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Is Volatility the New Normal? Hi I'm Goose and I'm apparently obsessed with the VIX this week. I would say I've reached a point of borderline stalker, going through historical data, working up average all time range theories, and ultimately writing a script that will give me a bar count inside and outside of a date and price range and the percentage of time during that period that the VIX has gone wild. I used this script compare these statistics across the daily chart in different sections of time. Now, I did this because I am anticipating a return to mean with the VIX any moment now. I'm tapping my fingers and getting impatient. And not because I'm waiting for a rally, I mean, a rally would be cool, but because this has gone on long enough really. So I decided to compare the 2008 Crash historical data with the more recent Covid data. If you haven't read the in's and out's, the timeline and the reasons why, go do that right now. Or just watch The Big Short a couple of times for the cliff notes. But for the sake of this chart, I marked up some of the important moments during what is now known as the Housing Crisis/Great Recession. Theoretically I could have made arguments to drag this period out to 2014, but comparably it makes little sense and frankly, even further drives my theory, so I ended the period when the market had recovered its 50% losses from pre crash peaks. Keep in mind, current markets recovered and S&P Futures made a new high in just under 6 months from the Covid Crash. So this is already an unfair comparison. And that is kind of my point. Comparable factors like unemployment and U.S. Homeownership are actually contradictory for the most part if you omit the summer of 2020. And if you're in the group, as I am, that believes low unemployment numbers promote higher inflation numbers, then we could argue inflation begun, albeit transitory, in May and July of 2018 when unemployment dropped below 4% and really got a foothold in 2019. All it needed was a supply chain interruption. And I know Covid takes the blame for that, but that had started also. China trade, pine beetles, metal shortages, coffee , etc... So when Covid whooped the employment numbers 10 points from March at 4.4%, to April at 14.7%, it basically created a sling shot effect with equities. Come August of 2020 when those numbers rapidly dropped to 8.4% we made brand new highs. And within a year we had dropped back to where we started in the upper 4% range. I know I'm on a tangent, but why is this important? Because in the Covid Market, we turned those numbers around in 1 year, as opposed to the 5 years it took to recover AFTER the end of the Recession and its 5 year recovery. Soooo... That's why I'm not counting that period, and why I'm calling out VIX on is behavior. So lets get to my point. Is the new normal volatile AF ? As it currently stands, and based on a range of $10-$20 dollars which I determined to be fair visually for the initial part of this work up, the VIX has spent 5% more days above the standard range. Now 5% isn't a deal breaker. We can find dramatic headlines that will excuse random volatility but I will argue we are at a crossroads. If we continue to stay above $20, we risk having to work hard and longer to get that figure back down. Remember calculating your GPA , but in reverse. Eventually the shock and awe of a +$30 VIX won't induce the same FOMO reaction and things may get really weird. When VIX goes into the new year, the powers that be will need to reign her in to avoid decoupling on any given Wednesday instead of just low liquidity holidays. My theory actually goes further down the rabbit hole when I narrowed down a true 50% average range, wait for it.... $10 - $16.75! YES! The overall, from inception, average high of range sits at $16.75. And pop on the tin foil hat because with that range, both the Housing Crisis/Great Recession AND the Covid Market are sitting at 91% above range. I checked that 3 times to be sure and I did not include that in the frame of this chart as it already had enough scribbling all over it, but if you explore to the bottom of the chart you will see a smashed up mess of it. So if your listening Market Makers, shut it down, shut it down now. And if that is what you are setting up to do as I have already speculated in a previous work up, well done! Keep it up. I know for a fact that the VIX is heavily relied upon by many successful traders in many different products for directional bias, let's not ruin it shall we... On this chart you will see the table bar counts for inside and outside of price range for the specified period as well as the total bar count and the percentage of bars outside of that range. That means up OR down so the period between the Recession and Covid has 12% outside of range, but you will notice that it goes below the range as well. When the price range was moved down beneath the lows to $8, it lowered the percentage by 3 points. I have also labeled some fun facts that occurred during the historical period to show a bit about why I choose the dates that I did. Leave a comment for a heated debate, or to tell me how cool I am, or that I'm just a silly Goose. en.wikipedia.org www.statista.com data.bls.gov
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
VIX setting up for a Santa Rally?I've spent a lot of time drawing on the VIX chart today since we are coming up on an area that defines 3 separate ascending wedge patterns with one starting before the 2020 run that we have tapped twice without making a lower low. And although that lower trendline is still quite a way down, currently at 16.57, it's not a far stretch if retail sales come out strong, JP keeps quiet, and there are plans for a Santa rally lurking behind the scenes. With that being said, we have just broken the next oldest pattern, and the youngest one not much farther down at 19.66 and the .86 fib of the 2020 run up is smack in the middle at 20.13 so for tomorrow, I have potential reversal area from 20.44 to 20.13 with 20.13 to 19.71 becoming bearish down to below 19. My argument for the upside is a bit more hocus pocus as I had to put on a pitchfork to even feel good about it, but we made the inside candle Friday, which, big deal, it was a half day, but following that with an outside candle on a retail rich week wouldn't shock me at all. So I'm gonna throw my dart. If we gap up, we hit around 21.30 and come back down to close between 19.89 and 20.13 in which case the case for breaking down past 19.66 becomes more likely. SANTA RALLY!!! But, if we gap down into that bounce zone and don't break the 20.13, then we still close high and and head back to Wednesdays high. I like this case more if we bounce off the Daily low and just double bottom. BUT, I'm still leaning to a high of 22.30 on the WEEK, just because I feel like the case is better stated for a downside overall. We just have much more reason to pull back down with the biggest reason being that we haven't retested that 2020 pattern for over a year. Historically I don't see any rhyme or reason except that VIX does tend to rise during December if only for a day, and even that isn't well structured. Sooo... who the knows then the VIX is gonna VIX. What we do know is that we have spent so much time in what used to be high volatilely territory that we've started to make a home here and that contradicts what the VIX is designed to do. We've held above averages, between $10-20, for more days and gone higher than we did in the '08 housing crisis, and all while our economy is too strong for its own good. So we've either become fairly melodramatic, OR we're setting up residence. If the latter is true then we can just throw out all historical data that predates circa 2018 and start anew. I personally want to see what happens if we break down below 16.50. Do we stabilize and go back to a boring trend style value market? Or does everyone freak out and rabidly buy everything in sight. All we can do is wait, and look to the right.
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
$VIX Can Rise Soon - Watch Out #VIXTraders and Investors, US Indices have had a good rally. Dow Jones has been the leading one which printed the one of the biggest 3M bullish engulfing candles ever. SnP500 is also creating 3M bullish engulfing bit has been lagging behind the US30. NASDAQ (NAS100) is the lagging behind at the last spot. Russell 2000 has been also printing a bullish engulfing candle on the 3m Time frame. On the other hand, in the UK, UK100 (FTSE100) also has been going really strong. US30 did not have a single stock in a bearish category since 12th of October 2022! This also has broken an important level and trend line. It is overextended at the moment and a correction could be due. This has a perfect confluence with VIX (Volatility Index) which currently is in a demand zone and an FCP zone. VIX can still fall further down because a pattern before failed, and a trend line was broken which makes it more bearish. But for now, a bounce could be due because of the demand zone. This can produce a bounce to the upside which can also coincide with corrections across indices and possibly precious metals too. As we enter the last week of November, we can expect some good moves in the market which can turn into short term trading opportunities. US30: (3M Time Frame) US500: (3M Time Frame) US100 (3M Time Frame) UK100 (3M Time Frame) RUSSELL2000 (3M Time Frame) Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
CBOE:VIXLong
by vikinsa
Lower and LowerGenerally, the VIX Index tends to have an inverse relationship with the S&P 500 Index. This negative correlation has earned the VIX Index the title "fear gauge" because VIX Index has a tendency to move up quickly when the broad market declines with velocity. Right now the VIX is getting lower and the market is moving up. The comparison between the VIX Index and movement in the S&P 500 Index is close, about an 80% correlation, which confirms the reality of the two generally tending to move in opposite directions most of the time. In addition, the correlation generally tends to remain relatively stable throughout different market conditions. No recommendation
TVC:VIX
by lauralea
14
🔥 The VIX Daily RSI Hit Oversold For The First Time Since 2004As the title suggests, the VIX (the volatility index on the SP500) has hit oversold (<30) on the daily RSI for the first time since December 2004. Scroll back and see for yourself. A falling VIX is generally accompanied by bullish markets, while a rising VIX is often accompanied by bearish markets. If you wish to know more about the VIX, Investopedia has a great article on it. In my view, it's highly likely that the VIX will be reversing very soon, which will most likely lead to a bearish reaction of the stock markets and therefore crypto. If you're planning to take risky long bets, consider postponing this. An oversold VIX only adds more risk to the trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by FieryTrading
12
(GBPUSD) Wed, 23 November 2022 SetupOANDA:GBPUSD GBPUSD Neutral bias Status: Open short position and waiting for breakeven confirmation What do I see? - VIX could go bullish as it's on its major Daily low, resulting in USDCHF going bullish. - Low volatility as the market waits for Durable Goods Orders MoM, New Home Sales, and FOMC Minutes report. - Could result in a sideways market in the long run, as people couldn't conclude the direction of the market. Technically speaking both the bulls and the bears are equally strong right now, so let's see how the reports would go. What I would do? - If the reports got a bullish response, I'll go for breakeven and reconsider going bullish. vice versa. Happy Trading! Good luck!
TVC:VIX
by Tenozen