TNXNew highs for 10 year rates ahead of the Fed minutes tomorrow. Doesn't look like they'll be slowing down anytime soon either.
TNX.P trade ideas
$TNX still showing weakness but should be HIGHER!Another weak day for $TNX
This should be higher BUT why not?!
Serious negative divergence too
#FED & worldwide #CentralBanks
have made commitment to buy debt
OR
Maybe 75bps won't make it for whatever reason?
Hmmm
TNXDangerously close to being dangerous, if that makes sense. Better lock in fixed rates on all debt you have if this gets above 3.50 imo.
$TNX showing strength but it's being fought$TNX is NOT backing down, so far
Doesn't make sense for it to stay where it was
3.46 is way low for 75bps, UNLESS...
The monthly is worrisome
Granted we have couple weeks left but chances of it selling off are minimal
We're looking @ a trend break
Let's c what #FEDs do
HOW HIGH WILL RATES GO WITH 8 % INFLATION NEXT STOP 3.99/4.25 The chart posted is now updated to reflect ew count and fib projections . the spread between the two to reach 2 % inflation is now in the area of a 5.25 target in the 10 % . this would most likely be seen in march 2023 the final low in the sp 500. . we still have not seen the panic in my work this is due oct 4th to the 20 th So the fractal is very much intact
𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TNX Monthly. Breakout40+ year trend-line resistance broken, backtested and now the 10-year appears to be heading for 5%
$TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $ES_F $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading 📈
TNX10 year rates are working on a failed head & shoulders at a trendline going back ~40 years. No telling how high rates could go if this gets back above 3.50.
10 yr yield to see NEW HIGHS target is now moved from 3.55 3.85 /4.00 in the ten year yield That still is not going to be The TOP .As we enter fall production of gasoline slows to produce heating oil causing inflation cycle to pop effecting start of more issues . I want you ALL to understand what a BEAR MARKET looks like MONEY VELOCITY peaked in SEPT 6 2021 .
Inflation adjusted US 10 Year YeildsInflation adjusted US 10 year yields are FUELED UP & ready to unwind.
This will support an IMPORTANT run for gold & silver.
When it breaks down below "sleep mode line", a MASSIVE reprice for the precious metals (and miners) will be enacted.
#stagflation #silver #gold #fintwit
That's Bait Version 2Bull Pennant/Flag are firmly pointed towards 2008 levels.
Question for the next 3-6 months will be how high can interest rates go before the massive amounts of debt becomes unserviceable.
The Bear sentiment will quickly return when the FED has no choice but to continue aggressive rate hikes into 2023.
That's Bait10Y treasury yield is bull flagging to what looks like a return to pre-2008 levels.
Question for the next 3-6 months will be how high can interest rates go before massive amounts of debt becomes unserviceable.
The Bear sentiment will quickly return when the FED has no choice but to continue aggressive rate hikes into 2023.
Bullish For Bitcoin/CryptoThe US 10 year treasury Bonds breaks a major support line @ 2.75.
This means more aggressive rally for Bitcoin/Crypto
Noteworthy:
Do not forget the historical wise saying, "Never invest more than you can afford to lose."
Not a financial advise, I suggest using this only as a guide - Do your own research.
Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Kindly support this idea with your like and comment, thank you.
Wave analysis playing out The 10 yr has definitely sniffed out the potential fed pivot. Wave analysis has been spot on. Update to prior idea.
6-7% in a couple of monthsThe structure holds, and 6-7% in TNX is unavoidable as a sunset by end of day.
The move will be fast (less than two months), and will take the entire market with it:
* SPX will quickly break below 2000 in w3, and then eventually reach 1500 or lower.
* EURUSD will hit 0.80 or lower
* USDJPY will get close to 100
* Crude will revisit 10-15 range
* USDRUB will attempt to break above 200 (150-200 is realistic)
Why will the Yen strengthen against the Dollar while every other currency loses value? Because the Yen will be for the Japanese market what the Dollar will be for the rest of the world: a temporary buffer to absorb all instantaneously released liquidity from the fire-sale of all other yielding assets.
As I said earlier in my forecasts: H2'22 will hit the markets a lot harder than the 2008. Be prepared.
Inflation fighting will lead to economic contraction?The U.S. 10-year Treasury is a very important indicator that is used as a benchmark for mortgage rates. It is also seen as an indicator of investor sentiment toward the economy.
The chart below shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. 3% is an important level. In fact, the 10-year yield has been hovering around 3% since the beginning of May this year, as if the market debate over inflation and disinflation has not been concluded.
The vertical blue dashed line is the date of the FOMC interest rate announcement, and the orange dashed line is the date of the FOMC meeting minutes release. These dates seem to be important, interest rates turned around the FOMC date since May.
The 10-year rate has been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of the year, and the Fed's policy mistakes have sparked worries about high inflation. Will the Fed be bold enough to raise interest rates by 100 points next week, causing the market to worry that inflation fighting will lead to economic contraction, causing the 10-year rate to fall below the uptrend?
Short tradeBearish running triangle about to close wave E?
Could overshoot the A-C line if last week's momentum carries over.
RSI (divergence up to the 6hr) gives confluence for correction, if only halfway to the TP margin.
2 / 10 Spread - Bills : NotesIf this does not concern traders.
An unrelenting Dump on the head of Safety.
Pristine Collateral on the Shallow end of the cesspool?
Absolutely not.
This is a very real horror show.
________________________________________________
Depression.
Generational.
The Four Quadrants of the Economic CycleUse this as tailwinds for your trading and investments to spot the capital inflows when the time comes.
I would say we are likely in the inflationary bust stage (1) coming out of the disinflationary boom stage (4) for the last decade and beyond.
I would dare say the Inflationary bust stage is next (2) as the central banks try to kill inflation by raising rates and destroying asset prices.
To fix the economic damage they would have to eventually change their monetary policy which would then bring us into an inflationary boom (3)
The cycle repeats over and over but I'm positioning for the Inflationary boom stage (3) as I believe this stage will last many years.
10 yr yield BOTTOMED today look for 3.64/3.83 new highs ahead AS the ASSET BUBBLE DEFLATES one by one .ALL of the items as stated in the dec forecast 2021 are unfolding . As I stated 2022 20% plus decline plus unemployment will reach its target as well of 6.1/ 6.3 by year end
10y re-testing long term trendThe 10 year yield has fallen back to 2.77 from a recent high of 3.48. It had broken above the multi decade trend line. This move back down will be the second re-test of that trend line. A move back below the trendline would signal a false breakout. A move back above the 3.48 level would confirm the long term breakout. Market bulls will want to see the 10 year back below the trendline.
