XPEV trade ideas
XPEV INC (NYSE)The downward trend is expected to continue.
Possible all time low - between around $9.54-$10.80
DISCLAIMER: This is an idea only and we are not responsible for any profits or losses arising from trading.
XpevAfter trending up this rising wedge here we have finally seen some rejection. This could be gearing up for another drop lower if XPEV cannot pop above 33$ and hold we are in for another leg lower. Bearish rising wedge. Break down 70% of the time. Probabilities are high for this to slip and lose support. Be cautious. Prepare shorts Target 25$ and 18$
Fundamentals on XPEV over NIOIt was apparently last year but having such little history, in a nascent market, the data points couldn't be trusted, yet. However I took a large position in Xpev over NIO for a few reasons.
1) They are not competitors, from a price point perspective. Xpev makes a car by my estimate 90% as good as NIOs and 80% as good as Tesla, but they sell for 50-60% of the cost. Nio is a direct competitor of Tesla. Being a start-up funding/attrition is key and fighting Tesla is capital intensive.
2) Speaking of, Xpev is copying more than innovating, though slilght innovations on the things they copy exist. It's cheaper and faster to copy than it is to innovate. NIO made a bold move adopting a battery swap format. It could work in time but that's the problem, in time. It's a capital intensive and geographically disadvantaged strategy to build swap stations, though it's innovative and clever to offer cars at sale prices minus the battery, and leasing the battery to the customer. I like that recurring revenue and lower entry point potential, but again it's a battle of attrition and NIOs strategy is so capital intensive that even it's short term prospects are murky. Xpev is simple. Simple i like.
3) As you can see in the chart this is playing out on the balance sheet and revenue. Xpev from a unit sales perspective has been catching up to NIO, I attribute much of that to their price point and marketing. But also from a balance sheet perspective they are burning less cash so while margins are lower per unit sold, their capex is also lower compared to NIO to balance that out in favor of XPEV.
4) Bonus reason, XPEV is focused. Mainly China/Asia customer base with no plans to expand to NA. Currently testing select parts of Europe. Again, simple is good. Transport logistics, local regulations, taxes/tariffs all create levels of complexity, complexity increases cost an lowers margins. Simple is good.
I see XPEV out performing NIO throughout 2022. Although I do believe should the overall EV market expand fast enough, NIO will do just fine and a rising tide will certainly float their boat as well.
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged last week and reached the HKD87.6 support that we talked about last week. It then craved a lower low before settling at HKD102.60 on Friday. With the latest price action, a close above HKD115.90 could trigger a near term rebound towards the HKD143 resistance. Bear in mind, price action as been creating lower lows and lower highs since Dec 2021, hence any rebound could be limited with traders are trading with the wind on their faces. Hence a close below HKD100 psychological support could provide short selling opportunity with a retest of HKD71.80 support or beyond.
XPEV Price TargetPrice target for XPEV is $33.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged and hit first downside objective HKD103.4, as anticipated last week. As price action showing lower lows and lower highs since January 2022, EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing bearish crossovers, there is a possibility of Xpeng reaching HKD87.6 support. This level is Fibonacci Extension 1.618 levels, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
should go higher if support holds 👀 nice double bottom off support here, looking to go long over 27.72, short below 25.31
XPEV: If you like it at $26, you will LOVE it at $6Here is another disgusting chart for you to avoid like NIO. This stock will fall more than 90% from its high. Don't get caught holding the bag.
XPEV Lost support of an ascedning triangle coming back to down to previous support could create a double bottom here potentially be cautious but watch this area of 26
XPEV I have Ben averaging in on this around 27 and 28.40. Broke some
Small downtrend resiatnce. Resiatnce key area at 30$. Daily is trash but coul be lagging here. Has been beat down smaller time frame holding up bullish still obviosuly play with caution. Daily is only a small minute spinning top. So still alot of indescion
XPEV - Half full or half empty?Dear subscribers, lets come together to discuss the massive movements in Xpeng... NYSE:XPEV
As the title of this article implies, today we are going to look at the different viewpoints about the future of Xpeng after the massive sell-off in the last days.
It can be clearly stated that the last wave 1-2 setup is invalidated with the breach of the resistance at 33.52$.
Based on the movements of the last few months, we have updated our chart setup to a very bearish scenario and do not expect a direct recovery in the coming days.
Due to the increased volatility, we estimate that we are in a downward wave 1-2 setup and currently we have witnessed a loss of -37% since the high at wave 2 (red).
Theoretically, the wave 3 target at $31.94 (1,618 extension) is almost reached, yet Xpeng can continue to fall and we expect an upcoming breach of the $30 level.
After that, we should start a small recovery based on wave 4, which will most likely bring us back to the region of 34$-36$.
After that, we estimate further losses as very likely and assume a break of the previous low at $22.73.
Predicting the future correction target is very difficult, but we view a correction to the $20 level as realistic.
There is a small chance, that the correction could come to an early end at this price levels, however the possibility for this is very low.
We would like to remind every subscriber that we as "Mendenmein-Capital" are clearly long term oriented and will continue to hold our "Acquisition #1"
If Xpeng should hit new lows, we will add more positions to our holdings and won't sell them for the next few years.
Keep in mind that this is a buy and hold position - unleveraged and without a stop-loss.
Current setup:
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 40.76$
STOP-LOSS: NONE
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XPENGXPENG (9868) price action favors the short sellers. This because EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing deadly crosses, a bearish sign. In addition, it also forms higher highs and higher lows since Dec 2021. Hence it is likely to further extend its downtrend and present short selling opportunities once HKD115.9 level broke thru. First downside objective is HKD103.4 while second downside objective is HKD87.6. Both levels are Fibonacci Extension 1.272 and 1.618 levels respectively, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
XPeng Looking to Lose 80% of It's ValueSoon we will be Breaking down through the Demand Line and Triggering a BAMM down to the logscale 1.618 extension of a Bullish Deep Crab
should continue lower as expected 🚨xpev broke below trend support and hit every target I mentioned in my last analysis! love to see it recently tried climbing back above trend support but failed.. now support = resistance (bearish pattern)if we break this local trend support my next targets 34.08-31.46
like and follow for more <3
Today‘s analysis of XPEV in stocksIn the D1 candle chart of XPEV (China's new energy vehicle Xiaopeng automobile), the price is in the downward channel. Both top deviation and KDJ show a downward trend.
Gap up, Range tradeGap up due to news on positivity on market share.
Involvement of company centric into mainland China.
Expansion into key EV markets
Signals of positive management as background.
Upsides:
Gap up into range.
1HR held despite inflation woes hitting market.
Downsides:
Pullback and back down into swing.
TF played on a higher TF, potential risk for volume/market factors to affect while waiting for trade to play out.
XPEV - back to 30We have a diamond pattern that worked well.
Now its overbought again and we left 2 gaps behind.
Im sure we will see another crash on SPY.
so Tesla, Nio and Xpev should follow. My final target is 30 but I would take profit after every gap fill.
41-44 SHORT ZONE
1.TP 37,20 (first gapfill)
2.TP 32,40 (second gapfill)
3.TP 30,40 (double bottom)
after this Im bullish
not investment advice
XPEV the real Tesla of ChinaXPeng is beating Nio and Li deliveries.
Xpeng 12,922 deliveries in January Market Cap 29.562B
Nio 9,652 vehicles in January Market Cap 36.79B
Li 12,268 Li ONEs Market Cap 27.712B
They have cheaper cars and Ark invest keeps buying XPEV stock constantly.
In the chart, the price bounced from the strong support of 31.5 and is heading to the $41 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XPENG upside $49, 65XPENG has bottomed and broken the trend line. Upside remains towards 50+ by next year mid we should be seeking a higher high despite of Evergrand debt.
$xpev analysisEV sector showing weakness. Allow me to reiterate that $XPEV as well as $NIO will react to $TSLA earnings
Losing 200 day EMA
Symmetrical triangle formed
Waiting for the bottom trendline touchWaiting for the bottom trendline touch line. Its now in the channel
