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Germany 40

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DE40 trade ideas

GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection. - Confluence Factors: - Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation. - Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management. - 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity. - TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment. - Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest. - Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup. Execution Plan: - Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG. - Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2. - Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level. Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
DAX forming a top?GER40 - 24h expiry Sequence of 7 positive daily performances broken. We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains. Short term MACD has turned negative. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 20415 (stop at 20535) Our profit targets will be 20115 and 20025 Resistance: 20350 / 20474 / 20600 Support: 20260 / 20200 / 20000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure. - Confluence Factors: - Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias. - FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point. - Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone. - Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 . Confluence Factors: - Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement. - Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside. - Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the 1H FVG. - Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone. - Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure. Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
09.12.24This week, markets will focus on U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report could shape Federal Reserve rate decisions ahead of their final 2024 meeting, with inflation concerns heightened by strong jobs data and tariff risks. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to deliver its fourth rate cut of the year on Thursday, amid weak business activity, political instability in Europe, and a weaker euro. Investors will also monitor the resilience of the ongoing stock market rally, as record-high indices face potential pressure from key economic data. US30: Price took lows at 44712.97 then price reversed sweeping Friday highs 45102.95 before trading lower towards 44606.01 price still traded within the previous weeks range. Already this week price has pushed past my first target of 44604.60. I still see price pushing lower towards lows are 44463.09 and 43521.40 GER40: After price broke Octobers highs of 19679.3 price continued to rally higher toward my goal of 20550. Germany as the biggest economy in the Eurozone and major export driven economy, many factors have supported the GER40
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by S0202Trades
DE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour AnalysisDE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour Analysis The German Index (DE40) has been strongly bullish over the past week. However, I’m currently avoiding any long trades, and here’s why: Whenever the market rallies sharply—especially with DE40—there’s a high probability of a sudden crash before you can react. While the 4-hour time frame shows slight corrections, these pullbacks lack strength and conviction. Impulsive entries at this stage could expose your capital to unnecessary risk. Ideal Trading Scenarios: Fibonacci Retracement Setup: Wait for the price to pull back to at least the 50% retracement level on the Fibonacci scale. If the price shows clear signs of bullish momentum or a pullback at this level, it could signal a good opportunity to go long. Key Level Test at 19,670: If the price continues to drop instead of stabilizing at the Fibonacci retracement level, watch for it to test the key support zone at 19,670. Once the price confirms this level, it may provide a solid entry point for a long trade. Liquidity Sweeps and Wicks: Look for a liquidity sweep, such as a significant wick to the downside, indicating a potential reversal. This confirmation can offer an additional layer of security for long trades. Important Notes: Protecting your capital should always be your top priority. Avoid impulsive trades during shallow corrections, as they often lack follow-through. Be patient and wait for clear retracements or liquidity sweeps before entering the market. Making no money is still better than losing money. Final Thoughts: Patience is the key to success in such a scenario. Avoid revenge or impulsive trading, and let the market come to you. Focus on protecting your capital and only act when the setup aligns with your strategy. That’s it for today’s analysis. I hope this helps you in your trading decisions. Don’t forget to like and comment if you find this valuable—it keeps me motivated to provide more insights!
ICMARKETS:DE40
by KainT21
My expectations of DAX!Hi guys, I hope you are doing well ** The used time frame for my analysis is 1h frame on the chart, however, I used too the 6H, 8H and daily frames to see the bigger image which all support still my decision. ** As you see the purple trend line which acts as a strong support to the price to push up from. ** The red triangle is very important here too, as the break through (not by a wick but by a closed closed body) in either way will determine the direction if it will be bullish or bearish however, I see the pure wish to break to the upside of the triangle towards 44460-44470 ** I hit already on my previous idea for Dax 4 TPs in a row and I am looking to the 5th one here so I created a separate idea for to make it clear. ** The whalers understand well that small retail investors are looking to short so they enjoy hitting their stop losses and in mean time they did not reach to their target yet as I said that early enough to catch the bullish wave profit and I see still a room to go further up. My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by moustafa_marei
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds