10-YEAR YIELD ANALOGUEPossible analogue from the lead up to the last financial crisis. Potential catalysts still taking shape. Continued central bank NIRP would support this scenario.
TNX.P trade ideas
TNX - Zimbabwe / YCC / Capital Stock / Melt Up / FX - ECB BOJ EUBonds are at a Critical Juncture.
Unable to serve their function due to YCC we are now
staring down the Crack the Boom Phase V.5
Not much is functioning correctly... not remotely.
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We are quickly becoming Zimbabwe.
Of the 3 Capital Stocks, Equities may well end up the
catch-all bucket and Melt Up in Violent Fashion.
By appearances, the Equity Complex itself is the remaining
capital Stock for the Inflation Trade.
Real Estate is immobile, illiquid and the Bond Market
remains on the Path of Destruction. Both DOA in Real Terms.
If you did not believe this earlier, perhaps now...
The Raven has made it clear you will lose 2x as quickly.
Welcome to Zimmy World akin to Waterworld but we are
afloat in a Sea of Sharks feeding on the remaining viable,
liquid - Equity Complex.
McC OSC's are deeply in negative for all Indices - DEEP.
They declined yesterday as the ES NQ YM RTY all reversed.
Frankly, horrifying as What is, is not what should be as the
Flamingo's Sports Book has gone into DeFib Mode.
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They are using the Recalc to extend and pretend, a concern
we expressed would be a game-changer, it now is realized.
Yes, the Indices are grossly overbought and could face a reversal...
Maybe...
A great deal will depend on how committed Everyone is to the
Zimbabwe Trade.
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Sad, pathetic, destructive - yes.
It is what it is, be prepared for complete Insanity.
It's beginning.
Powell made it quite clear, repeatedly clear - the Focus and cover
is labor. Rates... the slide in 2 for 2022, lied, of course, then added
potentially 3, then mentioned 2024...
The FEDs #1 Mandate is Price Stability... # 2 Full Employment.
Raven went all in by not mentioning Mandate #1, they abandoned
it. It isn't Transitory - it is the way, Instability.
Both are now a joke so depressing, it warrants consideration
as to what they are truly after.
It is quite simple - protect their own.
It disgusts me to write this, but I'd be remiss in not doing so.
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The Only thing that can upend this insidious trend is Yields.
Flattering to Inversion on the Short End will take time.
Equity Complex Extensions to follow in Commentary.
TNX 10 yr. yields TNX so far in Dec. Ms1 pivot point to the MP. So far this quarter, Qr1 to QP. Institutional traders use pivot points.
TNX - Creating Issues
Set your Clock by it...
The 007s begin their Ghost Stories at Highs.
Within mere hours of our 2 favorites Bond Stand-Ins - Moore and Dalton.
TNX wakes up.
TLT drops $4.
Whenever Shevchenko and Dino begin another series of rants, it is a SELL.
The "Wood Paneling" Indicator has never failed.
It remains 100%.
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Since July I have suggested there is no "Safety" Trade in Reality, for Bonds.
It remains hitched to prior paradigms.
For reasons, repeated enough times to not require further repetition, sanguine.
My heart says Michelada, but it's Sangria today.
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The Federal Reserve remains the Ultimate Bagholder, their balance sheet continues
to Hold steady.
Why?
How come?
Wassup there?
There remains a need to Feed.
The FED is going to raise rates, accelerate the Taper to ~$30 Billion for MBS and UST's.
Ideally, they want to conclude the shortest Taper in History by March.
3 Rate Hikes are confirmed for 2022, a 4th in discussion as Forward Guidance on Inflation
is dismal... 20 to 25% for 2022 for starters.
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The Answer is wrong again.
Unsure how mass delusions perform any longer as they have stretched my imagination beyond
what I considered sane, probable... possible, of course.
My mind has more stretch marks than my waist.
Remarkable times.
The Corrupt FedThey lowered rates the whole time Obama was in office to help economic growth, and almost raised them the whole time under Trump...
not sure there is another way to see this
TNX - Meanwhile...Taper Tipper engaged.
Amazing how well they play the game.
The FED is not reducing their Balance Sheet - Bondholders of Last Resort.
The only thing they sold was 1's - 5's.
No One but the Safty Pins truly wants this Junk other than the Retail Herd.
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Ideally, Equities need to go out at HIGHS today.
:)
Ideally.
TNX breaks key pivotTNX broke below the 1.40 pivot that I have been watching. IMO this is significant and not getting enough attention. Especially significant in the wake of growing inflation fears. The bond market seems to be pricing in a slowing economy not a growing economy. Money is getting dumped back into treasuries for some reason. A bond market rally could pull a lot of money out of stocks. Not sure how to play this but definitely something I'll continue to watch.
The endgame in Treasuries?Expect a bounce at precisely 0.618.
Wave C of E should be quick and will cause overwhelming pain.
The final moves in currencies, stocks and Treasuries should be perfectly synced. Nearly tick-for tick: EURUSD should crash to 0.86, SPX will get dispatched to 1500, and 10Y will hit 4-5%.
The dollar and the Yen will be the sole survivors. (USDJPY below 100).
10 Year Note YieldWassup here...
Appears a Large move is approaching.
It may Range into Mid December, but there is
and Enormous move in Yields quickly approaching.
TNX bounces off lower trendlineTNX bounced off the lower trendline in this longer term consolidation pattern. Basically a break above or below the two pivots identified by the red arrows would be significant. I will set alerts at both points.
trying to decipher 10 us yield bonds moves ... trying to decipher 10 us yield bonds moves ... lots of bond related ratios for trends
Stocks Future will be based on 10 Y BondThe movements of the stock market and digital currencies will be dependent on the head and shoulders pattern on the US Treasury bond index, which gives an indication of the imminence of a major price explosion if it is broken upwards, which means without any doubt a significant decline in the stock market and digital currencies as well. also keep buying stocks as long as the resistance still hold , we need a real weekly break
TNX - Sh_t Mixed AgainTraders appear confused as to what to do.
It's one day of High ROC followed by a pause,
followed by High ROC.
Bonds were SOlD @ 8 AM EST.
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Equities still blow out to the upside...
Then the Velvet Glove comes off.
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Santa Crash Landing IMHO
Somewhere over Siberia.
The Buyer of Last Resort... keeps failing.
TNX RATES TO SOAR MIN 1.82 The long term bull market in bonds and low rates has ENDED We have started a new rise in rates and contraction in the Economy housing stocks and tech to begin a new BEAR MARKET 2022 is a major 88.5 to 89.1 yr cycle in which ALL BREAKS DOWN TILL MID TERM CYCLE
TNX - The Event we've been waiting for since July We have repeatedly indicated the "Everything Must Go Sale" would begin
once we saw 10 Year Note Yields Cross 1.645 and then move beyond 1.71
to 1.76 and onto 2.12%
All asset Classes being sold is NOT something the Majority of Investors
remotely understand or believe it possible.
Preferring Correlations and Inverse Correlations to remain the Norm.
It isn't and the September Sell-off appears to have been forgotten.
Not surprising, memories are short, convictions are strong.
Price does not care what you "believe" - rather it demonstrates the
convictions of your beliefs.
Belief in the 11X Bond Complex... remains at all-time highs.
Return of depreciating Captial is favored to Equities which continue
to be the perceived Inflation Hedge.
The circular Logic is a complete Sh_t Mix of Mass Delusions as participants
will discover one the Next Great Unwind begins.
Everyone losses a hand.
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With last week's one Day Wonder spiking @ nearly 10% while the DX began
to move over 95... RCO's are again heating up.
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We indicated the Infrastructure Bill would end up @ $1 Trillion after all
the non-sense - Ultimately it was the FEDs handlers who reduced the
increased threat of a Bond Market Accident.
Suggesting DC piddle into a far less Aggressive Final number, Rates were
tamed down, preventing an even larger protest from the 007s.
Monday, President Biden signs into Law - $ 1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill.
AKA - another Giveaway to Insiders.
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How much time does this Buy for the Equity Complex, we shall see.
It will become yet another nail in Confidence Coffin as Inflation continues
to Beat Expectations.
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Q4 begins to see squaring of Position for yeat end begin into December.
With Notional Bets to a Strong finish to 2021 for appearance's sake, there
IS something out there... that will blindside the markets.
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The 30 Year Auctions Failure... did not go unnoticed.
TNX - 10 Year Note YieldNo mention of the 2% jump off the Trend Line for Yields.
We sold TLT 3x today.
ZN, as indicated after the 8 AM Sell, provided the Direction.
The Equity Complex is setting up the Reversal with Squeeze
after Squeeze.
For the next 3 Trading Days - Continue to press all SELLS to 45%.
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The Bond Market will call the FED again...
We anticipate a Chop into one Final High prior to a Sharp Reversal.
TNX - 10 Year Note YieldWaiting on ZN to break 130 again.
Rates up .9% this morning.
IF the FED panders to Equiites.
Bonds will sell, there was an 8 AM EST SELL
TNX - RSI remains above 50The 10 Year Note Yield, in prior downtrends would provide the RSI in the Negative well below 50.
ARCA, as always is used to Prop Up the FANG GANG.
But BANG, the die is cast.
Anticipating a reversal in the 10 Yr Yield into the FOMC, which creates and enforces the SELL in
TECH.
EPS, as indicated months ago, would be a complete disaster...
Delivered.
NQ ES YM - 4 Gaps below
Symmetry mirrors September 15, 2021 reversal setting up.
2% - 2.12% - 2.37% Price Objectives on Break of 1.765
TNX - MeanwhileWhile Higher Taxes for the Muddle Class are on the way.
The Billionaires Boys Club sees the Stimmy as their Salvation.
Higher Taxes? Only if I can get First Abuser Rights to 10X what
I'll be required to pay for "Them"....
The Bond Market believes the Stimulus - "Further Recovery,
Infrastructure, Spending Bill" will get things on track once
it's pared back to $1 Trillion...
How do you mend a Broken Global Economy as Yield Curves
are flattening around the Globe?
You cannot.
Global Markets - showing the way.
And all those people out of work and resources?
F_ck em, appears to be the Path.
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Have a good evening everyone
TNX - 10 Year Note Yield / High to Highs FIB Wave ExtensionsThe 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading
the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection.
Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price
action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the
trend.
The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst
for the test of the Equity Complex 200SMAs.
Given the Complexity of this Counter-Trend, Equites could continue
to rise as Yields Rise for the Short Term.
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The current Environment is dis-similar to 2016 when Yields and Equities
were rising. Traders cite this as a non-conditional similarity and are
using it to Echo.
It is entirely dis-similar and not a confirmation by any metric.
The Markets in 2016 were fueled by a Tax Cut, a Give-away for the very
Wealthy and Corporations.
Since March of 2020, Price action has been fueled entirely by the "V" Shaped
Recovery narrative - Supported by $10s of Trillions in DEBT - Daylight and Shadow.
The Meme's for Buying are far and wide - Fundamentally, they are almost always,
without exception - Incorrect - Fundamentals do matter, Debt matters, Solvency
matters... This abject degeneracy will meet its maker in 2022 as 5/5 concludes.
Never in the History of the US Equity Complex has Factual Reality been this distorted.
It will end with the Equities Markets down 50% - 90% IMHO.
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During Powell's Friday discussion, his admission "Inflation is not Transitory, but here to
stay longer than the Federal Reserve had Initially indicated..."
Any Human purchasing Food & Energy was far ahead of this malaise from Chair Powell.
Inflation Fears will need to be calmed for there not to be a Panic event, we indicated
it would be Supply Shortages devolving into a 30%+ Price increase.
Historically - this is the trigger of prior Inflations throughout History.
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The Hourly indicated it is time to pay attention to a return to Fill at least one of the
GAPs below and backtest the lower trendline, the overthrow appears to be short-term
exhaustion.
This would provide the NQ with room for a retest of the recent highs @ 15483, well short
of our Price Objectives Between 15513/17.
Are Rising Rates Over Rated ?? These are twelve month candles. Since the decline in rates started in 1982 there has never been a single close above overhead resistance on a year over year basis. Are we getting carried away with fear of rising rates?
