ATMP trade ideas
VXX - Amazing Trade Setting UpA solid Hedge for VIX Complex Traders is the VXX.
VXX is comprised of Short Volatility Instruments - M1 (or Front Month of
VIX Futures Contract "July" until tomorrow's settlement) and M2 (August
VIX Futures Contract).
Yesterday we observed the Short End of the VIX Curve trade to "Par" where
July and August traded to 2460 simultaneously.
The Short End of the Curve immediately was SOLD heavily as the threat of
Backwardation was not to be permitted in the Curve.
When Backwardation in the Volatility Curve occurs, it is a leading indicator
of the "Potential" for a large move higher in Price of the Complex. This
threat was SOLD into immediately.
We immediately SOLD VXX against Buys we had opened @ 20 on the July VX
and began selling July as price moved to 21s - 2365 was our preferred exit
pivot for the burst higher.
The VIX has broken 2285, 2175, 2075 at present on the Front Month settling
tomorrow. 100% of the VXX will be contained within August VIX and the Roll
into September VIX will continue into the next Rollover.
BY example - Aug @ 96% / Sep @ 4% on the 22nd of July. The accumulation
of the Sept. VIX Contract will continue until it is solely comprised of Sep VIX
at the next Rollover for Aug.
Sep VIX slowly builds from 0% to 100% as we move from Contract Rollover to
Contract Rollover.
As the Chart above illustrates, there is opportunity within the VXX during
these times. Using the VXX as a hedge against the VXM (Micro VIX Contract)
can be immensely rewarding - Traders can use both sides of the Trade, knowing
"Backwardation" will not be permitted (until it cannot be contained).
VXX Sold Calls - 16 Jul & 23 Jul ExpiryI'm weary of my exposure to VXX and will try to reduce my exposure to it. For now, the price action seems to be stabilizing below the S/R line of $38. This month's entries seem tight due to the price offerings and when I entered. I'm not totally happy but it is manageable just not as defensive (Previous VXX trade I could get a good price at +60% from the strike)
I might exit these trades a week early and take a smaller profit so that I can get better Aug prices.
My Concerns on the VXX:
1) Inflation worries seem to be quietened but this will come back
2) VXX has an exposure to the Tech sector and that sector is pretty volatile especially with it's crazy bullish moves
Sold 45 Calls @ 1.02 Strike 51 - Expiry 16 July
Sold 15 Calls @ 0.82 Strike 46 - Expiry 23 July
BP Block: 53K
Max Gain: Est $5285.76
% Distance to Strike 51: 37%
% Distance to Strike 46: 29%
VXX finally getting ready to rumble?VXX has been very consistent in its following trend lines and over the last week it has dipped below its major support line. The news from the Fed today has clearly started some level of pull back in the markets (DJI has been showing that for a week). Now will this just be a side ways move or something more substantial? The markets has defied all odds so far so it may be good to wait for confirmation, but if you are a risk taker maybe something to consider.
4h
4h close up
2h
FED carnie taper circus tomorrow!rolled into a couple June 25th at the money calls right before the bell. Dumping this paper into the Q&A and rolling out +1 more week if there's a really sour reaction to even a whiff of removing the punch bowl. Hopefully some initial whipsaw action, rolling into puts next week when suits come back and jawbone TINA 🤙
CRITICAL ALERT!This trendline for the VXX has been holding the VXX in a downtrend from 2010-2020 (look at all the trendline tests from prior to 2020) until we broke it and had a big crash in Feb-March 2020. Now we are back-testing it and I am expecting a reaction for the VXX. VXX should go up and SPX down in the next 1-2 months. Look at my previous post on TVIX back in February that talked about breaking the multi-year trendline.
calls on the VXX Betting on a spike in the vix tomorrow after the CPI number comes in hot. Too many signs of inflation to ignore, there's no way the CPI comes in softly. I think the markets will have a slight reaction which should spike the "fear index" for a brief period of time, long enough to sell the calls in-the-money
Strategy to profit from this possibility:
VXX expiration June 11th $33 strike calls (ITM)
VXX expiration June 11th $34 strike calls (OTM)
Vix spikes are usually short-lived and this is playing off a specific catalyst, specifically, the CPI being reported at 8:30 am June 10th.
no problemasVXX calibrated is trading under pre-pandemic levels. There's at least ~50% upside to just regain normal vol levels dating back to 2019, business as usual walls of worry.
Fear is on sale,. June will likely be jawboned into a melt up, but July & August inflation talks return...July 16 31 calls, June 18 31 puts 🤙🏽