VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18 - I am very long volatility on the longer term timeframes and mostly at the end of the year, but I believe with Biden forgiving more loans than most, combined with the Demos need to keep "Fear" aka the VIX/Volatility Suppressed preferably under $20, I expect suppression manipluative tactics on ++$18 Rises until Q4.
This is for info and educational purposes only, my bias is speculative so form your own and cross check mine and others before making "only an informed" decision!
VIX trade ideas
VIX: An AnalysisAs we look at the VIX we note the historical impact the level 20 has had in the past. The last two times the VIX peaked above 20 were October 3rd 2023 and 30th 2023 which were the two bottoms of the SPY in the last 6 months. Using VIX and noting the significance of action above 20 is very important to understanding the psychology of the market.
Use 20 as a key level to either hold above for a long term pullback for the SPY or just a spike on the VIX and a bottom out on SPY
VIX Trading StrategyWhen the VIX is high, it typically indicates that investors are anticipating increased market volatility and potential downside risk. While this might seem counterintuitive, it can present opportunities for savvy investors. A high VIX often accompanies market sell-offs, which can lead to lower stock prices. For investors with a long-term perspective, high volatility can create attractive entry points to purchase quality stocks at discounted prices. Additionally, elevated volatility can offer opportunities for traders to profit from short-term price swings through strategies such as options trading or swing trading. However, it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before investing during periods of high volatility, as market downturns can be unpredictable, and risk management is crucial. Overall, when the VIX is high, it can signal potential buying opportunities for investors who are prepared to weather short-term fluctuations in pursuit of long-term gains.
TVC:VIX
VIX Volatility approaching a peak. Bottom sign for stocks?Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high:
It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low.
This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg).
The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate.
Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed.
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VIX Has Broken This TL for the First Time in a Year and a Half!VIX has broken to the upside of this descending trend line as the world holds their breath over the Israel/Iran conflict. This is the first time fear has broken above this trend line since September of 2022. Pair this observation with the current dollar strength and you know which way the markets will go, down.
The VIX weekly is spiking, and a bull flag is forming.The VIX weekly is spiking, and a bull flag is forming, which could trigger a breakout from the wedge. Higher lows forming and wedge getting tighter.
More volatility is returning to the market. Risk off 📴 mode activated.
This usually translates into more bearish bias in markets moving forward ⏩🐻
VIX & UVXY Update: Short-Term Bearish Outlook Amidst Loose MoneyStay informed with CandlestickNinja's analysis on the VIX and UVXY! Despite recent spikes, a short-term bearish outlook prevails due to loose money actions. Follow us on TradingView for more insights. #VIX #UVXY #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketSentiment
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
There is no in-betweenNot only will people be repositioning for the "Santa rally", but tech earnings will create a lot of distrust in the "big 7". These stocks are single handedly holding this market up, it will take the slightest news to make the first domino fall.
The second we get confirmation, play it long.
Remember, the market has its ways to do the opposite of what everyone is thinking.
Dollar, VIX, Gold & Silver are Spiking! What Could This IndicateTraders,
In this video I'll cover the spikes we are witnessing in the dollar, fear, and precious metals (specifically gold). We'll discuss what this might indicate to us from a geo-political/macro-economic perspective. Inflation continues to tick up. The SEC continues to attack big players (tokens/coins) in the crypto space without providing rules for how to play fairly. We'll track the current progress on stocks pulling back. Bitcoin dominance had done something it has never done before. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to track sideways while altcoins continue their deeper pullback. Plus, I'll analyze Ethereum Classic and at the end of the video I have some news from my followers.
P.S. - Minutes after producing the video, I read that Iran plans to attack Israel. The charts were telling us something. Is this it?
The trend of higher peaks and troughs is brokenThe VIX’s structure with higher peaks and troughs became distorted after the FOMC meeting. Despite this being a positive development for the markets, it might be proper to stay attentive to the VIX for a couple more days to watch out for any potential rekindling of volatility.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the broadening structure.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX cycles analysis for the future behavior predictionTVC:VIX
Third 7-years cycle of the VIX index reducing starts this year and will long till the end of 2030.
In my point of view, this means, that the level of the greed starts to grow year-to-year, which will have an effect for the potential of the long positions in the long-term period of time.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs #trends #index
VIX Volatility Index Analysis: Preparing for a Bounce to $16 | 3Join us for a comprehensive analysis of the VIX Volatility Index, exploring its current position in the danger zone and our expectations for a bounce towards $16. Discover key insights into market volatility and potential future trends in this in-depth update.
Vix broke 4 month trend / Will retest trend TomorrowThis Rising wedge is something I've been monitoring on Vix for a few weels now and usually when these break they will retest and if they don't break through you already know what to do :)
I'm expecting us to fall tmmrw due to Powell at 9am to 518-520 area on spy I expect us to retest the trend line I have drawn in the Tan color and then reject and will give the grren light on calls for 2-3 days I will personally be grabbing Amd $177.5 calls and Spy 520-521 calls both with next Friday exp.