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CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note

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10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent. The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789. 9 States had ratified the US Constitution. In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit. Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led to hyperinflation. Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown. ________________________________________________________________ The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds. Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning. At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence. Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months) we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation". Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses, people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very existence. _________________________________________________________________ The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th outsized and front-run dump of $51B. Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs, most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way. Depression concerns are clearly intensifying. 2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day. M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool. _________________________________________________________________ Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates. Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades. This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears improbable for the near term. I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well. The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to Inflation will find its Afterburner. _________________________________________________________________ Entities are not going to step up, this is clear. The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021... How long is that fuse? Not long. Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal are not long for this environment. In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to become far more aggressive. Will they...
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2
Have Treasury Yields Peaked?Soaring inflation and bond yields have hammered sentiment all year. But now there could be signs of yields peaking. A few patterns appear on this chart of the 10-year Treasury yield. First is the October 2018 high of 3.248 percent. TNX jumped above that level for six sessions before rolling over. It tried it again on June 28, but failed. That lower high may confirm long-term resistance remains in effect. Second is the rising trendline along the lows of March and May. The yield closed below that pattern yesterday. Has the trend broken? Third, MACD made a lower high in mid-June as TNX made a higher high. That kind of divergence is a potential reversal pattern. We’ve also seen widening losses in most non-oil commodities: copper, wheat, iron ore -- even natural gas. While inflation remains an issue, those declines could help lower yields. Finally, it’s noteworthy that the 30-year Treasury yield never even broke its 2018 high. That may also suggest that long-term inflation worries haven’t gotten completely out of control. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
TNX-The chart you should be following very, very closely!!!I posted about TNX at the end of March and warned that we were in unchartered territory. At that time, TNX had bullishly crossed the monthly cloud which was something it had not done during my lifetime nor probably most traders lifetimes. We are just about to quarter's end (June 30th) and you can see a clear breakout on an Inverse H&S is occurring. I see nothing but tailwinds for this chart within the next 2 weeks so I don't see how we don't close the quarter above 3.056. The measured move implies a target on TNX of 5.502 with the ability to "wick" above to 6%. Debt is becoming more & more expensive by the quarter and it's all happening very, very quickly. In addition, have a look at the quarterly charts of Wheat, Rice, Soy, Corn & Oil...all of them look to be either breaking out on the quarter or they are just bullish AF. Inflation, as it relates to what is most essential in life, has not peaked...
TVC:TNXLong
by Vixtine
7
Yield is technically toppish. Closing month with bearish pinbarFundamentals don't look pretty with the inflation being far greater than the interest rates, but technically we are toppish on the yield. Yes, we broke out of a 40y channel, which makes us shift from bull bond market to neutral bond market, unless we would close the month extremely bull in one of the next months. Technicals indicate we could trade back to 2pct, but fundamentally this is hard to justify. Interest rates could hover between 2pct and 4pct. (2pct being recent historical support, 4pct being trendline resistance in the future) Bond market trading bull (interest going down) last three weeks, forming bearish pinbar on the monthly. Summarized: - Bearish monthly pinbar - Rejection of the resistance trendline formed by 2 earlier tops in late 2013 and late 2018. - RSI overbought and oversold have historically nicely led to sharp reversion. Monthly overbought RSI could indicate shar reversion. Bond market can continue bull / bear on the yield.
TVC:TNX
by pptw
2
Mortgage Interest Rates TNX is an indicator that the mortgage interest rate is pegged to or based off of. Assuming we have peaked at the current mortgage interest rates, given the recent reports of cooling housing market, contrary to the typical summer market trend. This chart is modeling the rate coming down trend based of previous crashes. Helps narrow down a timeline to when we could see interest rates at 5%, 4% & 3%. Another interesting correlation was the crude oil price and TNX following a similar trend. Not sure what the underlying basis for this correlation is. I am assuming oil prices could be a lead/lag indicator to mortgage rates.
TVC:TNX
by ramanrjn
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations. However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far. Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month. As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops. The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June. Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market. So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TVC:TNX
by chsmit
10Y Treasuries target 6% in an overextended wave 5The market is still convinced that everything will turn out just fine and treasury yields are something that the Fed can easily lower if they want to. Well, no, my dears. Ignorance won't save you :) Never underestimate the power of the last overextended wave 5. Once the 10Y paper starts moving above 3% the worldwide repricing of all yielding assets will begin and it will not be pretty. Apple can easily lose 75% of its current value and the rest of the market will follow. A spectacular run into the Dollar and the Yen will bring EURUSD to below 0.7999, USRJPY below 100, ERUJPY below 92. As far as the recent geopolitical events are concerned, US and EU will lose because they will run out of cash, and Russia will win because it has got oil, gas and low debt. After the dust settles and peace treaties are signed to a great disadvantage of the West and Ukraine, a tremendous bullish wave in RTSI will begin (from ~200 to 4000 - very realistic). I reside on the winning side, so I do feel really good about this, especially that the future developments look so extremely obvious.
TVC:TNXLong
by AndyM
1
TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around... 2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see. With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up Yields aren't working out so well. No. Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @ the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing. Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave. Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields. The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments. Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end. Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve. Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon. My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61