Approaching short-term bottom, watch for potential rebound(The following is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please make your own judgment before making any decisions.)
Last week, after rebounding to 21,075 on Monday, the price maintained a downward trend.
Currently, the price is approaching a key short-term support level and has fallen below the 200-day moving average. There is a high probability that the market will bottom out and rebound in near term.
Potential Rebound Scenario
If the market rebounds next week, the price may consolidate and form a base on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, it should at least break above 20,700 and stay above this level.
Continued Downtrend Scenario
If the rebound holds, the price should remain above 19,650. However, if it breaks below this level and stays below, further downside to 19,000 is likely.
Watch Wednesday's CPI Data
If Wednesday’s inflation data meets or lower than expectations, it could provide fundamental support for a market rebound. The initial rebound targets for next week are 20,700 and 20,900. If the CPI data is positive an upward breakout toward 21,345 could occur.
Further Downside Risk After Rebound
Even if the price breaks above 21,345, attention should be paid to its behavior in the 21,400–21,600 range and whether overbought conditions arise. The market may resume a downtrend after completing the rebound, so caution is advised when chasing highs.
