To the rescue 17yr Cycle reveals post COVID19 futureTo the rescue 17yr Cycle reveals: bull market in SPX Gold WTI & bounce in TNX & bear market in USDCHF & DXY. Importantly on 3 occasions no change in DXY after 39 WKS. NOT ADVICE. DYOR
TNX.P trade ideas
TNX and Precious Metals 8/18/2020This is the TNX at the daily view.
There are way too many retail traders who are trading precious metals blindly. The first rule in trading? Protect your profits (capital preservation). Generally, you cannot protect your capital if you're trading something that you don't understand.
The ten-year note is important since it has an inverse relationship with precious metals and a correlating relationship with the financials sector (XLF). The TNX is one of the centerpieces of the financial sector. If the TNX does well, then financials do well. However, when the TNX tanks, then precious metals will rally about 2-4 weeks later... usually. Sometimes the reaction is quicker if out of panic.
On June 23rd, TNX tanked and moved below the middle of the channel (white line). On July 13th, both gold and silver began their super rally.
On August 6th, the TNX began its comeback rally and reclaimed its former uptrend support. On August 11th, gold and silver began their corrective selloff.
To predict gold and silver, it's not only how many buyers/sellers there are. Traders need to consider both the dollar strength and the yields - especially the TNX.
Now, the dollar strength and the yields are locked in a battle to control gold and silver's prices. According to Bloomberg, the dollar is now overcrowded in shorts. Overcrowded means vulnerable for a fierce reversal. If the TNX holds its support or at least remain flat, that may buy enough time for the DXY to bounce hard. If the DXY bounces hard, then precious metals may pullback further for a much better entry price.
TNXWeekly view of 10 yr bond yields. Double bottom forming? Looks bullish. Close above would increase the probability imo.
TNXNot sure what there is to like here. As long as it's below the blue line, rates will go lower. You'll also notice quite a few stocks with this similar chart pattern (think travel stocks). Wouldn't be surprised if those follow suit.
The Big Decision Soon10 Year Bonds are the centerpiece of the financial industry. It's going to make a big decision soon next month. If it rallies, then the banks stocks will have an astronomical rally. That will sustain the rally for the NASDAQ and the SP500. If it goes under, then we may relive 2000-2002 all over again. If the 10 Year Bonds fall, the financial sector will fall. As a consequence, NASDAQ and SP500's multi month rally will come to an end if this happens.
That decision seems to be in early or mid-August. Until then, I will long at major supports.
$TNX - LONG BONDSI wanna be soo long US treasuries right now. Looks like the March bounce was a dead cat and yields have further to drop.
BOND YIELD - Wave E Ending Soon - 20% Interest Rates AheadIf you haven't seen THE ULTIMATE BOND YIELD ANALYSIS VIDEO please see below.
The Wave E Since 1981 is coming to an end which will probably cause some issues among the debt laden.
A swift reversal should occur after the completion of this pattern.
The FED thinks they are in control of interest rates but the truth is they are just following the bond yield.
They think that by buying bonds forever they can keep rates down. The reality is that the markets are in control.
This either marks the end of Wave B or Wave 2, I just don't have data going back far enough to know for sure.
Either way there will be fireworks ahead for the markets, the minimum expectation for this move is 20%.
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10y US Treasury Yeld (TNX)The ruling on the PSPP (Public Sector Purchasing Program) of the Federal Constitutional Court showed another rift in the structure of the European Union. That is, the one between legal systems with a different conception of the Constitution. There are strong parallels with the case of the United Kingdom, where the EU model, according to which a constitution is changed step by step by a court of last resort, has clashed sharply with the British tradition of strong parliamentary governance , which contributed to Brexit.
In the conflict between the German Constitutional Court and the European Court of Justice (ECJ), we are witnessing a battle between two powerful courts of last resort, a conflict which essentially concerns only one fundamental question, namely: the EU is an organization international or a federal state?
Therefore, it is no surprise that investors turn to U.S. Treasuries during times of increased uncertainty as a safe haven for their investments. This happened once again during the recent financial crisis. In fact, the increase in the demand for Treasuries was sufficiently large so that prices actually rose with an increase in the supply of government securities.
THE ULTIMATE BOND YIELD ANALYSIS VIDEOAKA INTEREST RATES
In this video I describe what I call a SEMI IMPULSIVE ENDING DIAGONAL .
It is one of 3 patterns that occurs in Wave E.
It is the only possible explanation for this kind of price action.
This is based on long term analysis with data going back over 1000+ years.
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TNXStill coiling. No position in bonds yet but will act accordingly on a break either way. Bias is down but keeping an open mind. MACD crossed to sell but can easily cross back just as quickly. RSI still at 50 as well.
10yr yield was 15%+ back in 1981. What a time to be alive $TNXA recent false breakout above 80bps seems like nothing :)
TNXThat wasn't what you would call say a, "false move", is it? Better hope not if you want interest rates to stay positive. Long bonds if the blue line breaks.
