TNX ProjectionsBased off this *very* well respected weekly channel on the 10 year, I do believe 2.0-2.5% is quite possible, if not likely.Longby nechronics0
TNX at key levelTNX is attempting to breakout from the 618 resistance and above the Mar 29th high. This is what has the market worried. The targets above would be 2.21 and 2.67 so the market is pricing in growth at these higher rates. It is still possible for the TNX to reject here and fall back down. I will be watching for the rejection as it would likely give a boost to growth stocks and tech. by WadeYendallUpdated 4
US 10yr stalling at recent highsStalling at recent highs Tech bulls want 10yr to sell off Value/cyclical bulls want 10yr to rallyby JortsTrades0
$spy $tlt $tnx Short-term reliefYou may get some additional downward movement in rates which eases stress on markets....In the short-term, but the march to 1.94% will resume. Plan accordinglyby shawnsyx682
TNX - Clear indication of a Pullback10 Year Yeidls should begin to pull back, this will provide a welcome wind for TECH into EPS Season. Bond VX is retreating as well. RSI/STO Summation indicates an overbought condition. ____________________________________________________ Seemingly - this implies our thesis for the Recac has come into the Trade and was supported by the Short Squeeze and Gamma Call Squeeze after the Put Close. Jumbos want to make $, it is axiomatic the ranges will expand and Profits can be made on ALL sides of the Ranges. It is that simple. by HK_L61227
10 yr yield to see 1.75 to 1.86 at 50% TOPPED The chart posted is that of the 10 yr yield A few months back my forecast was for a move backup to 1.75/ 1.86 into the 50% area . I stand by this being the TOP of the range and we are now set up for deflation to show up . the 10 year will not be moving up for sometime Shortby wavetimer0
the 2000s yield fractal2003-2007 yield fractal may be repeating right now which means rates will be rising for the next couple yearsLongby sparrow_hawk_7370
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the Curve. Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial movements in the Bond Complex. 40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era after the Whip Inflation Now Era. Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that of Equities. _______________________________________________________________________ The Risks remain to Rates rising. Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have not seen in a very long time.by HK_L6111
Bonds up bitcoin down Many times recently we saw bitcoin following the bonds .. what will happen this time? How much upside have we left for the bonds. I think Until oktober this year before another crash. I believe that bitcoin will follow rigorously. Buckle up….Longby TraderJet0
TNX - Deep CrabThese harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an alternate target 1.618 because I like the symmetry with the 2.618 BC projection at 2.254. Despite labeled with a "potential reversal zone", keep in mind the momentum on this sucker. The 30,40, and 50 week MA look like they are ready to flip bullish in the coming weeks if this thing gains some ground. Not financial advice by any means. I just thought it'd be fun to share. Best of luck! harmonictrader.comby BigDGoesHard2
Watch the yield, JeromeThe FED has turned hawkish once again and inflation is in the mouth of everybody. They are planning hikes, tapering and even tightening. You gotta bring the prices of groceries down right? Well i believe that Jerome will have to watch and be careful because old Uncle Sam might not be able to pay his HUGE PILE of debt if yields keep going up. They will keep going until they break something, and i believe the first thing to watch for are these yields and the 30 year notes yields.by UnknownUnicorn19919571
The move in Treasuries is unstoppable. Severe consequences.This move is unstoppable. Remember: by the time the move ends, the market always forces you to abandon your beliefs. What will it take to make everyone relinquish the popular idea that low yields are here to stay forever? A move to 5%, or even higher. Consider also that this swing is the last one in a 2-year long sequence (wave C of E). This move will accomplish everything the market didn't dare earlier. Expect a nearly tick-for-tick correlation between the crash in Treasuries with other instruments: SPX targets 1200, EURUSD 0.86, BTC below 5k. Silver below 10, Gold ~1100.Longby AndyM114
TNX - The Tech WreckerAs yields began another disorderly move, The NQ finally took notice. The range posted for the NQ this Morning - Traded in Full. It was nice to see Reality begin to sink in finally. Industrial caught the spillage while the 711s were hammered with9ut relenting. ____________________________________________________________ FOMC @ 2 PM EST tomorrow should set the Trend for some time to come. Bonds have been providing clear indications of a mishap, in particular ZN. by HK_L61338
TNX on the rise.Watch 1.515 pivotIf rates keep rising with a recovering economy, TNX may soon break 1.515 upwards toward the high end of The BIG DOWTRENDING CHANNEL. Right now,TNX still holds the short term up-channel When TNX rise, TLT falls…. Does it mean money may rotate into stocks? Pls comment your ideas.Longby xtremerider81
TNX - ROC @ 2.43%10 Year Yields getting itchy once again. 2Yr - 10Yr worthy of observation. Dot Plot - 2022 @ 1.125% Page 4 - www.federalreserve.govby HK_L61Updated 10107
10 Year Note Yield - Short / Intermediate Duration Inflation has been mispriced in excess of 16 months. The Federal Reserve should have begin to reduce Liquidity by Mid 2020 as Fiscal Stimulus had taken effect into July into September when Fiscal Stimulus began Peak. The Fed's Balance Sheet continued to expand with the Purchase of RMBC/MBS/UST/Corp. Debt, while Shadow operations under FASB 56 continued to increase nearly matching the Fed's accumulated Holdings. $8 Trillion in combined Net exposures, provided outsized gains for Equities. Bonds began a revolt in early 2021, only to see the Fed step up and employ YCC in early April, attempting to stem the fastest rising rates in US History. The Fed and US Treasury can control all Points on the Yield Curve as the Buyer of last resort. Clearly, the Short End used to require far less effort when re-fundings were under 30 Months. This is no longer the case, as they expand funds from 5-7s out to the '30s where we have seen multiple "Auction Failures". Buyers simply refused to participate. A Creep effect begins to enter the equation with respect to expectations. The Long End of the Curve begins to flatten, traditionally indicating a recession ahead according to conventional Bond Wisdom. And therein is the issue, this is not the 1970s and StagFlation is not the Environment. We are within an Inflationary Depression and have been for some time by any real and credible Metric. Economic Activity began to lag in Q1 2021, by Q2 the results were Peak consumption for the US Consumers. It will be downhill for into Q3 and worsening into Q4 as we indicated in July, all metrics were showing clear signs of another Global Slowdown as occurred in Q2/Q3 2019. Excess Capacity was quietly, but quickly becoming underutilized, as well as under-reporting of Global Economic prospects. ____________________________________________________________________________ For 2022, I see a rapid and substantive decline gaining Momentum. Economic Activity was pulled forward into 2021. Inflation Numbers need to be brought to heel with BLS Recalc for Inflation, taking effect in January 2022. This extraordinary measure will fail. The headline Numbers adjusted by this tampering will not change Prices Paid. Malcontent - the result as What is purported and Reality will diverge to create further distrust and increasing Loss of Confidence - Quickly compounding. Quietly, absolutely not... as Monetary Policy will not be alone as the "Build Back Better" Fiscal Policy has been delayed. Further Stimulus down the road... only serves to compound the problem and stave off the Pitchforks and Lanterns. _____________________________________________________________________________ Covid Variants continue to expand - 19/ Epsilon / Delta / Omicron / New Variant TBA The Fed indicated in their most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes and Press Conference, Omicron is an "Uncertainty" and why the FED called it out within their Policy Statement. Indicating the US Economy could handle the "Omicron" Variant at present while acknowledging the FED is a "Long Way from knowing what it will turn out to be..." "It is unclear on how the New Variant would suppress Demand and Supply." "Wave upon wave, people are learning to live with this..." Vaccinations, according to the Raven reduce the "Economic Effect." Timeline for Variant assessment - 3 to 6 Weeks... Omicron doesn't really have an impact on the Taper as the Chair wants participants to believe. _______________________________________________________________________________ The Stock Market is and is not the Economy - it depends on which way the wind is blowing. A Northern Gale changes arrangements, this is what the Raven is laying the groundwork for into Q1. An overextended Credit based Financial Economy has a great number of hurdles ahead in addition to a Central Bank which may or may not embark on further meddling. That is immaterial to a larger extent as Global Markets for DEBT are Tightening at a time when the compound effect of all Economic activity is waning... instructs us all as to how "intent" will reprice DEBT / Inflation / Expectations and Sentiment. __________________________________________________________________________________ Factors that lead to growth in 2021... the plug is being pulled. Q4 rebound is a seasonal pattern, and yet Holiday sales will prove to have been DISMAL. The Dollar remains at risk to the upside, clearly holding its own, the Dollar will move higher at least to 100. ___________________________________________________________________________________ The Fed can do plod along - Markets will adjust as they permit the Net Drag to do their work for them. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Regional BAnks are showing two consecutive quarters of Savings Drawdown from Q3 thru Q4. ___________________________________________________________________________________ The Inflation/deflation debates have always amused me as an Economist. This is best framed within the context of Credit Malfeasance again the expansion of Moore's Law to an Exponential Function. Technology is deflationary, it reduces a great many Economic functions while increasing efficiencies in ways, most fail to understand. Monetary Policy is the Inflation component with an added twist, the Supply Shocks and shortages due to the Shut Down of the Global Economy. An extraordinary time in Humanity's History. This will be discussed at length in follow-on commentary. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Moral hazards abound and are plentiful at precisely the wrong time. A Nation of Gamblers - www.tradingview.com PS. - the House always wins by HK_L61131312
10 Year Note Yield - 2%+ Ahead Into June - AugustThe Price Objective remains 2.28%. Beyond sewing the usual seeds of discontent, observe the Larger Monthly Indications. The above Chart is of extreme importance, it demonstrates how Capital Stocks begin to turn, Glacial at first, as Momentum builds, they begin to accelerate. This will end up a 4 or 5 part series discussing the potential impacts. _____________________________________________________________________________ Price has broken above 2 Key Downtrends. It is attempting to reach the 3rd, which has acted as resistance for years. This is a material change in the underlying Bond Market Note Structure. It is no longer the conventional depository for Principal and Coupon as a great many believe. ______________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks are in need of review: Real Estate - the Hybrid / Principal and Coupon (Rents) A Negative correlation to Higher Rates with cascading effects to Higher Rates. A 70% increase in Conventional and Jumbo Mortgage Rates would see a 18 to 24% drop in the Price of Residential Real Estate. Equities - the Buyback / Prop where Corporate Debt is used for Buybacks Increased borrowing Costs temper Buybacks, Inflows do not. This is a double edged sword we will discuss in detail. Bitcoin - The repository (Not Depository) for excess Liquidity. BTC has a Positive correlation to rising Rates. BTC has a Price Objective near $137K at the extreme extensions for Rates of the 10 Year Note Yield. Bills / Notes / Bonds / - Debt instruments with attendant Hybrid function of Principal / Coupon. ______________________________________________________________________________ Bonds (prior to 2006) were traditionally a function of the Business Cycle which has been supplanted by the Credit Cycle (no longer a Cycle by appearances). Prior to 2008 Congress would pass a Bill in the Legislature, after speaking with the US Treasury to determine how to "Finance" its Fiscal requirements. Once the Bill was passed and signed into Law, the US Treasury would conduct operations with the Federal Reserve Central Bank in New York to issue the increased Credit/Debt (The FED taking their statutory 6% issuance) to the US Government. Bills, Note and Bonds would be placed with Primary Broker Dealers (Fed Member Banks) and offered at "Auction" to the Public, Institutions, exogenous Central Banks, Funds, Swaps and overnight Swaps for shorter duration T-Bills sweeps. This funding mechanism for DEBT no longer exists. FASB 56 - took the Governments Budgets and Funding "Dark" as a "Matter of National Security". The General Purpose Federal Financial Reports are Classified Documents. The material Facts of FASB 56 - files.fasab.gov 13 Short Pages well worth educating one's self as to how the Government conducts itself. TARP/TALF were undisclosed Operations which maintained their Shadow Financing for years. 94% of Americans were against Commercial Bank Bailouts. Privatizing Gains while publicly subsidizing losses was viewed with extreme displeasure. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Over the past 14 Year, we see the outcome(s) - Interventions in Auctions by the Federal Reserve, Yield Curve Control, the Outright Purchase of RMBS/MBS again (this began in 2004 in size as the Federal Reserve's concerns over Real Estate began to mount). The FED has become the buyer of Last Resort - currently @ $8.758 Trillion in Assets of which $8.296 are "Securities" - this excludes "Shadow Operations" of FASB 56. In less than 2 years, the Federal Reserves Balance Sheet rose from $4.212 Trillion to more than Double that amount (NET of Shadow Operations) I estimate Shadow Operation under FASB 56 to be in excess of $3.8 Trillion - this excludes the Trillions missing from the Federal Coffers @ DOD, HUD and a great many other Agencies. _________________________________________________________________________________ Follow - On commentary will begin breaking down the Trends and discuss the potent outcomes and timeframes for each Capital Stock. There is a large amount of information to be discussed, requiring a methodical analysis of all points on the outcome curve. More to follow - HK by HK_L615513
10-YEAR YIELD ANALOGUEPossible analogue from the lead up to the last financial crisis. Potential catalysts still taking shape. Continued central bank NIRP would support this scenario.by jem614Updated 4
TNX - Zimbabwe / YCC / Capital Stock / Melt Up / FX - ECB BOJ EUBonds are at a Critical Juncture. Unable to serve their function due to YCC we are now staring down the Crack the Boom Phase V.5 Not much is functioning correctly... not remotely. _______________________________________________ We are quickly becoming Zimbabwe. Of the 3 Capital Stocks, Equities may well end up the catch-all bucket and Melt Up in Violent Fashion. By appearances, the Equity Complex itself is the remaining capital Stock for the Inflation Trade. Real Estate is immobile, illiquid and the Bond Market remains on the Path of Destruction. Both DOA in Real Terms. If you did not believe this earlier, perhaps now... The Raven has made it clear you will lose 2x as quickly. Welcome to Zimmy World akin to Waterworld but we are afloat in a Sea of Sharks feeding on the remaining viable, liquid - Equity Complex. McC OSC's are deeply in negative for all Indices - DEEP. They declined yesterday as the ES NQ YM RTY all reversed. Frankly, horrifying as What is, is not what should be as the Flamingo's Sports Book has gone into DeFib Mode. ___________________________________________________ They are using the Recalc to extend and pretend, a concern we expressed would be a game-changer, it now is realized. Yes, the Indices are grossly overbought and could face a reversal... Maybe... A great deal will depend on how committed Everyone is to the Zimbabwe Trade. ___________________________________________________ Sad, pathetic, destructive - yes. It is what it is, be prepared for complete Insanity. It's beginning. Powell made it quite clear, repeatedly clear - the Focus and cover is labor. Rates... the slide in 2 for 2022, lied, of course, then added potentially 3, then mentioned 2024... The FEDs #1 Mandate is Price Stability... # 2 Full Employment. Raven went all in by not mentioning Mandate #1, they abandoned it. It isn't Transitory - it is the way, Instability. Both are now a joke so depressing, it warrants consideration as to what they are truly after. It is quite simple - protect their own. It disgusts me to write this, but I'd be remiss in not doing so. _____________________________________________________ The Only thing that can upend this insidious trend is Yields. Flattering to Inversion on the Short End will take time. Equity Complex Extensions to follow in Commentary. Tby HK_L61998
TNX 10 yr. yields TNX so far in Dec. Ms1 pivot point to the MP. So far this quarter, Qr1 to QP. Institutional traders use pivot points. by PivotalPivots0
TNX - Creating Issues Set your Clock by it... The 007s begin their Ghost Stories at Highs. Within mere hours of our 2 favorites Bond Stand-Ins - Moore and Dalton. TNX wakes up. TLT drops $4. Whenever Shevchenko and Dino begin another series of rants, it is a SELL. The "Wood Paneling" Indicator has never failed. It remains 100%. __________________________________________________________________ Since July I have suggested there is no "Safety" Trade in Reality, for Bonds. It remains hitched to prior paradigms. For reasons, repeated enough times to not require further repetition, sanguine. My heart says Michelada, but it's Sangria today. ___________________________________________________________________ The Federal Reserve remains the Ultimate Bagholder, their balance sheet continues to Hold steady. Why? How come? Wassup there? There remains a need to Feed. The FED is going to raise rates, accelerate the Taper to ~$30 Billion for MBS and UST's. Ideally, they want to conclude the shortest Taper in History by March. 3 Rate Hikes are confirmed for 2022, a 4th in discussion as Forward Guidance on Inflation is dismal... 20 to 25% for 2022 for starters. ______________________________________________________________________ The Answer is wrong again. Unsure how mass delusions perform any longer as they have stretched my imagination beyond what I considered sane, probable... possible, of course. My mind has more stretch marks than my waist. Remarkable times. by HK_L61Updated 26268
The Corrupt FedThey lowered rates the whole time Obama was in office to help economic growth, and almost raised them the whole time under Trump... not sure there is another way to see thisby UnknownUnicorn154759861