$SPX $VIX trade setupFirst, let's take a look at the calendar over the next couple of weeks and before FOMC
- 3/10 Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)
- 3/14 CPI
Data the Fed will need for their next big decision, will they stick to 25bps or push forward with a 50bps.
This past week, the SPX was able not only to hold the 3940 200DMA but also reclaim prices above 4000. Time will tell if we continue grinding higher into FOMC, but at this point our job is to look for a way to defend our portfolios against another 5% drawdown.
With the VIX being so close to the lows of the year, it might be good time to play defense. June 30/40 VIX got some really good volume last couple of days, as of Friday they traded at $0.69 and the $20 Calls expiring Marth 15th starting to look attractive.
After closing our $SPX Call Credit Spread 4400/4450 for some nice 70+% profits, and now with our 3800/3750 Put Credit Spread at 40% maybe it is time to switch and build a position on the $VIX.
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VIX trade ideas
Highest $VIX has been in a long time, Stocks prepping for run?$VIX pumped hard these last 2 days
Was interesting that it hadn't done much considering how much the #markets had fallen.
However, it could be short term topping out as #stocks are oversold atm.
25 has been an issue for some time now.
Other data is showing that we are likely setting up for a nice run.
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The problem is that we don't know what we really want. What makes us happy is not to get what we want.
But to dream about it. Happiness is for opportunists.
So I think that the only life of deep satisfaction is a life of eternal struggle, especially struggle with oneself.
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VixPurple wave - 50sma
White wave 21ema
Some things I notice happened this week.
1.Daily MACD crossed over bearish
2. Daily CCI curling over
3. Daily RSI breaking uptrend
Those 3 things spell out bearish Technicals for the VIX.
Bounced off 18.00 friday with a hourly RSI at 20 and A oversold CCI on 1hour and 2hour..
I'm looking for a bounce up to 21 and 50 MA early next week and then we will see if the ADP non Farm will break vix out from under resistance or send it back back to 18.
If we break 18 this week the next strong support is at 17... if you go to your monthly chart and draw a trendline from 2017 lows until now you'll see we recently bounced on Feb 2 lows. Can't see thus market going back up 4300-4400 unless vix breaks back below 17
So I'm long until 20.30 , then let's see what happens
Vix Pulled back inside wedge here and is attempting to break 21ema and 50sma support.
Closing gap at 20, if vix closes below 50sma I don't foresee a Catalyst big enough to break it back over resistance until Job report next week. This pullback would allow equities to bounce I the mean time..
Once 20.35 goes things will drop quickly
Vix Since the original breakout the vix has did the usual falling wedge move which is retest and bounce. The movements since the breakout has now formed a Pennant, if we breakout of this Pennant to the upside , the most likely target will be the 200sma. A move to the 200sma would likely send the spy to 385-387.
After that type of move I'd expect a consolidation and pullback in which the market would dead cat
Contrary perspective, inside this pennant is also a double top , but the vix would need to break pennant support and fall below 20.90 for the market to really rally.
Reference note, 22 is tough resistance