bullish on NASDAQ:NDX in October. Since then we've been cautious Bull with a few bearish calls but ultimately, we were/are still bullish. During this time the TVC:VIX was forming a HUGE Symmetrical Triangle that we posted on countless times. We were biased and thought the TVC:VIX would break out and #stocks would be cremated. Obviously, were bullish after Sept 2022 but we thought there would be an eventual harsh crash that made 2022 like a walk in the park. When #VIX broke down we were SHOCKED! That's when we knew that the can was being kicked further down the road. There's a lot more at play that we've been discussing on occasion. SP:SPX has been on a tear but it is currently in a consolidation phase as seen on a daily chart. However, as you can see, RSI can remain overbought on a weekly for long periods of time. TVC:VIX is slowly closing in on a major support level. While it can break through, IMO, don't think it will do it the 1st time. #VIX will likely get a nice bounce. This bounce will likely be strong and could mean possible weakness for #stocks, soon.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
VIX/VVIX Divergence before large drawdownsJust happened to be playing with a few things on tradingview today, thinking of new ways to identify trade opportunities. I often have to keep reminding myself to zoom out to see the bigger picture. This is one of those instances where I might have stumbled upon something useful for very long term trade trends. As many know, VIX is an extremely useful indicator of market sentiment, it also signifies part of what makes up extrinsic value of options contracts. On the longer term time frame, you can see in a bull market volatility slowly compressing lower and lower. Lower highs, lower lows. Eventually, that trend starts to reverse as more and more large players maybe begin to take profits and go short, and more options hedging happen towards the downside. VVIX is a further still derivative of that. It's the measure of volatility of volatility. What I did today was take VIX and divide it by VVIX and see what pattern emerged. At a glance, it's not far off VIX by itself, but, I did notice that weeks or even a couple months before a large market downmove, it gives a little more advance warning that a big sell off was imminent. A solid warning is the lowest low followed by two higher lows, as seen here: If I instead plot VIX by itself, you see a double, maybe triple bottom at near enough the same low before you get a higher low. In the case of the second half of 2018, there actually wasn't an advanced warning at all: But, what VIX by itself does show, that VIX/VVIX did not, is a lower high when the market found bottom in October/November 2022. VIX showed a lower high, VIX/VVIX shows the highest high at that point. So, always worth glancing at both on a long term chart if you're looking for very long term bets on the market and trying what normally is considered a fool's errand to call the tops and bottoms of every bear and bull cycle. It might still be a fool's errand, but maybe this helps some of us get a little closer to being able to pull that off. With that being said, we have just set a new low in both VIX and VIX/VVIX for the year, even though we just had a down week (6/20-23/2023), I'm not convinced we stay down for long until maybe I see such a pattern appear again with higher lows appearing in VIX/VVIX.
TVC:VIX
by dieseldub