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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases. The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement. IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations. It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay. 10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021. __________________________________________________________________ TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ resolve, likely this week... Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
U.S. 10yr Yield driving marketsStochastic %D is headed lower on all three charts. I will probably remain bearish until SKEW and fear/greed indicators signal "time to buy" Left chart: > daily 10yr yield may be a double top and it comes down from here > markets are positively correlated with yield movements for now > yield is at 200ma resistance on weekly chart > yield will respond - how? - to Fed balance reduction and no more asset purchases Top right chart: > 30min chart of 10yr yield shows 1.71 is critical level > there is a lag between yield and market movement, so swing trades will work well > lower yields may initially cause markets to rise, so be ready for market turns and take profits Bottom right chart > 30m chart of Dow Jones is an example of markets heading lower to retest lows > when you look at daily/weekly charts, it is likely that markets move even lower > stocks that look "sold off" on 30m/daily still have room down on weekly > at the same time, markets may bounce first on lower yields, as there is room on daily to move up to 20sma
TVC:TNXShort
by OptionsRising
11
TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired. Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel. Fear sells. Listen to the data. God Bless. #GoChiefs!
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
1
TNX - Clear indication of a Pullback10 Year Yeidls should begin to pull back, this will provide a welcome wind for TECH into EPS Season. Bond VX is retreating as well. RSI/STO Summation indicates an overbought condition. ____________________________________________________ Seemingly - this implies our thesis for the Recac has come into the Trade and was supported by the Short Squeeze and Gamma Call Squeeze after the Put Close. Jumbos want to make $, it is axiomatic the ranges will expand and Profits can be made on ALL sides of the Ranges. It is that simple.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the Curve. Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial movements in the Bond Complex. 40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era after the Whip Inflation Now Era. Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that of Equities. _______________________________________________________________________ The Risks remain to Rates rising. Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have not seen in a very long time.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TNX - Deep CrabThese harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an alternate target 1.618 because I like the symmetry with the 2.618 BC projection at 2.254. Despite labeled with a "potential reversal zone", keep in mind the momentum on this sucker. The 30,40, and 50 week MA look like they are ready to flip bullish in the coming weeks if this thing gains some ground. Not financial advice by any means. I just thought it'd be fun to share. Best of luck! harmonictrader.com
TVC:TNX
by BigDGoesHard
Watch the yield, JeromeThe FED has turned hawkish once again and inflation is in the mouth of everybody. They are planning hikes, tapering and even tightening. You gotta bring the prices of groceries down right? Well i believe that Jerome will have to watch and be careful because old Uncle Sam might not be able to pay his HUGE PILE of debt if yields keep going up. They will keep going until they break something, and i believe the first thing to watch for are these yields and the 30 year notes yields.
TVC:TNX
by UnknownUnicorn1991957
The move in Treasuries is unstoppable. Severe consequences.This move is unstoppable. Remember: by the time the move ends, the market always forces you to abandon your beliefs. What will it take to make everyone relinquish the popular idea that low yields are here to stay forever? A move to 5%, or even higher. Consider also that this swing is the last one in a 2-year long sequence (wave C of E). This move will accomplish everything the market didn't dare earlier. Expect a nearly tick-for-tick correlation between the crash in Treasuries with other instruments: SPX targets 1200, EURUSD 0.86, BTC below 5k. Silver below 10, Gold ~1100.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
1
10 Year Note Yield - Short / Intermediate Duration Inflation has been mispriced in excess of 16 months. The Federal Reserve should have begin to reduce Liquidity by Mid 2020 as Fiscal Stimulus had taken effect into July into September when Fiscal Stimulus began Peak. The Fed's Balance Sheet continued to expand with the Purchase of RMBC/MBS/UST/Corp. Debt, while Shadow operations under FASB 56 continued to increase nearly matching the Fed's accumulated Holdings. $8 Trillion in combined Net exposures, provided outsized gains for Equities. Bonds began a revolt in early 2021, only to see the Fed step up and employ YCC in early April, attempting to stem the fastest rising rates in US History. The Fed and US Treasury can control all Points on the Yield Curve as the Buyer of last resort. Clearly, the Short End used to require far less effort when re-fundings were under 30 Months. This is no longer the case, as they expand funds from 5-7s out to the '30s where we have seen multiple "Auction Failures". Buyers simply refused to participate. A Creep effect begins to enter the equation with respect to expectations. The Long End of the Curve begins to flatten, traditionally indicating a recession ahead according to conventional Bond Wisdom. And therein is the issue, this is not the 1970s and StagFlation is not the Environment. We are within an Inflationary Depression and have been for some time by any real and credible Metric. Economic Activity began to lag in Q1 2021, by Q2 the results were Peak consumption for the US Consumers. It will be downhill for into Q3 and worsening into Q4 as we indicated in July, all metrics were showing clear signs of another Global Slowdown as occurred in Q2/Q3 2019. Excess Capacity was quietly, but quickly becoming underutilized, as well as under-reporting of Global Economic prospects. ____________________________________________________________________________ For 2022, I see a rapid and substantive decline gaining Momentum. Economic Activity was pulled forward into 2021. Inflation Numbers need to be brought to heel with BLS Recalc for Inflation, taking effect in January 2022. This extraordinary measure will fail. The headline Numbers adjusted by this tampering will not change Prices Paid. Malcontent - the result as What is purported and Reality will diverge to create further distrust and increasing Loss of Confidence - Quickly compounding. Quietly, absolutely not... as Monetary Policy will not be alone as the "Build Back Better" Fiscal Policy has been delayed. Further Stimulus down the road... only serves to compound the problem and stave off the Pitchforks and Lanterns. _____________________________________________________________________________ Covid Variants continue to expand - 19/ Epsilon / Delta / Omicron / New Variant TBA The Fed indicated in their most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes and Press Conference, Omicron is an "Uncertainty" and why the FED called it out within their Policy Statement. Indicating the US Economy could handle the "Omicron" Variant at present while acknowledging the FED is a "Long Way from knowing what it will turn out to be..." "It is unclear on how the New Variant would suppress Demand and Supply." "Wave upon wave, people are learning to live with this..." Vaccinations, according to the Raven reduce the "Economic Effect." Timeline for Variant assessment - 3 to 6 Weeks... Omicron doesn't really have an impact on the Taper as the Chair wants participants to believe. _______________________________________________________________________________ The Stock Market is and is not the Economy - it depends on which way the wind is blowing. A Northern Gale changes arrangements, this is what the Raven is laying the groundwork for into Q1. An overextended Credit based Financial Economy has a great number of hurdles ahead in addition to a Central Bank which may or may not embark on further meddling. That is immaterial to a larger extent as Global Markets for DEBT are Tightening at a time when the compound effect of all Economic activity is waning... instructs us all as to how "intent" will reprice DEBT / Inflation / Expectations and Sentiment. __________________________________________________________________________________ Factors that lead to growth in 2021... the plug is being pulled. Q4 rebound is a seasonal pattern, and yet Holiday sales will prove to have been DISMAL. The Dollar remains at risk to the upside, clearly holding its own, the Dollar will move higher at least to 100. ___________________________________________________________________________________ The Fed can do plod along - Markets will adjust as they permit the Net Drag to do their work for them. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Regional BAnks are showing two consecutive quarters of Savings Drawdown from Q3 thru Q4. ___________________________________________________________________________________ The Inflation/deflation debates have always amused me as an Economist. This is best framed within the context of Credit Malfeasance again the expansion of Moore's Law to an Exponential Function. Technology is deflationary, it reduces a great many Economic functions while increasing efficiencies in ways, most fail to understand. Monetary Policy is the Inflation component with an added twist, the Supply Shocks and shortages due to the Shut Down of the Global Economy. An extraordinary time in Humanity's History. This will be discussed at length in follow-on commentary. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Moral hazards abound and are plentiful at precisely the wrong time. A Nation of Gamblers - www.tradingview.com PS. - the House always wins
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
13