WEEDCA trade ideas
Canopy Wedge with Scalp tradeI think it is a abcde triangle, could scalp to the higer resistence area.
Also:
If there is a high breakout to each side of the triangle, it will put the new trend of the stock in my opinion.
Do not take as a trade recommendation.
WEED the most likely to negate daily bear flagWEED on the daily timeframe left a bearish dark cloud candle and a possible bear flag pattern. Increasing bear volume is a concern for the bulls.
We are still within our larger daily pennant but that pattern will break bearish if we lose 57.60. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart will be less likely to play out with the loss of this level as well.
Key daily range: 57.60 - 66.23
Zooming into the 4hr we see a bit of a more hopeful picture with a tightening equilibrium. Bulls have seen enough of a bounce that we can anticipate them holding 57.60 support forming a higher low, and the extend of the pullback will determine the likelihood of breaking 64.63 resistance or forming a lower high relative to that level.
Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
WEED daily showing hidden bullish divergenceJust an update to my WEED idea from earlier this evening, all of which still applies.
A friend of mine has pointed out that WEED is forming some hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart . Our RSI and MACD oscillators are hitting lower lows, while the price hits higher lows. We still need an hourly higher low, so if the chart can break the daily MA20 and the RSI resistance line, we can start looking up to the upper limits of the downtrend line.
WEED bulls take a standI'll readily admit today took me completely by surprise. I studied numerous charts last night and came to one conclusion - the sector would not have a bounce today because WEED's 4hr RSI was not low enough; it was only 32, when generally bounces happen from 27 or lower. WEED opened the day with multiple rejections from the high of CGC premarket, then saw a bear break to a V-shape recovery. This wasn't the bounce setup I wanted, it wasn't the price action I expected, so I sat out.
I missed the entire 8% move and I'll sit that out every single time when I'm not comfortable with the setup.
Three things today are worth noting
WEED bulls didn't roll over after the most significant bear break since June;
We bounced 10% from the low of yesterday to high of today, from RSI levels on the 4hr chart that are not historic bounce levels; and
We finished at the high of the day with a big bullish candle
The volume is a little lower than I would have liked to see, but we are expecting to set a lower high on the daily; Anything under 66.19 will be that lower high. Our new must hold level is 57.60 and that is the range I'll be watching.
The bulls were in full control all day and set no hourly supports; the chart is very extended. We've bounced enough that we would anticipate a higher low above 57.60, and the bulls will then have to break hourly resistance to see continuation of the oversold bounce.
I've been of the opinion we won't get a bull run into Oct 17th because we've been running already for 6 weeks. I've been watching the sector for two weeks waiting for bulls to show up and buy, warning we'd see profit taking and a bear break, which we saw yesterday, but I'm starting to look at the sector a little bit more bullish after today because I'm picking up on clues of some underlying bull strength. I'm not saying we will run into Oct 17th, but I was ready to rule it out last night and today I'm not so sure anymore.
It's all about 57.60 - 66.19 right now, and I expect we will top out soon before needing a healthy pullback on the hourly chart in order to see continuation.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Crypto is too boring... WEED!Hello traders,
I will be switching gear a little bit as cryptocurrency trading is becoming a little bit of boring. Don't get me wrong, I simply stopped trading and I intended to go back again when I see the opportunity.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, we see that WEED is forming a daily equilibrium since September and it is hitting the buy zone which roughly overlaps with 50% fibonacci level. There was a huge buying volume in 5 mins before the day closed which indicate potential trend reversal.
There should be another wave of hype before legalization in Canada, therefore I will set two selling orders.
First one will be around $68-69 where I expect some blue trendline resistance. I will sell 50% of my share at this point.
Second one will be around $74-$75, as there may be a fake bull breakout before Oct 20th. Most likely it will be pumped and dumped so I will see all my shares around that range.
Stop loss: $56
Happy trading!
WEED bears assert dominance, finally breaking the daily uptrendWEED broke the daily equilibrium bearish today and closed down 6.5%. A small bounce at the end of the day cooled off RSI levels and we're no longer oversold on any timeframe. I was looking forward to an oversold bounce tomorrow but after hours trading further cooled off RSI and finished trading in a bear flag setup.
Two daily supports were broken today, after low of today our next support is 52.80 - that's a good 10% further to the downside. I'm personally going to be patient waiting for a setup I like. If we get a big gap down tomorrow, for example, opening below $55.00, that's a setup that will have me interested. Otherwise, RSI levels have cooled down enough at the end of day bounce that we could easily see another -6% day tomorrow.
I've been talking a lot in my past ideas about the psychology of what's going on right now in the sector. To further drive home how sentiment has shifted from bulls to bears, note that it's been a full three weeks since we've had two green days in a row - and this is when everybody has been expecting a huge bull run into October 17th. I'm not going to be entering positions based on what I want to happen, I'm going to watch the charts for a setup that favours a bull entry.
WEED bulls proving nothing to meWEED started the day Friday with a gap down open just above our key daily level, providing a great bottom-fishing opportunity to play in our daily equilibrium. The entire move was given back in the afternoon when news came out of Canopy withdrawing their 'Chronic By Dre' trademark request after forgetting to get permission from the rapper to use his name. The result is a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart, still within our daily equilibrium, and still very close to a bear break. Turning on after hours on the American ticker, you can see the price rejecting from EMAs and providing a bear flag setup if the low of the afternoon sell-off 48.55 breaks.
The past two weeks on the daily chart have been a chopfest and I've been sitting on my hands waiting for it to play out, so we can finally have some clarity for the short term. I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt here, they need to prove it to me. First step would be to hold our key level 62.02 and break Friday's high 66.19.
Key range for me is 52.81 - 72.00. Until one of these levels break, I don't expect much trading opportunity as the range is so narrow it's difficult to find a pattern to play off of. If we break bullish, I will be a buyer looking for a new all time high heading into Oct 17th, and if we break bearish, I'll be entering as a short looking for a 5-7% move to the downside.
If we break bearish I would zoom out to the weekly chart and anticipate forming a weekly equilibrium, with a new higher low above 52.81. After covering my short I would be looking to enter long, as a range of 52.81 - 72.00 is more than enough room to play within and not have to worry about choppy price action giving false signals.
Reading the psychology of the chart, the past four days have clearly seen traders taking profit as they run out of patience waiting for new buyers. Many people are anticipating a run into Oct 17th, but I'm becoming skeptical there are many people looking to buy in the next two weeks that haven't already bought in.
I'm remaining neutral on what I think will happen, but we are 1% away from a bear break on the daily and 14% away from a bull break. The weekly chart remains very healthy.
Canopy Growth AnalysisWEED is in a weekly uptrend with nearest significant weekly demand at 37.19. Buying at current prices is not advised.
On the daily, the upward momentum has been broken creating a range. Due to Weekly trend, longs are still favoured at lower prices.
Zones of Interest:
Demand @ 52.45
Supply @ 65.81
Big Bullish Bounce Coming Monday Low range Red - 64.29 - 65.00; Expected range - 67.46 - 65.00; High end- 65- 70. ps
News announcement on Dr. Dre Chronic patent infringement has no barring on operations or any tangible lawsuits as it was a filing made in error. Sell off was not warranted. News of crop failure is over substantiated by shorters. Stock rebound 100% for weed on Monday. Ranges are in fact most probable scenarios. 117K shares bought by swing trader at end of day Friday. Signalling huge buying opportunity. 20% rebound expected in the short term.
I do not own shares in Weed, but will be buying a position Monday. Volume is expected to be higher than normal.
WEED closing in on key supportWEED small gap down open today, pulling back on a significant increase in bear volume is certainly a concern for the bulls. The weak afternoon bounces certainly have me looking for possible bear-flag confirmation and to further downside; bulls must hold $62.02 and break above $65.05 to negate that flag potential.
Key support for the bulls to maintain the daily uptrend is $62.02. This sits in the middle of a low volume node, meaning a break could see price continue downwards towards $59.70 where we start to see much more volume support.
Resistance to break are $65.05 and $66.64 high of today.
I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt - a pullback this significant on increasing bear volume is a definite red flag for me.
How WEED (really, how CGC) moves from here will dictate the direction for the rest of the sector heading into legalization on October 17th. Losing that support at $62 makes it less likely we will see new highs heading into next month.
CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION (TSX:WEED) SHORT TERM ANALYSIS - 30MMy short term outlook for Canopy Growth Corporation (TSX:WEED). I believe we are in the midst of a small correction. I see the price bottoming out around the vicinity of $50 before we see a return to the higher upside trend. Going to continue to monitor and purchase shares at the bottom if my analysis holds true.
Looking at previous WEED.TO all time highs for clues into next wThe similarities I've highlighted here look better on WEED.TO than on CGC because Jan 15th saw the TSX trade but not the US exchanges. That said I'm looking at similarities in the first oversold bounces following the last two all time highs at 44.00 in January and 48.72 in June. Subsequent those bounces we saw a tightening range playing out across more than a week of trading before the equilibrium finally broke - down.
In each of the previous two examples the price set a lower low compared to the low of the oversold bounce. It's very possible this happens again, but with legalization being such a huge catalyst, it's also quite likely that support holds and we enter into a larger daily equilibrium prior to continuation of the current bull move.
The most important support to me heading into next week is 52.81. The best case scenario for the bulls is to hold 59.70 to show they're in absolute control over the coming days.
There are several fundamental things I'm watching here. CNBC is covering the MJ sector numerous times each day, and I've noticed a shift in their coverage from "stocks rocketing higher", to "we're in a bubble." This shifted with the implosion of TLRY on Wednesday and the 50% drop in share price within an hour (now down a full 65% from the highs). CNBC has an agenda here, and that's currently a risk to bullish positions in the sector.
Second is the amount of short interest in these stocks right now. each of WEED.TO, ACB.TO, and APH.TO are among the most shorted stocks on the TSX, and each have had an incredible increase in short positions opened over the course of September (regrettably I do not know if this information exists for CGC - if someone has this info please hit me up in the comment section below!)
Finally, there is the potential of other major catalysts such as global companies entering into the sector in the form of investments, partnerships, and other agreements or LOIs. These events have the potential of squeezing short positions to cover, now so they can enter again later.
Longs have something to worry about, Get out at some point soonThis is the perfect head and shoulders pattern . Tomorrow, will likely be your last opportunity to sell, before the daunting descent back to normalized levels. The pattern shown is an exact replica (perfect I may add) of the head and shoulders pattern found in trading. Mind you, with todays close, you will likely see a green day tomorrow, but this will soon be followed by a strong bearish reversal. My team and I will take a day off from trading, and as a fair warning, we will likely be shorting the MJ sector hard come Monday. Feel free to post comments below. I will be happy to provide you with TA. Have a great day, Guru
WEED - letting the dust settleWatching the WEED.TO range from low of Friday to high of today. Today's low bounced right off the golden pocket of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. I find the most clarity here on the 4hr and daily charts.
The bear volume today was significant
We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
