TNX(W) Flag Break to WW DB Shark Triplet LowTNX(W) Flag Break to WW DB Shark Triplet Low TL 2007 Break Shark WW EW Ending Asc Wedge .886 First Reactionby Skender105
S&P 500 PE and US 10 Year note PE for comparison...The last two cycles, bonds were most of the time more expensive than stocks... the same thing happened in the 1940s in the US interested rate history, unfortunately, there is not historical data to be showed here about that particular time.... by JoaoPauloPires1111
TNX - YIELDS ???BLUF : 10 YR Yields trending LO'r, Let's see How-Low before it thrust for the next leg?by MikeSans3
ORBEX: Look at Yields for Further Clues in Equities!Equities keep climbing higher on the back of renewed trade and Brexit optimism and also on the back of monetary policy decisions! Interest rates are on hold, but the Fed did cut three times in 2019! Will the surge continue into 2020? And if yes, when can we expect the massive sell-off everyone’s been talking about to take place? ake a pick as we near the end of a cautious year! Timestamps DXY 4H 02:10 SPX 4H 04:10 US Yields 06:10 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice08:36by Orbex2
TNX 10-Year Yield + Repo Problems + Bonds Extreme LeverageWhen plumbing works well, you don’t need to think about it. That’s usually the case with a vital but obscure part of the financial system known as the repo market. Bank of International Settlements has been reporting some very interesting documents connecting overleverage by MULTIPLE hedge funds (potentially even my hero Ray at Bridgewater) in the overnight repo market (making a percentage by loaning it out) which is having ripple effects in the TNX, and Bond market - Forcing the Fed to supply liquidity directly from its balance sheet. But the plumbing (Repo=Liquidity) got blown out, and the Fed is plugging the hole with QE. The about-face interest rate policy from the Fed put significant stress on the overleveraged market. The Bank of International Settlements is just doing routine reports, I think they don't want to be caught up in it. Feels crazy, but I think the TNX might fall further. Stocks and Bonds correlations appear to be absent. by RHTradingUpdated 7
EOY ShitShow? Let's Watch! HEAD SHOTs ONLY!"Conclusions – FX Swap Lines and “QE4” Year-end in the FX swap market is thus shaping up to be the worst in recent memory, and the markets are not pricing any of this. Prices don’t seem to discount the facts that excess reserves are gone and the Fed’s operations still have not added any, and that G-SIB scores are binding and risk large U.S. banks clamping down on market making. If we are right and the Fed loses control over the o/n rates complex going into year-end – not just around the spot turn but the weeks leading up to it – what else can the Fed do? (1) encourage foreign central banks to use of the FX swap lines; (2) start QE4 by switching from buying bills to buying coupons; QE4 would re-fill the Bakken Shale in an instant... as primary dealers stuck with Treasuries would pay off their repos with J.P Morgan, and that would bring us back to the natural state of the token system, that is, a state, where the distribution of excess reserves is uneven once again, and where J.P. Morgan is the system’s lender of next-to-last resort once again. Why is that better than the Fed? QE4 – as much as it makes sense – won’t happen unless the Fed’s hands are forced... and not responding to potential stresses in the FX swap market with the swap lines, may be what forces the Fed’s hands." --Z Pozsar Global Money Notes #26 Countdown to QE4? (Google title if link does not work) research-doc.credit-suisse.com NOTE. . Entropy is basically a measure of disorder. For the universe, the ultimate disorder is heat death, meaning there are no patterns at all in the atoms of the universe. It’s cold chaos. Information is the opposite of disorder and chaos. It has patterns that convey something to the receiver..Surprise is the opposite of predictability ... HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!! Bust-IT!by MikeSansUpdated 3
Ten Year Treasury - Race to the bottom?Watching this closely. Still has some room to run inside the down channel. There is a higher low in place with the August low. I think this plays out slowly over time. There may be a character change but I see potential for a lot of sideways action to down action until 2022. by BobbySpa4
TNX(240) Bullish Cypher WW tgt TL HLTNX(240) Bullish Cypher WW tgt TL HL Wedge RetestLongby Skender104
10 Year Treasury - is rally almost over?Ten year yields have bounced about 50 basis points since the low a couple months ago, but are still down 135 basis points since last year. Looking for rates to fail at the resistance that marks a downgrade that dates back decades. This would be a huge negative for the market and ultimately the economy. Precious metals would be the place to be.by BobbySpa1
US 10 yr treasury rate ROC signal says major rate spike comingSell bonds signal is very extended similar to Operation Twist era. I guess we are waiting for a catalyst to start the spike higher. Bonds are a long term sell hereShortby quixilver2
Bond Market Indicating Risk On Environment?If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of this soft money cycle. Of course Ray Dalio mentioning how there are many similarities to the 1930's-40's. Today we are hearing about the repo market. How money has to be injected to ensure the system is propped up and interest rates do NOT spike up to double digits. Lot of argument whether is is Quantitative Easing (QE) or not. Remember, the Fed cannot mention QE because it could trigger a confidence crisis. QE was supposed to be a one time desperate policy to prevent another 1930's like great DEPRESSION. If it is mentioned we are on QE again people will realize that central bank policies did not work and we are stuck in 0 to negative interest rates forever with QE infinity. QE was a way to inject money into the system by the Central bank buying up bonds. Repo is when the central bank directly gives money to the banks and receives collateral in return...they say this is US treasures but it could very well be toxic assets. The difference between QE and Repo is really new bonds/debt vs old bonds/debts. It still is about injecting money into the system to more importantly, keep interest rates suppressed. Because of this environment, I have said bonds are a great long term trade because central banks will be cutting to 0. Specifically Canadian bonds because I believe the market has not priced in Canadian rate cuts until this past week. Historically, bonds are not meant to be traded. As the European Fixed Income traders say, we basically buy bonds because we believe we can sell it to a greater fool who will buy it. Bonds brought in reliable income, and a decade ago when you retired with say 1,000,000 dollars, you would buy government bonds yielding 5-8% at the time which would provide you with 50,000-80,000 a year...which is enough to live off when retired. Today you would get 15,000-30,000. When Central Banks started QE and began keeping interest rates low, they caused money to flow to the stock market and real estate as money had to chase yield. Again, if you follow my work, today there is nowhere to go for yield EXCEPT the stock markets and why I think they will continue to go up. So let us look at the bond charts. So I am showing the yields. Remember there is an inverse relationship between bonds and yields. When bonds go up the yield drops and vice versa. On the ten year yield, we have a potential bottoming pattern here. Yields bounced at the important support level of 1.40. I am one who believes the Fed will cut one more time this year...something the market has not priced in yet but could very well be pricing in the closer we get to December. This is what would keep yields dropping lower and bonds moving higher as more people price in more rate cuts. This move in yields currently may be a relief move. We have trended (downtrend) for sometime with multiple waves. We have broken into all time new highs in stocks (again not surprising if you follow my work. Have been saying this would happen because of chasing yield). When people buy stocks and exit bonds, we call this a risk on environment. Whereas when one sells stocks and goes into bonds, we call this risk off. Remember, money managers cannot really be in cash all the time. It has to be working somewhere and most of it goes into bonds during times of uncertainty, volatility and risk etc. The Bond chart is also showing a topping pattern (so remember inverse with yield): Just a crazy environment we are in really but continue to watch the Bond market. I expect in the longer term bonds to go higher because central banks will cut rates even more. We then get to a point, which Ray Dalio calls the paradigm shift, where it will not make sense to buy and hold bonds (currently you can still sell it to a bigger fool).by Uncharted-FX11
Uncertainties remain! Dovish statement We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve steepen. ----- Economic reports GDP report was positive/neutral. ADP employment change headlines were good, but analyst are not happy reading into the details. Shortby dorfmanmaster4
Gap always get filledI expect us to revisit support at the green line or at least 1.5 soon, perhaps this week or within the next two weeks. Gaps always get filled!Shortby PickleLiq3
4H)TNX DOWN WITH BULLISH BAT PATTERN!Short $TLT, my last 15min setup was full of crap but this gotta be working. Long live equity!Longby UnknownUnicorn38279732
10y US Treasury Yeld (TNX)FED will be conditioned by exogenous factors such as monetary policy and trade war, brexit and political elections in the EU. In our opinion, the trend for interest rates on the tenth year could reach negative rates. Our goal is -0.10%.Shortby mgiuliani116
Rapid Re-Inflation In Interest Rates/Floor For The Stock Market.The rapid re-inflation in long term U.S. interest rates has caught many flatfooted , and on the wrong side of the trade in the last few days. From a bottom at 1.45 %, only a few weeks ago, the 10 Year Bond $TNX closed today at 1.70 %, a .25 % Increase in yield, from the bottom, a huge move, in a very short period of time. The strikingly quick rebound in long term rates could signify, a potential reversal of fortune, in the ceaseless downward pressure on return going on throughout 2019. Key Point/And The Bullish Assumption Here. The rise in long term interest rates could put a significant floor in equity prices, at these levels as the vast fears of an economic slowdown may soon subside. The anticipation of a potential new even " manufactured "cycle of growth at this point created at this point in the cycle, would surely be welcome news to those who may not have blinked fast enough, and just missed the new trend change. Sell Bonds. Buy Stocks TNX Last 1.70 % + 4.93 % THE_UNWIND 9/10/19 NEW YORK by The_Unwind1117
Big Money Continue's To Fear Something FinancialThe continuous drop in Long Term Interest Rates in 2019 as measured by the drop in 10 Year Bond $TNX Rates merit's considerable caution, and continues to be of growing daily concern. From a high yield of 3.25 % in 2018, when growth assumptions were in full throttle, in the new administration, the yield on the 10 Year has continued to drop off the chart this summer, hitting a new cycle low of 1.45 % just last week. That significant drop in yield now puts the 10 Year Bond perilously close to the major cycle bottom LOW in 2016, at the Brexit Crisis at 1.33 %, shown here on the Monthly Chart. Note the Triple Bottom Monthly Formation on the chart. However,also note the BEARISH NEW RSI Breakdown to new lows a potential very bearish financial omen in the making. That should be a clear warning, that big money seems to think they smell something fishy. For those looking for clues, as to the structural health of the US economy, I suggest that you turn your attention to the long term interest rate market measuring the minute by minute cost of money each day. A significant break of the Brexit Low of 1.33% in the 10 Year US Bond, could suggest more structural damage to the US financial system, than is currently being anticipated. $TNX Last 1.47 % - 2.66% THE_UNWIND 9/3/19 NEW YORK by The_Unwind3318
TNX has to complete triple bottom or inverted head and shouldersTNX has been in a channel for a long time, forming a base of a triple bottom or an inverted head and shoulders. Once the right shoulder or third touch is made, we go up from there. If we don't the bond market (inverted) will go pop, and eventually burst. This is a fantastic indicator that most don't factor in. Dollar strength... if it continues to go higher, that's bad - too high, and if it goes lower, that's bad - stock will follow indicating weaker economy ahead. This QE experiment has finally failed. Cannot continue to devalue currencies, and have the dollar be the sacrificial lamb. The rubber band has been stretched so tight, it is about to give out. Cannot continue to store money at a cost, Cash/dollar is better alternative, until it is not. And then... where to put your money, the mattress in the next bank. So I am short until we touch, then HOPEFULLY long, so this economy doesn't crumble. FED rate cut should help that. And if they stick to their data is strong, economy is strong thing, then they will be way behind the curve here, and the TNX will crash below the third 138. And then playing catch up will be impossible. They are in a touch, very delicate, very fragile spot. Hope they chose wisely. I haven't posted in a wile, so to all my followers, this moment in time calls for sharing this info, hope you all fare well. Shortby claydoctor3
Collapse in yields, but equities not getting the loveIt isn't surprising to see the collapse in yields. However, what is a big tell and signal is the lack of buying in equities over the same period. This would mean there is likely a crowding into bonds for the sake of squeezing out the appreciation (not the yield) and not an interest in using the lower yields in the bond market to buy more equities and take on more risk. This is a warning sign. by MacroTonyUpdated 2
Long Term Interst Rates Appear Very Close to BottomingThe Monthly TNX Chart, the 10 Year US Treasury Bond shown here, reveals long term interest rates may be close to bottoming, despite the hysteria going on in the marketplace, that somehow rates are headed to zero here in the US Stochastic Monthly Indicator on TNX is now as deeply oversold as you will see on the chart for the last 7 years, and looks ready to cross to the upside and give a Buy Signal on Yield. That could mean lower bond prices ahead after the recent almost parabolic rise of the last year. What troubles the bond market may know or think it knows about future economic growth or credit crisis's out there have been consistently priced in as bond prices have risen. However it is also apparent from a reading of this chart, that the chance of any major banking or credit crisis looming out there, may now have already been fully priced in, perhaps even baked into bond market prices.. The bond market thus seems very near an intermediate, and potential long term top. . Recommendation : Short Long Term Bond's 10, 20, and 30 Year Yields 10 Year TNX Last 1.73 % Target Minimum 2.00 % THE_UNWIND 8/10/19 NEW YORK Shortby The_Unwind4415