W trade ideas
Wayfair the Ponzi SchemeWe all know this company has negative margins and won't ever post a profit.
Question is, are the computerz and ETFs still pumping this garbage or is this another bear flag? Market looked awful bullish today, China negotiations Mon/Tues. Let's see how this resolves next week. Looking for entry into some puts on Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning.
W Bounce off 50DMA?Not real sure on this one, only a small play. Last time W tanked on earnings, it hit the 50DMA and dropped. Do we get a repeat? If it breaks through, it's probably going to set a new high. I would not naked short this one, bought Jan puts.
This is one of the biggest Ponzi scheme in the market. Anybody can increase revenue by selling at a loss. When W goes bankrupt, then we'll know the market has hit a bottom. Probably 2 years while we're in a recession.
Wayfair's first day above water $WLooks like Wayfair had its first day with its head above water for the first time in 2 months. After loosing around 50% of its value from the highs in Oct, things finally seem to be looking up. I was looking, waiting, and watching for the price to break the 8MA, we've been stuck under that line for a month. We broke above that line last Friday, which was a low volume, lackluster, half-day for most other tickers. Then today, the first day with real traders back at their desks in a while, we broke above 2 key levels; the 13MA and the downward channel line (line in blue on my chart). I'm looking for one more bullish candle with a close above yesterday's then I think I'll be sold that this is a reversal. Exciting stuff!!!
Unbelievably technical. Sell this on the rebound.Really bad day for Wayfair after their Q3 report.
The MA200 was not able to support the fall.
The price finished at the .618 of all the previous uptrend.
There might be a little rebound tomorrow.
I would take advantage to short it once it hits the MA200 from below.
If you were long, that might be a good moment to abandon the ship
Short WayfairAn ascending broadening wedge has formed. I strongly believe NYSE:W will gap down to $85 after earnings (August 2nd, 2018), which is the 200d MA. Furthermore, I will make a shot in the dark and consider the extremely unlikely scenario (probability of 1%) that we gap down to $65, which is the bottom rising trend line of the ascending broadening wedge, which I believe will be due to an extremely bad earnings report where there is a huge net loss and a major revenue miss, relative to past reports. At this point in time, Wayfair is on a trajectory to bankruptcy. I encourage everyone to view the most recent quarterly report to confirm this trajectory.
Also, please view additional details here for my bearish observations/explanations: stocktwits.com
There have been a lot of customer complaints lately with regards to Wayfair's business practices (e.g. high cost for return shipping, damaged items on arrival, serious shipping delays, items not as described as shown in photos, etc.).
Interest rates are rising, which would put further pressure on the company to repay its debt. It is already distressed. It has never earned a net profit in a single quarter. Higher rates will only further exacerbate the financial health of its balance sheet and cash flows.
Weekly Wayfair chart suggesting downtrend in upcoming weeksI have been following W for a while now. Negative earnings, albeit a growing market share and revenue, show that Wayfair still has a while to go before reaching sustainability from an investor standpoint. We should be finding a severe downtrend after finishing an elliot wave triangle with the most recent rally being recognized as wave E. Wayfair has burned me in the past by taking its sweet time to correct, although with recent uptrends in VIX and e-commerce corrections starting to appear (SHOP), I perceive a strong correction coming for W in the next 2 weeks.
As for my technical analysis beyond that, I've noticed a pattern at different fib levels showing downtrends after two weekly bars. Also, we see a lone white candle on the daily chart indicating a reversal coming.
I would love to hear any other input.
Thx
W Selloff Coming UpW will go down. Fast. I'd say probably a day before the 18th Annual Consumer Conference on June 19th where Michael Fleisher, CFO, is presenting.
Wayfair has consistently trended more negative in net income with every report, with a smaller number of shareholders than previously this year, I expect this bullish wave the come to abrupt stop.
I have put options exp: 5/29 (which are selling at a discount) and I expect them to maintain somewhat stagnant at this $108 resistance before a huge sell off causing W to drop to around $70-80.
I would love to know what ya'll think about this position. After this strong rally throughout May could Wayfair possibly maintain this momentum? Do you disagree, agree? Leave it in the comments.