TNX.P trade ideas
Long Term Interest Rate Yield Plunging !Much is being made about the Inverted Yield Curve
right now where the 90 Day T Bill is yielding 2.43%,
but the 10 Year Note only obtains you a rate of 2.37 %,
for locking up your money for 10 years. Ouch.
Implications are growing that the significance of this inversion
will soon show up in a much more broader economic recession later this year in the United States.,
than expected.
Bond traders live or die on fractions of a % moves in interest rates.
And bond trader's are some of the smartest in the business.
10 yr long term interest rates bottomed at 1.33% in 2016, at the time of Brexit referendum
and then topped at 3.25 % in 2018, as worldwide growth,
suddenly, and with very little warning
began showing a marked slowdown.
Line Break Daily Chart shown here for TNX confirms a massive rollover top in yield,
Look at how ugly that chart looks if you are trying to capture yield.
Consider these possibilities...
1.Is the 50 % pullback in long term rates now sufficient to reach an equilibrium,
between top end growth, and bottom line recession ?
2. Does this dramatic, and unexpected pullback in long term interest rates,
have a much more significant meaning that we don't fully understand yet,
to the health of the US economy ?
3 How will the stock market react, six-nine months out from now
, to the unmistakable signals of a slowing economy that the bond market is foreshadowing now ?
My own belief tells me that the equity crowd, stock market traders and investors, pundits galore,
will simply choose to ignore these striking bond market divergences,
,..until it's too late.
""Don't Worry. Be Happy" :)
TNX Last 2.37 %
THE_UNWIND
3/28/19
Mountains/New York
$TNX $SPY $TLT 10 year interest rate in this mega-channelI am long $TLT bonds as I see $TNX heading for new lows in the coming year.
Yield explosionThe yield curve is still in a bear market.
Downward trending resistance at 3.1%
Once that is broken, it could easily go up to 7% which will act as a magnet due to it being a historical support line (1973-1992) and resistance (1992-2000).
This would be disastrous for the US government as interest on debt would rapidly rise.
More fundamental reasons of why the yield curve would go up is off course the US debt which is absurdly high.
There is no reason for lenders to keep lending at these low yields.
Russia stopped doing it and sold all US treasuries, China stopped doing it and now that the babyboomers are retiring they are stopping as a buyer as well.
Soon only the fed will be a buyer of these bonds.
Long term up is the only way to go for yields and the road is open until 7%.
This would cause a panic since the US will have it very difficult to service the debt without creating more bonds, enlarging the supply.
Very good news for gold (65% of the monetary reserve of the US) which could be doing extremely well just as it did in the 1970's
10 year yield is too damn high! It will be slammed to 1% or near it. or even better just make it 0%. Sounds crazy??... in late 90's or year 2000 if you ever asked people "do you think the 10 year bond will ever yield like 1.5%?" they would of looked at you like a lunatic. Now what is lunatic is the federal reserve went full dove retard with the 10 year at 2.75% and we are not even in a public known main stream recession or state of economic distress. When we eventually will be in one.. 2.75% to 1%-1.5% will be easy since we already were there.
US10YR Yield likely on a Long Path SidewaysUS Yields are likely going to follow the same path as Japanese Yields have taken over the past few decades. In this update i discuss why I believe this to be, and I also break down the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to try and how this will play out.
10y US Treasury Yeld (TNX)In our view the FED will be conditioned by exogenous factors such as monetary policy and trade war, brexit and political elections in the EU.
The growth of the US economy is good, but not so much as to justify an excess of interest rate hikes.
#TNX 10 Year Treasury Note Yield What's UP big dump coming maybeWhat's up. Well DAX peaked last year S&P500 and Nikkei225 kept going up. The "Make America Great Again" maybe. Big "Dump-Ala-Trump" coming soon maybe. That's what bonds telling us maybe Will Crypto go into deep freeze and bitcoin go down by another half (50%) Time will tell. No hurry. Note these are Monthly charts
10 Year Treasury Note Yield to 4%+ in 2020Hi all,
This is publish mainly to link to an analysis on the S&P 500 (published 2nd September and updated today), using the Shiller PE Ratio, that indicates over-valuation of the equities market, as well as pointing towards a possible correction. Increasing volatility from U.S. equities that are less able to provide investors competitive dividends, leading investors to be increasingly reliant on price increases to provide returns.
Increased volatility would normally lead investors to seek safer investment. At the same time interest rates are on the rise, which will in turn make these safe investments more attractive. Anyway, I am not in the market in any way. But am an interested observer.
Good luck everyone and protect those funds. This is published for my own education.
SPX500 July 24th 1987SPX500 price actions are similar to those in 1978 (Today is 07/24/1978)
It is interesting to see how 10YR yields moved in 1987 and today.
The late July 1987, it was around 8.60%. By mid Oct, it shot up to above 10% . SPX500 hit the top on the 26th of Aug 1978 and 10YR yield was about 9%.
My point is that current move of yields are also similar to those in 1978.
It is possible that yields can move towards mid 3% and indices can make one more new high before yields shoots up above 4% and indices tank.
10 YR.Interest Rates.. Break Out Strongly to the Upside !10 Year Interest Rates TNX
have broken out strongly to the upside,
reaching a new 2018 high of 3.16%,
a big money sold the 10 year maturities today.
For a 10 year return, backed by the full faith of the US
the return of over 3 % a year, relatively risk free,
for the next 10 years, may prove to much to resist,
for those investors not comfortable, with the high risk of the inflated stock market.
THE_UNWIND
TNX ( DXY) OILGOOD LUCK
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TUMBLES WITH OIL ... It should come as no surprise to see bond yields tumbling this week along with crude oil. Both markets have been trending higher together over the past year (with a 60-day Correlation Coefficient of .77). And both have similar chart patterns. The daily bars in Chart 3 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) falling 13 basis points this past week. . The TNX is now testing its first line of support near 2.91% and its 50-day average (blue line). If that doesn't hold, a further drop toward its early April bottom (2.71%) could be in store.
Possible bearish impulse in treasury note yield - ShortIn daily and 4 hours charts, i see a bearish divergence in awesome oscillator and the bullish impulse ended. It´s possible that TNX changes the trend.
10 Year Treasury / Mortgage rates consolidating before risingIf you are contemplating whether to lock a mortgage interest rate, consider the chart here. It appears to be knocking repeatedly on the 3% door and will eventually break through and rates will rise. Even if the consolidation dips to the C point, that may not be enough to trigger a rate decrease, but if so, lock it as it will quickly disappear as the rate goes back to D, then a breif dip to E before taking off into the 3% Plus land.
