10 year interest rate w/ 30 year average mortgage ratesThis is just a simple chart with the two overlaid together to see the relationship between the two as well as having vertical lines indicating when the federal reserve effectively increased or decreased the fed funds rateby SweetMangoes111
TNX goes up from this levelMODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading system is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom channel Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level TTM Squeeze just turned off Impulse MACD is crossing over to the upside Price very near Fibonacci level In at $3.679 Target $3.9, top of channel will add to position at $3.6, $3.5Longby chancethepugUpdated 0
Risk Off with R2 StrategySo since the Risk Off was reported, the switching of the R2 strategy recorded a +6.237% for the treasury and a -4.00% for the SPX in the first "round" from 1 to 13 August, and a new Risk Off which it started on August 21st and a +2.857% for the treasury is still underway compared to a decline of 3.75% on the SPX.by mgiuliani0
Head & Shoulders pattern: 10 year yield could drop to 2.87%The series of tops shaped notorious Head & Shoulders pattern on 10-Year Treasury yield (TNX). The tallest peak is the Head and Shoulders are on both sides. The Neckline is the support that is built through valleys of the Head. The price has breached the Neckline this summer triggering the pattern bullish scenario. The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head (from top to Neckline) from breakdown point on the Neckline. It is located around 2.87%. Almost 1% down from the current levelEducationby aibek1
Treasury Yields: The Downtrend SteepensThe 10-year Treasury yield has been a key chart for risk appetite since interest rates started rising in late 2021. Now it might be confirming a move in the opposite direction. The first pattern on today’s chart of TNX (using 2-day candles) is the series of lower highs since October. Notice the steepening downward slopes of the falling trendlines. Does this reflect a growing belief that interest rates are headed lower? Second, the yield broke June’s low 4.188. It’s also under the key 4.32 level dating back to June 2008. That may suggest the 2-3 year uptrend is fading. Traders may next eye the December low around 3.80 as a key level to watch. The move comes after the Federal Reserve suggested a rate cut is more likely next month. News and data could also support the change. For example, initial jobless claims were above forecasts and continuing claims reached their highest total in almost three years. Unit labor costs were below estimates and productivity surprised to the upside. Data from the Institute for Supply Management also indicated a potentially sharp slowdown in manufacturing last month. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. by TradeStation5
US 10-Year Yields: The Domino Effect on Global MarketsHey traders! 🌟 Let's dive into the fascinating world of the US 10-year Treasury yields and their ripple effects across the financial markets. Buckle up! 🚀 The Bond-Yield Symphony 🎻 US 10-year yields are like the heartbeat of the financial markets. 💓 When they move, everything else follows. Here's a quick rundown on how these mighty yields impact commodities, stocks, and the United States dollar: Commodities 🛢️💰: Higher yields often lead to a stronger dollar, making commodities priced in USD more expensive for foreign buyers. This usually puts downward pressure on commodity prices. Stocks 📈💼: Rising yields can spell trouble for stocks, especially high-growth tech stocks. Why? Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs and potentially lower profits. Investors might shift from equities to bonds, seeking safer returns. United States Dollar 💵📊: When US yields climb, the dollar tends to strengthen. Investors flock to the higher returns offered by US assets, boosting demand for the greenback. What Rising Yields Mean 📈🔥 We’ve got some interesting levels on our radar. Demand is spotted between 4.032% and 4.233%, while supply looms large at 5.115% to 5.306%. With expectations pointing towards more rising yields, let's break down what this could mean: Commodities 🛢️💔: Brace for potential downside. As yields rise, the stronger dollar could weigh heavily on commodities like gold, oil, and silver. Watch for key support levels to gauge buying opportunities. Stocks 📉🚨: High-flying growth stocks might feel the pinch as investors rotate into safer, yield-bearing assets. Look out for increased volatility in the stock markets, especially in tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ. United States Dollar 💵🚀: The USD could see a significant boost, attracting global capital. A strong dollar might also impact US exports, making them more expensive on the international market. The Fun Part: Chart Watching! 📊🔍 We’re keeping a close eye on those critical levels. If yields push through the 5.115% to 5.306% supply zone, we could be in for a wild ride. 📉 Conversely, if yields find support within the 4.032% to 4.233% demand zone and we see a bullish reversal on the daily chart, a rally up to the supply zone could be on the cards. 📈 In essence, buying at demand and selling at supply remains a classic strategy. Should bond yields enter the demand zone and reverse back bullishly, we might witness a significant run up to the supply levels. 🚀 Keep those charts handy, and let’s ride these waves together! 🌊📈 Happy trading, and may the pips be ever in your favor! 🤑✨ #Trading #Finance #Investing #US10YearYields #Commodities #Stocks #USD #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis #Bonds #Yields #InvestSmartLongby Mike_SnDUpdated 2
TNX BreakoutTNX had weakened quite a bit after topping out in April and falling below its ascending wedge. However, after some consolidation, we now have a bull flag breakout that could lead to a much larger move, looking pretty scary for bulls if you ask me. It'll be interesting to see if TNX reacts to what Powell says in the morning. This will be an important watch either way.Longby AdvancedPlays1
Market Crash - TNX RocketThis is one of the major parts of my short thesis. We're seeing it play out in real time now. I expect treasury yields to continue to spike due to persistent inflation and the fed's current target rate. We're also seeing a lot of strength in DXY. If TNX continues higher, BOJ will have to sell more treasuries to support the Yen, which will cause yields to spike and tech stocks to dump. Longby AdvancedPlays1
shortParallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders inside another set of parallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders. Rates are set to crash. When bad news becomes bad news, look out below. Overall in the economy, there is too much supply, no where near enough demand. This is the last chance to get guaranteed yields in dollars this high for the next several decades imho.Shortby hamidsakhdari1
Bull Trap! The Market Crash is Well Underway I believe this past week was one giant bull trap. One of the primary reasons for this is the strength of TNX and fed fund futures adjusting after more strong jobs data to end the week. DXY went back to beast mode as well. Treasury yields are the single greatest threat to the market in my opinion and I believe the market is going to come to the realization that we are not getting any cuts this year. I think this.is written all over the market, a major top is being put in as we speak. I think the reaction from silver and BTC today says a lot. My only question is, what is wrong with VX? How can it be so low if we're actually about to crash. I have never seen such bearish charts without a strong VX. Very tricky IMO. Will follow up with videos and more on the short thesis. Shortby AdvancedPlays5
The TradingView Show: Charting Markets with TradeStationHello to all global traders! We're live with David Russell, TradeStation's Global Head of Markets giving us an inside look at the most important moves in markets. He’s the expert behind the research and analysis from TradeStation’s official TradingView account. Follow them here: www.tradingview.com In this show, we examine the most important charts, interesting trades, and offer valuable education for all traders. What’s on David’s radar? The Fed, inflation, the upcoming Apple iPhone, the big money shifts moving from energy to tech, and other areas to watch including homebuilders and more. We look forward to connecting with traders worldwide. Share your questions in the comments, contribute your insights, and don’t forget to subscribe for more shows on TradingView with our partners, influencers, sponsors, and global community. Thanks for watching! This show is for educational and entertainment purposes only, not financial advice. Markets require hard work and dedication, so stay informed and keep learning. Look first, then leap! - TradingView Important disclaimers for ETFs: www.tradestation.com Important disclaimers for options: www.theocc.com All other important disclaimers: www.tradestation.comEditors' picks53:49by TradingView55319
Triangle on the 10-Year Before Big EventsBond yields are converging before some big events this month. Today’s idea studies the yield on the 10 Year Treasury note. It is arguably the most important chart in financial markets given the current focus on interest rates. Upside in TNX has punished sentiment on various occasions, so potential downside signals could be especially noteworthy for risk appetite. First we have a pair a converging lines. This triangle is a potential reversal pattern after a few years of steady increases. Second is the 4.324 percent level. It was a high in June 2008 as the subprime crisis took hold. TNX peaked there in February and March before bouncing there in mid-May. Remaining above that level could potentially suggest yields haven’t peaked. Will a push below trigger more declines? Next is 4.70 percent. That was the location of a major gap on November 2 as investors looked for inflation to ease. Yields peaked there in late April. Remaining below it may confirm that markets believe inflation is headed lower. Finally, major catalysts that could influence TNX are marked. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates on Thursday. U.S. non-farm payrolls are on Friday. Then the big events are next Wednesday, June 12: The consumer price index (CPI) inflation report in the morning, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting and dot plot in the afternoon. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.by TradeStation6
TNX FailI became pretty bearish on Thursday after.yields.apiked and the fed fund futures changed rate cut expectations again. TNX was on a good run and had a bull flag breakout on the 15m, but ultimately failed. I'll look for TNX.to continue to weaken if I consider opening new longs.Shortby AdvancedPlays0
TNX Bull FlagTNX has a short term bull flag and had a big gain today. Looks like it is ready to breakout and head for trendline resistance above. If that trendline gives, things actually get really scary.Longby AdvancedPlays0
TNX RocketWanted to get this out there because I've been pretty bullish lately. Today that has changed after the market has changed rate cut expectations once again. TNX is flying as a result. This is a huge warning sign for tech stocks. Godspeed.Longby AdvancedPlays0
Parallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders 2X in TNXParallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders inside another set of parallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders. Rates are set to crash. When bad news becomes bad news, look out below. Overall in the economy, there is too much supply, no where near enough demand. This is the last chance to get guaranteed yields in dollars this high for the next several decades imho.Shortby RPM32313421
TNX Inverse Head and ShouldersTNX just bounced off the bottom end of its ascending channel and formed an inverse H&S while doing so. Kind of scary looking for bulls.by AdvancedPlays0
TNX Ascending ChannelTNX has been rising, but it's forming an ascending channel that could lead to a bearish break below. Currently sitting near the bottom end of the channel. The jobless claims from today should push this lower as traders anticipate rate cuts starting in September.Shortby AdvancedPlays0
Have Rates Finally Peaked?Stocks rose last week, but a more important signal may have come from the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Today’s idea uses multiple time frames to consider whether borrowing costs have finally peaked. The first pattern on the daily chart is the gap lower on November 2. It was a key day when labor productivity improved much more than expected and labor costs fell more than expected. That news drove down interest rates and helped propel the S&P 500 on its current rally. TNX’s peak on November 2 was roughly 4.7 percent. The level was retested on November 13 (establishing a weekly high) before yields continued down below 4 percent. Yields paused at the same zone in late April and were unable to climb further. The result could be a lower high on the weekly chart. If TNX remains below this level it could be the first major sign that interest rates are done increasing. The June 2008 high of 4.324 percent has also been important. Last month’s breakout above that level worried investors and handed the S&P 500 its first negative month since October. Will traders now look for a retest? In conclusion, inflation news has been mixed recently. However, Jerome Powell seems determined to cut interest rates and resist further hikes. Commodities also dropped last week and employment data was soft. That might be enough to support the doves -- at least for the time being. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.by TradeStation6
#Treasury Yields are they going to over 7% !!!Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major consequences if the #Economy is unable to whether a higher cost of capital and Gives big money managers to park their money in a risk free asset and earn #yield treasury notes are any #bond with a less than 2 year maturation. Longby BallaJiUpdated 1
All Eyes on the 10-YearU.S. Treasury yields have dominated sentiment since early 2022. Today we’ll return to the important chart of the key 10-year note. This chart uses two-week candles to show the bigger picture. The yellow line illustrates the upward trend. Four levels are also highlighted. First is the October 2018 peak of 3.248. TNX held that level in April 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. An old high became a new low, which signaled a potential reversal. Second is the June 2008 high of 4.324 -- a few months before the worst of the subprime collapse. TNX peaked there in October 2022 and fell under that level as the S&P 500 climbed last year. But now it’s back above it. Two more long-term levels could be in play next. The June 2007 high of 5.316 was the peak before the Global Financial Crisis. It could be the next logical stopping point for the current move. Above that, 6.823 was the zenith from early in the century. Next, one might consider that the decline in yields since the early 1980s was a very long-term trend. That could mean its upside reversal will last longer than some might hope. The macro backdrop and fundamentals in the Treasury market could also be important. Monday’s retail sales report could suggest the economy is strong enough to forgo rate cuts. Last week also saw poor demand for a 10-year Treasury auction, a wider than expected fiscal deficit and higher-than-expected CPI. Given these conditions, nerves may remain on edge into key events like gross domestic product on April 25, PCE on April 26 and the next Federal Reserve decision on May 1. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.by TradeStation13
high probability entries for cyclicalsHigh probability entries using TNX trend, macd and BB. Broad market, cyclicals basics. price and macd divergence bearish. bullish if macd is at support and BB is at support/breakout. can combine w/ the trend lines? tightening BB means accumulation, break outs. just for fun and learning purposes. //stay w/ the dominant trend. by citsvarUpdated 0
10 year interest rates heading higher?WIth two consecutive up side breakouts recent months, I reckon the odds for higher rates are higher than a dip back into the range. Time will tell...by AlexLaan1