TNX10 year rates are working on a failed head & shoulders at a trendline going back ~40 years. No telling how high rates could go if this gets back above 3.50.by Essendy0
10 yr yield to see NEW HIGHS target is now moved from 3.55 3.85 /4.00 in the ten year yield That still is not going to be The TOP .As we enter fall production of gasoline slows to produce heating oil causing inflation cycle to pop effecting start of more issues . I want you ALL to understand what a BEAR MARKET looks like MONEY VELOCITY peaked in SEPT 6 2021 .by wavetimer2
Inflation adjusted US 10 Year YeildsInflation adjusted US 10 year yields are FUELED UP & ready to unwind. This will support an IMPORTANT run for gold & silver. When it breaks down below "sleep mode line", a MASSIVE reprice for the precious metals (and miners) will be enacted. #stagflation #silver #gold #fintwitShortby Badcharts6611
That's Bait Version 2Bull Pennant/Flag are firmly pointed towards 2008 levels. Question for the next 3-6 months will be how high can interest rates go before the massive amounts of debt becomes unserviceable. The Bear sentiment will quickly return when the FED has no choice but to continue aggressive rate hikes into 2023. by SPYvsGME6
That's Bait10Y treasury yield is bull flagging to what looks like a return to pre-2008 levels. Question for the next 3-6 months will be how high can interest rates go before massive amounts of debt becomes unserviceable. The Bear sentiment will quickly return when the FED has no choice but to continue aggressive rate hikes into 2023. Longby SPYvsGME3
Bullish For Bitcoin/CryptoThe US 10 year treasury Bonds breaks a major support line @ 2.75. This means more aggressive rally for Bitcoin/Crypto Noteworthy: Do not forget the historical wise saying, "Never invest more than you can afford to lose." Not a financial advise, I suggest using this only as a guide - Do your own research. Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below. Kindly support this idea with your like and comment, thank you.by cryptoblockmeta0
Wave analysis playing out The 10 yr has definitely sniffed out the potential fed pivot. Wave analysis has been spot on. Update to prior idea.by Falconium0
6-7% in a couple of monthsThe structure holds, and 6-7% in TNX is unavoidable as a sunset by end of day. The move will be fast (less than two months), and will take the entire market with it: * SPX will quickly break below 2000 in w3, and then eventually reach 1500 or lower. * EURUSD will hit 0.80 or lower * USDJPY will get close to 100 * Crude will revisit 10-15 range * USDRUB will attempt to break above 200 (150-200 is realistic) Why will the Yen strengthen against the Dollar while every other currency loses value? Because the Yen will be for the Japanese market what the Dollar will be for the rest of the world: a temporary buffer to absorb all instantaneously released liquidity from the fire-sale of all other yielding assets. As I said earlier in my forecasts: H2'22 will hit the markets a lot harder than the 2008. Be prepared.Longby AndyM445
Inflation fighting will lead to economic contraction?The U.S. 10-year Treasury is a very important indicator that is used as a benchmark for mortgage rates. It is also seen as an indicator of investor sentiment toward the economy. The chart below shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. 3% is an important level. In fact, the 10-year yield has been hovering around 3% since the beginning of May this year, as if the market debate over inflation and disinflation has not been concluded. The vertical blue dashed line is the date of the FOMC interest rate announcement, and the orange dashed line is the date of the FOMC meeting minutes release. These dates seem to be important, interest rates turned around the FOMC date since May. The 10-year rate has been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of the year, and the Fed's policy mistakes have sparked worries about high inflation. Will the Fed be bold enough to raise interest rates by 100 points next week, causing the market to worry that inflation fighting will lead to economic contraction, causing the 10-year rate to fall below the uptrend?by Fisherman20181
$TNXFollowing expected path in a corrective decline . Temporary inflation peak ..USD pullback by raulmarcusbruno0
Short tradeBearish running triangle about to close wave E? Could overshoot the A-C line if last week's momentum carries over. RSI (divergence up to the 6hr) gives confluence for correction, if only halfway to the TP margin.Shortby MiserableToppingsUpdated 442
2 / 10 Spread - Bills : NotesIf this does not concern traders. An unrelenting Dump on the head of Safety. Pristine Collateral on the Shallow end of the cesspool? Absolutely not. This is a very real horror show. ________________________________________________ Depression. Generational. by HK_L613319
The Four Quadrants of the Economic CycleUse this as tailwinds for your trading and investments to spot the capital inflows when the time comes. I would say we are likely in the inflationary bust stage (1) coming out of the disinflationary boom stage (4) for the last decade and beyond. I would dare say the Inflationary bust stage is next (2) as the central banks try to kill inflation by raising rates and destroying asset prices. To fix the economic damage they would have to eventually change their monetary policy which would then bring us into an inflationary boom (3) The cycle repeats over and over but I'm positioning for the Inflationary boom stage (3) as I believe this stage will last many years. Editors' picksEducationby AxeCappUpdated 3232536
10 yr yield BOTTOMED today look for 3.64/3.83 new highs ahead AS the ASSET BUBBLE DEFLATES one by one .ALL of the items as stated in the dec forecast 2021 are unfolding . As I stated 2022 20% plus decline plus unemployment will reach its target as well of 6.1/ 6.3 by year end Longby wavetimer0
10y re-testing long term trendThe 10 year yield has fallen back to 2.77 from a recent high of 3.48. It had broken above the multi decade trend line. This move back down will be the second re-test of that trend line. A move back below the trendline would signal a false breakout. A move back above the 3.48 level would confirm the long term breakout. Market bulls will want to see the 10 year back below the trendline. by WadeYendall3
10 yr yield $TNXPossible path failed to reach new highs ? in a WXY correction if C equals A holds ..by raulmarcusbruno111
$tnx 12 MONTH chart. Broken Resistance After DECADES!10 year. You be the judge of when and where this plans to land. Personally, Selloff till end of year. Ending in Covid lows resistance, Then suddenly a massive BEAR run to Covid Support through APRIL 2023 Then DUMP CITYby stockischeap1
10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent. The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789. 9 States had ratified the US Constitution. In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit. Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led to hyperinflation. Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown. ________________________________________________________________ The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds. Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning. At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence. Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months) we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation". Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses, people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very existence. _________________________________________________________________ The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th outsized and front-run dump of $51B. Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs, most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way. Depression concerns are clearly intensifying. 2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day. M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool. _________________________________________________________________ Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates. Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades. This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears improbable for the near term. I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well. The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to Inflation will find its Afterburner. _________________________________________________________________ Entities are not going to step up, this is clear. The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021... How long is that fuse? Not long. Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal are not long for this environment. In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to become far more aggressive. Will they... by HK_L612218
TNX on track to get above 6%The structure for an extended wave 5 holds, and is now very mature. When wave 5 is extended, the 0.382 mark of the full trend usually lies within wave 4, which allows to determine the target for wave 5. The question is: how do I know wave 5 will be extended? Well, we just need to look at the broader market for the answer.Longby AndyM1
Have Treasury Yields Peaked?Soaring inflation and bond yields have hammered sentiment all year. But now there could be signs of yields peaking. A few patterns appear on this chart of the 10-year Treasury yield. First is the October 2018 high of 3.248 percent. TNX jumped above that level for six sessions before rolling over. It tried it again on June 28, but failed. That lower high may confirm long-term resistance remains in effect. Second is the rising trendline along the lows of March and May. The yield closed below that pattern yesterday. Has the trend broken? Third, MACD made a lower high in mid-June as TNX made a higher high. That kind of divergence is a potential reversal pattern. We’ve also seen widening losses in most non-oil commodities: copper, wheat, iron ore -- even natural gas. While inflation remains an issue, those declines could help lower yields. Finally, it’s noteworthy that the 30-year Treasury yield never even broke its 2018 high. That may also suggest that long-term inflation worries haven’t gotten completely out of control. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .by TradeStation10
TNX-The chart you should be following very, very closely!!!I posted about TNX at the end of March and warned that we were in unchartered territory. At that time, TNX had bullishly crossed the monthly cloud which was something it had not done during my lifetime nor probably most traders lifetimes. We are just about to quarter's end (June 30th) and you can see a clear breakout on an Inverse H&S is occurring. I see nothing but tailwinds for this chart within the next 2 weeks so I don't see how we don't close the quarter above 3.056. The measured move implies a target on TNX of 5.502 with the ability to "wick" above to 6%. Debt is becoming more & more expensive by the quarter and it's all happening very, very quickly. In addition, have a look at the quarterly charts of Wheat, Rice, Soy, Corn & Oil...all of them look to be either breaking out on the quarter or they are just bullish AF. Inflation, as it relates to what is most essential in life, has not peaked... Longby VixtineUpdated 7713