The 10 year yield: why the 3.33% TP is worrisomeBelow describes the relative historical significance of the yield against SPX.
other ratios to be cognizant of is the SPX/VIX
TNX.P trade ideas
TNX 10 Year YieldThe 10 Year Yield is now above 2.9% ...
From an EW perspective, it looks like Minuette wave (iv) is over.
The Fed is walking a fine line.
The National debt is too high and interest costs will cripple the country at normal rates like 5%.
But China and Russia and even Japan are not buying treasuries and won’t unless and until interest rates are overwhelmingly attractive.
We are in end stages of a crack-up boom.
So IF everyone is selling Bonds who's gone buy ?
If US debt interest costs soar while tax receipts fall and foreigners exit $ assets, US becomes insolvent or Fed buys everything.
Short Bond
Short-term resistance for 10 -year but long term risingWhat we see in the 10-year yields is that the most probabilistic thing right here is to correct to the 38-50% fibs before starting the new rally phase which will make the new highs.
Even though it has many cycles pushing down the pattern is so positively configured that it will very soon start rising again once that correction is over.
That inversely means that the /ZN , the treasury notes are about to start a new rallying phase into resistance which should be sold.
gold and ratesthe 2 are inverse but can travel together in trends. CCI and rsi divergence on rates = down and gold up.
How do we get to FOMC March 2018 without markets correcting?$NDX and $SPX seem on a breakdown path prior to FOMC March 20th 2018 (and $VIX a breakout). There are bearish divs and TNX seems on a path to hit 2.9 by March 19th. Is this all just a manufactured move by market makers and shakers for OPEX week - the main market action feels as 'real' in price action as crypto has recently.
tnx time to launch?Like last time, markets did not like the rise in 10 year, but this time we have reached a bigger level, black line, to cross. It has a lid on it, and someone is standing on it, afraid top let up on the pressure, but if the lid comes off, long tnx, short equities of all shapes and kinds.
To Lock a Mortgage Rate or Not in The Short TermThe 10 YR Treasury Note Yield appears to have met strong resistance near the 3.0 mark and is starting to roll over on the weekly charts. Notice the RSI above 70 and starting to hook downward. Every other time the RSI rolled over at or above 70 for the last decade, the trend was down shortly afterwards. The next likely support is at the 2.5 area, which by then the rates should have come down by at least 1/8th percent on average across the different mortgage products.
Do your own due diligence. This is not investment advice, but is only my observations and opinions.
Start of a bullish trend in the 10 yr NotePA indicating a reversal in interest rates from historical lows as inflation data solidifies.
inverse head and shoulders pattern has broken outhigher interest rates may come soon... lets see if the 3% level is broken on the month chart. Week chart has broken out from its inverse head and shoulders pattern.
10 YR Treasury Note Yield 1993 - 2018Low interest rates. With more ghost malls, more shuttering/cutting back of corporate stores (Sears, Macy's, Old Navy, etc.), with wages down, real-estate up (not for long), food inflation up/serving sizes of containers smaller (shrinkflation)... I hope interest rates aren't bumped up (home loans/car loans/credit card rates).
The stock market will dive soon I think. When it does let's hope that more investors rush into crypto as a safe haven and push prices per coin way up.
Perhaps crypto melts first (current situation) and if the market tanks they may look attractive for investors.
On another note are there any CD's available anymore at 5%? Haven't seen one of those in awhile.
The other day I listened to a call center offering me 0.3% on a business checking account. 0.3% --->WEAK!
We shall see.
US 10 year bond , picture is not clear yetweekly chart shows an inverse H + S breakout. but month chart shows price still within the down trend price channel.
We need more time to see if yields are on the way up.
Economic cycles VS Tresuries yield curveHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Kindly,
Phil
10 Year Treasury rates to break resistance or one more dip firstThe 10 year appears to want to either break above the resistance or take on more small trip down to the e wave on this a,b,c,d,e triangle. If it hits the lower triangle boundary and then bounces, then probability is greater that it will then break the upper resistance. So if you are looking to lock a rate, or float watch both triangle boundaries to see what happens. If it breaks lower boundary, then rates could drop so you can float if the rate drifts down into the lower boundary as long as it does not break the upper boundary first.
Not intended as investment advice. This is an opinion only. Make of it what you will after doing your own analysis first.
GOLD VS US 10 -year yield Gold jumped almost $17 from the yesterday low of $1304.50 and hits fresh three-month high. The main reason for jump is due to weakness of US dollar. US dollar index is trading weak for the past 12 days and closed below neck line support for two consecutive days. It is currently trading around 91.88. The yellow metal jumped till $1321.50 and is currently trading around $1313.
US 10 year yield rose almost 3% from low of 2.40% on strong US stock market and also due to slight jump in European bond yields after positive comment from ECB board member. US yield and gold have negative correlation of 65% for the past one year and 82% for the past four months. So any further jump in yields will drag the yellow metal down till $1287 (10 – day MA)
On the higher side, gold is facing strong resistance at $1321 and any break above will take the yellow metal till $1331/$1339 (161.8% retracement).
The near term support is at $1302 (5- day MA) and any violation below will drag the metal to next level till $1295 (7- day MA) /$1287 (100- day MA). Minor weakness below $1270 (200- day MA). Any break below $1270 will drag the gold till $1260/$1243/$1236 (Dec 12th 2017 low).
It is good to sell on rallies around $1315-17 with SL around $1322 for the TP of $1302/$1295.
10 year treasury bull market is about to end.Once the chanel breaks the bond bull will end and the 2 possible move out of the channel and the area where the the rates could run to and then correct back.
US 10 Yield -Trend line break out(Gold target $1269,EUR 1.1600)A slight jump in yield till 2.43 % likely which is negative for Gold -1.14% and Euro -0.60%
Interest rate spike and its effect on the market. www.tradingview.com
This chart provides color as to what happens after an interest spike in the late cycle. SPX on the back and green lines depict the interest rate spike.
SPX corrects the following days after the spike.
