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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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The 10 year treasury note (TNX) will reverse its trend soon.The 10 year treasury note (TNX) is following previous tightening cycles very closely. Since the COVID crash, TNX has been in a clear uptrend, but eventually it will hit a breaking point. The Federal Reserve is signaling they can raise interest rates as high as needed to calm inflation; however, there is a descending resistance line going back decades. This resistance line suggests that a 2.5% TNX is the absolute maximum the rate can go before the Fed takes action. In my opinion, TNX will follow the dotted line. First, descending over the next few months as the Fed begins tightening in a regular and consistent fashion. The market will begin to recover from the correction it is currently in. Second, later in the year, more negative data will come out about inflation, supply chain degradation, etc. which will severely hurt earnings and the broader markets until something breaks in late 2022 or early 2023. Third, the Fed will stop raising rates and eventually begin lowering them until the TNX is in negative territory. Many investors are trying to find the 1 thing that will cause markets to tank, but I think this time around the real culprit will just be institutional rot. Everywhere investors look there is very little real growth. Stocks are increasing due to share buybacks, earnings are increasing due to inflation rather than sustainable reasons, and at least for now, the Fed is still propping up many markets. It could very well be that in late 2022 a large economic event does occur that is disastrous for markets like COVID, but I would bet money that it is just a repeat of the 2018-19 tightening cycle where officials attempted to take off the training wheels only to find the market was incapable of adapting and needed to reverse course. Chart notes: The RSI divergence and triangle show that the TNX will break sometime in this year, just can't tell which direction yet. Considering that banks are decreasing GDP forecasts across the board and Goldman just gave the USA a 35% chance of recession in the next year I would put a lot of money on it breaking down as the opposite would be the breaking of a decades long channel.
TVC:TNXShort
by seanadamsmithemail
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - XLMUSD\BTC\DOW\EURUSD\GOLD\10YR-YIELDSNot much has changed since the last market update. The liquidity that has been driving these bubble markets for decades has hit a brick wall with the rise of the 10YR-Bond Yields as the primary guage. The Fed has no choice but to extinguish this raging inflation by raising rates. What came first: the chicken or the egg? Some say that this is politically motivated but I believe this all just human psychology at play. Nothing lasts forever and there is no such thing as a free lunch and I believe we are about to find out what the real effects of MMT are as we head into the end of this cycle. An interesting side note is that the Tulip Mania and South Sea bubbles of the 1600s and 1700s both happened during a time when the 10YR Bond Yields were falling to historical all-time lows. We once again find ourselves in a very similar situation, so how modern is this monetary theory really? Especially when humans keep forgetting the lessons of the past. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
1
TNX - Daily / The Break of SymmetrySince July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market. A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention. The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels UTL. ______________________________________________________________________ I pay a great deal of attention to Symmetry and Time, as it is as important as Price. ______________________________________________________________________ We can see in the chart above, 10 Year Yields decisively broke out as our pivot for higher was 1.961. Initially, it was front-run by 1 Pip during the Pre-Open - for bonds the action begins at 8 AM EST. The rest is history. Extensions will trade into March IMHO. Buyers since the FAKE 153 TOSS have been beaten down. Many are still insisting on remaining in the Bid, Buy the Dippers @ 153 / 151 / 149 / 147 / 143 / 142 / 139 / 136 continue to walk themselves into continuing losses. The Waffle House opened for Drive-Thru and the parking lot pileup ensued. ________________________________________________________________________ Forward CASH is not only being discounted for 007s, but for Corporate Jumbos aka Mega Caps. A clear sign of Depression 10X from August 2020 - a leading indicator by 18 months historically. Right on TIME - March 2022. __________________________________________________________________________ You cannot fix stupid you can, however - you can take it's $. Rates will continue to persist to the Larger time frames @ 3.5%. This is the point of truncation late this year when 5/5 concludes for the Equity Complex at New ATHs. Even the TLT baggies will gain small relief as all JUNK is hoisted higher in one final Tulip Phase. A multi-year Bear Market will ensue, collaterals will be "Reset" and Bonds, as we long warned become perpetual. Fluidity / Mobility matter most. Unfortunately, the vast majority will remain snared.
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by HK_L61
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3
US 10 Yr Treasury: Weekly Chart UpdateQuick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1W Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNXLong
by MillionaireEconomics
4
40 Years of TNX and SPX and Their Inverse CorrelationFor the last 40 years, I (we) have invested in a never-ending Bull Market in stocks. During this time: Stay the Course and Buy the Dips worked. But as Ray Dalio said recently: THE PERIOD OF EASY MONEY IS OVER! The new paradigm will either be Zero or Rising Rates, neither of which will be kind to long term investors. The BIG MONEY has already begun to or completed exiting stocks. That started around January 1st. Be very careful what you do now!
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TVC:TNX
by midnitepoet
85
Inversion of the yield curve 10 year minus 2 year yieldsThe yield curve between the 10 and 2 year has been collapsing since March 2021. It is erie to behold that the inversions of the yield curve were occurring 1-2 years before past recessions occurred in 2000 and 2008 and even before the recent pandemic. One can see when complete inversion occurs when the basis point difference goes BELOW ZERO. It would seem quite possible we are seeing the beginning of another recession as the yield curve flattens. One can also see periods of steepening and reflation when the opposite trend occurs. This is a useful tool for equity investors to see when the water is safe for investing. Right now, it appears caution is advised and a recession may be imminent.
TVC:TNXShort
by 1Creekdoc
THE 40 YEAR BEAR MARKET IN 10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE INTEREST RATEThe attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either remain low for an indefinite period while inflation soared or rates would be raised to quell inflation. But Friday Central Banks around the world announced tightening. The party is over! It is time to batten down the hatches, lock in long term profits on stocks, rentals and any other investments that correlate inversely with interest rates. Obviously the major players saw this coming and started bailing at the first of2022. Now us little fish must do what we can to avoid losing the wealth we have. As an aside, it was announced last year that Bill Gates was diversifying into farm land. Obviously that anticipates food shortages and inflation............. I will post more on this once the picture becomes clearer. midnitepoet
TVC:TNXShort
by midnitepoet
Traders' guide: 10 yr Yield + markets positively linkedFirst - if you think markets always move opposite to yields, please be open to learning something new. Covariance, in statistics, is the relationship between two random variables. This chart indicates periods of negative (blue) and positive (yellow) covariance between the 10 year yield and SPY. If you think about it, this makes sense because there are times when rising rates give investors more confidence in the economy. Traders can benefit from knowing the general relationship. > Yields change in response to central bank activity - I cannot explain why the covariance flips > Other factors influence markets but yield is reliable for intraday moves > 1.77 has been key support for the yield recently, and hence for markets > Above 1.83, markets get spooked and covariance becomes negative (you can see this in yellow boxes also) > Below 1.74,1.73 should increase selling momentum How am I using this information to plan trades? > I believe yields will drop further and take markets lower, so I am looking for swing put trades > This strong upward rally has brought indices and stocks to moving average and price resistance areas, which technically also indicate swing puts > I have successfully day traded DIA and QQQ calls and puts using yield changes a guide > I was too early in buying swing puts on 31 Jan, but since they expire 18Feb I can hold the loss for now > As I finish writing this, yield moved up from 1.748 to 1.771 and markets have also been moving up - I see this as a good time to buy swing puts
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TVC:TNX
by OptionsRising
37