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UVXY trade ideas

$UVXY target still +$100, different path to get thereWe've seen an incredibly large rally in stocks, which has taken UVXY lower than I expected, but as long as we bounce at support here, the idea is still valid. The support on the chart is retesting the move that we broke out from end of March. There was a lack of balance on the chart as we saw a 130% move over a 5 day period. So we're going back to retest that region. I think once we retest the region we broke out from, we'll base for a few days and then start the last leg higher. I think this is going to be the biggest move yet and this move will get us to break the lows in SPY. I'm looking for $437-441 to mark the low in the market with an extreme low at $400. I think VIX will see new highs and UVXY will go to $100+ with the resistance targets on the chart. Not sure what the catalyst will end up being for this one, but all of the positive news around tariffs seem to be priced in after today. Most of my UVXY options are stacked from 6/6-6/20 as I think we'll see this move play out by then. Let's see what happens.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
8
UVXY: Tactical Bet on Volatility SpikeProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) is a 1.5x leveraged exchange-traded fund that aims to replicate the performance of an index of near-term VIX futures on a daily basis. This financial instrument is strategically designed for investors seeking to capitalize on short-term surges in market volatility. Following a five-week stretch of trading above the $26 mark during April and May, volatility saw a decline. In the week before last, UVXY moved into a tighter range between $20.5 and $23. However, by the market's close on May 24, it once again approached the $26 threshold. As trading commenced today, the price settled near $23.5. This presents a potentially lucrative entry point, influenced by several factors that suggest an uptick in implied volatility in the forthcoming days. First, persistent uncertainty looms over the U.S. tariff policy landscape. Late last week, President Donald Trump declared the imposition of a 50% tariff on EU goods, initially set to take effect on June 1. This announcement triggered a market correction and heightened volatility. However, over the weekend, Trump postponed the implementation of these tariffs to July 9, offering some respite to market participants. However, trade risks continue to linger. Any forthcoming announcements hold the potential to reignite fears of market volatility. Second, the US Department of Treasury will conduct auctions for 2-, 5-, and 7-year bonds between May 28-30, amounting to approximately $183 billion. In the wake of the recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's, investor scrutiny of demand for these Treasury bonds has heightened considerably. Should the auctions exhibit weak demand, it could prompt a rise in yields, thereby exacerbating instability within the capital markets and leading to a short-term surge in volatility. Additionally, pension fund rebalancing is anticipated by the month's end. Some stock market participants estimate that potential share sales could reach $19 billion, adding pressure to stock indices due to a lack of offsetting demand. Finally, on Wednesday, May 28, Nvidia is set to report its quarterly earnings, being the last of the Magnificent Seven group to do so. The company's stock has been trading within a range for a year, but a recent rally has generated high investor expectations. Investors will closely scrutinize the company's outlook, as the absence of indications for accelerating earnings growth could mean insufficient drivers for continued stock growth, particularly amid intensifying competition in the AI sector. The UVXY instrument exhibits high sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations. During periods of market calm, its value tends to decline gradually due to the adverse structure of the futures curve. Therefore, if one of the described scenarios materializes, it is advisable to take profits once the target is achieved or adjust the position to break even. The price target is set at $26.5, with a "Buy" recommendation. At the time of analysis, the current price stands at $22.6, indicating a growth potential of 17%. A stop-loss is advised at $19.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by FreedomHolding
UVXY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 053025Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 22.5/61.80% Chart time frame:A A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
CBOE:UVXY
by fibonacci6180
UVXY Index Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 052725Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 22.5/61.80% Chart time frame:A A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: D A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
CBOE:UVXY
by fibonacci6180
$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them. If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level. You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here. I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances. Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
2
Short Volatility during rare spikes using leveraged ETF $UVXYOverview Volatility represents how greatly an asset’s prices swing around the mean price. Historically there are rarely brief volatility flare-ups that present trading opportunities. Trying to anticipate volatile events can be costly, because other market participants generally expect the same well known events, and one never knows how big a volatility spike might arise from a given event. Instead if one merely awaits extreme volatility events, which historically are ephemeral, there's a higher probability trade in shorting it. I've thought about this previously, and took the opportunity with Liberation Day to successfully short volatility. Volatility Instrument Selection Choosing an appropriate instrument can aid in the likelihood of a successful short position. Among the options CBOE:UVXY looks attractive for the trade, because it's a leveraged ETF, is highly liquid, and provides options with granular strike prices and expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs are known to decline over time due to Daily rebalancing and compounding effects Volatility drag Cost of leverage Management fees and expenses Path dependency These characteristics of leveraged ETFs provide a structural tailwind to a short position, because the instrument naturally declines over time. This phenomenon easy enough to see on a CBOE:UVXY weekly chart Moreover selection of a liquid product is prudent. At the time of writing CBOE:UVXY has an average daily volume north of $22 million dollars for the past 30 days. Trade execution Execution of the trade starts with recognition of a highly volatile event, this is both technical and discretionary. From there a trader is advised to use their preferred tactics to select entry, stop-loss and exit points. Personally I like to use chart patterns across different timeframes in tandem with Relative Strength Index, and to a lesser extent volume to identify trading setups. I use longer term charts to identify a trend, and shorter timeframe charts to determine entry and exit points. The timeframe(s) depend on the particular instrument and what the charts look like at the time of the trade. During the Liberation Day Volatility Short trade, I've been using 1W, 1D, 4H and 1H charts. The 1H chart has been suitable for entering an exiting trades. Head & Shoulders patterns have manifested both on price and momentum alongside declining volume. I've posted a couple CBOE:UVXY minds along the way. Additional Thoughts Volatility can also be used generally to anticipate moves in other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, crypto and commodities. Using the levels from that last chart fed into successful NASDAQ:TQQQ & NASDAQ:SQQQ trades in the aftermath of Liberation Day.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by quickshiftinn
Major Reversal Ahead for UVXY?We’ve identified a Head & Shoulders pattern, aligning with our Elliott Wave count showing a completed 5-wave move up ✅ This strongly suggests we’re due for an ABC correction to the downside 🔻 🟡 Yellow boxes mark our high-probability targets. This bearish view is also supported by our broader outlook: A bullish move is expected in the U.S. market, which naturally points to UVXY moving lower. Everything lines up — let’s see how it unfolds 👀
CBOE:UVXY
by VitalDirection
12/04 UVXY long Hello traders, It’s time to take a look at UVXY again. Here are a few reasons why you might consider buying VIX for hedging or profit. Either way, it’s not a bad idea to allocate some funds: 1. Potential Yen-Carry Trade Unwind: There’s a strong possibility we’ll see another round of yen-carry trades unwinding as Japan prepares for another prime rate increase. 2. SPY Resistance Levels: SPY is approaching the 6100 area, which is a key resistance zone. I anticipate a pullback to the 6000 area, possibly testing it tomorrow or Friday. This movement could push UVXY toward the 21 level in the short term. Additionally, UVXY is a good mid-term hold since SPY has a higher probability of moving downward than upward in the coming days. May the trend be with you. AP
CBOE:UVXYLong
by aparkon
$UVXY: the next move, to $50?I've been watching the CBOE:UVXY for months now trying to anticipate the next large move. Throughout September and October I was anticipating a larger move to play out, but we ended up just trading in a range. Luckily got a few profitable moves in the chop and got out at the high right before the election. Then I thought there would be a larger drop. I entered in the low FWB:20S earlier this week and sold my spot position today on the move higher. Now what I'm anticipating from here is a decline in vol early in the week and a rally in the market. On Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd be looking to go long volatility again as I think the NVDA reaction after market close Wednesday is going to cause some volatility in the markets. Lots of reasons are lining up to believe the outcome of NVDA earnings will be bearish. I have a pivot on the chart on Wednesday. The NVDA chart has stalled at resistance and gapped lower. Etc. I think this will be the last large move in vol until early 2025 (Feb-March).So in other words, after this selloff the market rallies into Q1 2025. In 2025, we will make volatility great again. I think we're going to see a resurgence of vol and we're going to see covid style numbers get printed in vol with 200-400% moves. However, let's wait until this move plays out first before we focus on 2025. I'm looking to enter calls early next week for 12/20 $30C.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
27