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Until the VIX breaks this level, it remains range-boundA quick look at our VIX chart shows us that we are range-bound since June. Exactly, as I expected and have stated numerous times in past posts. But now, with the U.S. credit rating downgrade, fear has spiked. Will we break this range and move up? We could, yes. But to do so, we need the VIX to move above that 15.94 level with confirmation. As of today, the VIX can still be technically classified as range-bound at all time 2-year lows. Of course, when the VIX remains low, the market will remain relatively positive. This is bullish. Stay tuned for further updates here. Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
VIX - THE RECESSION INEVITABLE?The "VIX = Volatility Index S&P500" has predicted us in the last 3 decades, quite reliable possible "extreme movements". = Why in the next 2-years such an event could occur, we will take a closer look in the following article. WHAT IS THE VOLATILITY INDEX S&P500 = Expresses the expected range of fluctuation of the U.S. stock index S&P 500. = To determine volatility, it measures the distribution of options that run on these stocks. TABLE OF CONTENTS - 1st part = VIX - 2nd part = VIX PROPERTIES + USE - 3rd part = CURRENT SITUATION - 4th part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "PAST." If you compare the past of the "VIX" with the S&P500, you will notice that the - 36.47 - mark played / continues to play a very important role. Every time the "VIX" exceeded the - 36.47 -, there was extreme volatility in the S&P500 and other asset classes. PAST EXTREME MOVEMENTS . > 01.10.1998 > 01.10.2008 > 03/02/2020 (near crash) Why the VIX has such a big impact on the S&P500 and how we can actively factor this into our trading follows in part two. PART TWO "VIX CHARACTERISTICS" The "VIX" provides information on how serious fluctuations could be based on the option volume. = "VIX" goes up -> Statistically more likely that the S&P500 will fall. = "VIX" goes down -> Probably that the S&P500 gains slightly. Additionally, it can be noted that as soon as the "VIX" gets close to - 36.47 - many market participants take profits. WHY IS THIS SO? The market has already reached a "VERY VOLATILE point". > Price - FALLS - fast = SHORT positions will take profits > BUY > Price - RISES - fast = LONG positions will take profits > SELL CONSIDERATION OF "VIX" IN TRADING? "VIX" = Negative correlation to the S&P500 = "VIX" goes up = S&P500 goes down. = This negative correlation occurs because institutional investors use options to hedge against high volatility (hedge against stocks). RISING "VIX" = less liquidity in the stock markets + position reduction = stocks fall FALLING "VIX" = More liquidity in the equity markets + position building = equities rise PART THREE "CURRENT SITUATION" > The "CORONA crash" could not make a new HH in the "VIX", which is why this could still be pending at the current view. = 2020 the market "fell" "35.41%" in the SPX = 2008 the market "fell" "57.69%" in the SPX With the technical analysis, I come with the current constellation, to a higher "VIX" value than the 2008 reached. = which would mean a bigger sell-off. > Since 2018, we have been testing a "falling resistance line." = Similar resistance lines resulted in the past when broken, with significant volatility + movement in the S&P500 (= traditional markets). = The current resistance line has been respected several times, resulting in reactions. > The "rising resistance line" since 1990 + "the arc" + "the macroeconomic environment", suggest another "VIX" breakout . > The rising resistance line was tested at the two "extremes" - 01.10.1998 + 01.10.2008 - on. = this meant, both times, the temporary end of the extreme volatility = in 2020 we could not reach it, which additionally suggests another "breakout". > If the price trend continues to consider the direction of the arc, then this leads us to a much higher target than 2008 / ever before. PART FOUR CONCLUSION "If the VIX is high, then it's time to buy, if the VIX is slow, it's time to go" > Regardless of the outcome of the analysis, anyone who hasn't used the VIX before should now have gained a little insight. The future looks anything but bright for now, however we can use this time to learn and grow . The VIX could delay the final decision for another 2-years, which is certainly to the advantage of each of us. = Despite this still "long" period of time, a decision will be made in the future. > Let's discuss it in the comments and exchange our perspectives, your view on the whole thing would interest me "burning". If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would greatly appreciate a review of it. Thank you and happy trading!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
12
VIX Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers , VIX looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The instrument tests an important psychological level 13.48 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 14.01 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
VLong
by AnabelSignals
3
VIX Will Go Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for VIX. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 13.76. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 14.42 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:VIXLong
by SignalProvider
9
VIX CHEAT SHEET (IIV) Options StyleHIGH PROFITABILITY OPTIONS TRADING COURSE options trading cheat sheet recommend using 8 ema for historical data 3 ema for current trend following 6 sec timer .. follow trend use trend channels but convert to protractor operations and follow trend in a protractor manner as if setting a clock. options trading are not about buying and holding market although you can do the same by setting the timer to longer periods this style of trading is very profitable. Through the perception of volatility and depth of momentum a shorter timer will allow investors to follow trend quicker, this called (building the trend) the spikes will allow you to enter on trades once you have confirmed direction of market and aligned with your signals. if spikes are no good trade is no good. MOMENTUM IS YOUR LIFE VOLATILITY IS DEATH BUT CAN BE MANIPULATED IF USED CORRECTLY. always recon and technical analysis on assets and underlying assets and identify resistance to counter trends in zone or halt trading until trend continues. Vix and underlying asset will be key to reading what will happen next so keep track of resistance on underlying asset at most. white ray lines are 15min interval resistant areas. purple ares are 3 min interval resistant areas monitors include: vix - 3 min/5 min chart Asset-10 sec chart/ 15 sec chart /30sec chart Underlying asset : 2min chart/3min chart/5 min chart/15 min chart Timer for payout - 6 secs/ 12 sec / 47 Sec/1:30/1:50/ 2:10.
TVC:VIX
by Sylynt056
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
VIX 2008 Repeat VolatilitySee the illustration traced from the 2008 volatility spike leading into the GFC. As it can be seen visually, the similarities are present. The news cycle appears to be dominated by a similar set of events, including the collapse of the 2020's version of Bernie Madoff, SBF. I doubt the volatility will play out in a continuous fashion, as the Fed as new tools to their disposal. I expect some difference in the delay or outcome, but not a significant one.
TVC:VIXLong
by rwoods187
1