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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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TNX.P trade ideas

Global equities remain strong at the end of the monthThe S&P 500 is on track to close its seventh consecutive month with gains after another record close on Wall Street. For many investors, August was a surprisingly strong month for equity markets, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% for the month and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 up as much as 4%, marking its third straight month of gains. Markets in Asia performed well, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Equity Index hitting a more than two-week high. Europe is also on track to finish the last day of the month strong. The dollar weakened again, while the key 10-year US-Treasury yield was trading at around 1.28%. The strong rally at the end of the month was triggered by supportive Fed policies and a very strong corporate earnings season. In Afghanistan, the Taliban celebrated a victory over the US and its allies after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Oil prices continued to move sideways as traders assessed the prospect of additional OPEC+ production, while other commodities gained, particularly aluminum and nickel. Bitcoin fell to around $47,000. The markets reacted exactly as we expected on Friday and continued their positive momentum in the following days. The momentum remains in place for now, and I expect markets to continue to advance in the third quarter as strong corporate earnings and growth rates, combined with the Fed's ongoing stimulus measures and low interest rates, continue to support. Although some sectors such as energy and financials are experiencing temporary headwinds due to slightly lower oil prices and a less steep yield curve, the equity market rally is broad-based. While the technology sector is currently performing stronger, I see cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, industrials and real estate performing strongly in September. Traders are now waiting for Friday's key jobs data, which will shed light on the strength of the economy and influence bets on the Federal Reserve's next move on bond tapering. A strong jobs gain will boost the USD by increasing the likelihood that the Fed will take further steps toward tapering bonds. A weak outcome would likely lead to further USD losses. The best outcome for the stock market would be if Friday's NFPs were close or slightly better than expected (+750K jobs).
TVC:TNX
by MarMat1500
10 YEAR BOND YIELD - Have Interest Rates Bottomed?My count has not changed that much over all the attempts that I have made at finding the right count in this market. Which is why I always ask the question, have interest rates bottomed? I believe once we rise above a couple of key levels mentioned in the video we will have more of an idea. At the same time I find it intriguing how the NASDAQ and Dow Jones both appear to be at an inflection point. I have linked the latest NASDAQ and other ideas below. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
1
Bonds Yields May Have BottomedAfter four months of sliding, bond yields may be turning higher. The first pattern on this chart of the 10-year Treasury Yield is the double-bottom around 1.128%. This corresponds to an oversold condition on the weekly stochastic, which has often marked bottoms for TNX. Next is the price action in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). It tracks longer-dated securities, but is a useful and liquid instrument that provides inverse signals: Notice the rising trend line that began in early June and is now breaking. TLT also had a bearish engulfing candle on July 20 that served as resistance this week. In addition, Wednesday had a bearish hanging-man candle. Those patterns on TLT suggest the uptrend in bond prices is exhausted. (If correct, it means yields will move higher.) This could be a big deal because early 2021 saw a dramatic shift toward value stocks and away from growth. Another move up in yields could revive that trend. Banks and financials in particular could benefit. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
US Government Bonds 10YR Yeld (TXN)A policy of average inflation does not imply that there will be steeper hikes. Three important things are to be noted, then for the other insights of a marco nature, I refer you to the analyzes included in the 30yr chart that you find just below. The FED placebo effect of stimulus packages shows a shorter impact. Trillions of dollars spent create a small positive effect that lasts for less than three months but leaves a massive trail of debt behind. Central banks are increasingly hostage to governments that simply will not curb deficit spending and will not implement structural reforms. Market participants know this and take incremental levels of risk knowing that central banks will not taper, which leads to a more fragile environment and extreme levels of complacency. ECB with a change in its inflation target, would allow the central bank to exceed its 2% limit without change of policy. So if the ECB lets inflation go, some interesting considerations can be made: the euro is destined to become the next "new lira". There will be no reimbursement of debt and we will have two scenarios before us, both very bad: 1) Stagflation or 2) Deflation
TVC:TNXShort
by mgiuliani
1
10 Yr Yields - Potential BreakdownStructure: (-) In a downward channel (-) Broke long-term uptrend (-) Lower highs, lower lows (-) Negative bias under 18 MA, 50 MA and 100 MA (-) Looming "death cross" of 50 MA under the 100 MA Indicators: (-) Falling momentum, but oversold Macro: (+) Strong Dollar (+) Fear is coming out out of the market from last FOMC (?) Friday jobs report Target: 200 MA @ $1.27 Bull contra case: Yesterday's price action could be a fake out and could move higher to $1.62 Would need to break through several moving averages Bullish divergence with slow stochs
TVC:TNXShort
by sanko787