my idea is bullish price is at imbalance and so likely to pull back frm this region the upsideVLongby Kill_zones0
VIX broke 5yr old trend lineThe week hasn't ended yet, but it seems quite clear that we broke a 5 year old trend line to the down side. This may very well implicate that we will NOT get a major crash (this year) and the SPY will rise further. The other scenario is that this is a MAJOR TRAP. But then the VIX will have to reverse within the next 1 to 2 weeks.by MFFD4
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix. Longby International_Leeroy1
cboe volatality indexvix is in downward bullish channel .still not broken but chances are there to break the resistence level . looks like correction and came to the main demand zone . NFA DYORby wyckoff700
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange line represents SPX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. Longby TradersweeklyUpdated 121241
$VIX breaking a bit, showing Positive Divergence - Sold puts MayAs an FYI we're still cautious bull. We did initiate a CBOE:VIX position, by selling puts, as small hedge. We've made clear what the targets on indices were, still think they can be hit. TVC:DJI - 34250 - Major Resistance NASDAQ:NDX - 13400 - Fib level SP:SPX - Major resistance - 4181 But keep in mind; IMF warning global debt levels = DANGEROUS #Fed states > #recession comingby ROYAL_OAK_INC6
VIX upward bias from mid May onwardsDespite the news we see the VIX-Index is moving downwards, which makes sense if one visualises the money-flow energies. We will see the lowest VIX by end of April/beginning of May. From mid May onwards we can expect a critical time for the stockmarket with a bias of weakness or even down-trend as the VIX has the bias to move up strongly. We do not know the catalysts at the moment (banking crisis?) but we know the cyclical patterns of money-flow and that should make us very careful.Shortby Woerle0
VixDaily cci and macd shows selling is drying up here. Accumulation taking process. We've only broken 18 once this year.. My target is 22 or trendline resistance.. from there we'll see what happens Longby ContraryTrader7
One new low is due in VIX after FOMCOne new low is due. SPX should retest 4300. EURUSD may finally close the gap at 1.12, possibly hitting 1.14 in this final shot.Shortby AndyM114
$VIX forming positive divergence while $SPX forms negativeApril has been positive, in fact the BEST MONTH, 16 of last 20 years & has an avg 2.5%! The orange line coincidentally is around 2.5%! We've sold TVC:VIX puts further out into May :) Have a ton of $ reserved for that trade. Easier 2c neg divergence on 4Hr vs positive on TVC:VIX #stocksby ROYAL_OAK_INC2
A Deeper Looking Into VIXThere are issues when it comes to the VIX volatility index's ability to project impending volatility - in part because options themselves are increasingly speculative vehicles rather than mere hedges to the underlying - but there is still a lot to glean from the the implied measures of activity. Aside from the SKEW in implieds showing tail risk and volatility of volatility gauge showing underlying habits of jumpiness that the VIX alone doesn't well capture, I like the comparison of a shorter and longer duration gauge. I thought we didn't have any robust short-term implied readings for the US indices space since VXST was scrapped some years ago, but apparently we now have CBOE:VIX9D - which covers is pretty self explanatory - relative to the 30-day traditional index. It's not the 'overnight' relative to '1-week' I like to pull from expensive data providers for FX volatility comparisons, but it can give useful insight. What do the VIX9D - VIX suggest now? That we are underpricing the potential for a strong reaction (regardless of direction) heading into Wednesday CPI and Friday bank earnings.by JohnKicklighter1
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / COMPRESSION / DIVERGENCE / PUTOVERCALLDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an update on a MACRO analysis of VIX VOLATILITY CYCLES. The creation of a set of new cycles is marked when VIX finds a new floor of support. POINTS: 1. Deviations have been adequately adjusted for VIX with a 7 Point difference between CHANNELS. 2. Price Action is currently resting at NEW FLOOR of 19 & Price Action is consolidating. 3. 5 YEAR TREND LINE IS APPROACHING MONTHLY PRICE ACTION FLOOR. 3. NO RECESSION AFTER 1998 HAS EVER COME TO AN END WITHOUT VIX FIRST SPIKING TO 40 OR 45 AT LEAST. RSI: There is in fact a lot to be said for RSI as it rests roughly below the 50 Point average which would signal that RSI is set to flip into Oversold territory. RSI must reach the 30 Point average in the coming weeks or anything above the 30 Point average & rising could signal a divergence occurring between ascending RSI LEVELS & CONSOLIDATING PRICE ACTION WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SOME VIOLENT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MACD: As of now MACD is resting at an average oversold level of -2.0 but is signaling a move to the upside in coming weeks. MAIN POINTS OF CONTROL: 1. RSI DIVERENCE OCCURS AS RSI RISES & PRICE ACTION CONSOLIDATES. 2. MACD FLIPS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. 3. A BREAK OF 21 POINTS FOR PRICE ACTION CAN BE INDICATIVE OF FURTHER UPSIDE FOR VIX IN THIS SCENARIO. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX Longby DGSTBROKERACC4
✅VOLATILITY INDEX WILL GO DOWN|SHORT🔥 ✅VOLATILITY INDEX was trading Along the rising support but Then the breakout happened And I think that it will go Further down SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅Shortby ProSignalsFx4415
VIX Bearish Bias! Sell! Hello,Traders! VIX broke the rising support And was consolidating below The broken line so I will Be expecting the move down To continue towards the 17.00 level below Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!Shortby TopTradingSignals101075
Fed today and expected moves in price and volThe Fed decision today with probably give the market their expected 25bp hike, the devil in the detail is always the press conference and any potential guidance offered, the market is pricing in much slower and ending to rate hikes and possible cuts by year-end. BUT he has consistently said there will be not cuts this year !! and that could disappoint bulls and a quick reversal could ensue. place your bets and good luck out there. Today is about watch the first hour after the announcement manage existing positions and don't get sucked into the frenzy after the announcement the Algo's will kill you by MarkLangleyUpdated 2
Largest Crash of our Lifetimes is here! For Starters - Go Watch this guy as he is 100% spot on. twitter.com Lets start with a Chart of the VIX From October 12th (the bottom of the last market rally). Using the 1hr $VIX Chart, you can see we have 5 open gaps. We filled the last gap TODAY: And in fact - we now have a gap overhead! And the VIX bottomed directly into its 100month SMA. If you watch the SPX and the $VIX side by side, this rally has been mechanical and algo driven, filling both SPX and VIX gaps during the entire rally. Onto the SPX. SPX I think set a very sneaky bull trap at the 200dma this week. We are back into an upper trendline which is where the 50w sits as well. SPX has a small open gap at 4200 - but that is going to be REALLY tough to fill from here. What SPX does have is open gaps all the way down to 910 from 2008 Here is where the real pressure come from - Bond yields are about to Each Selloff in the SPX from this upper trendline area has been around a 20% drop. This would take us down to ~ 3200 on SPX and fill lots of downside gaps. The REAL Driver - Bonds. The bond market has largely priced in all of the Fed Rates Hikes and has moved on. What it is starting to look for now is "what is next". What comes next is the slaughter of earnings in Q1 of 2023. Here I show the 2yr Bond (which is basically the shadow Fed Funds Rate) in candles, the actual Fed Funds Rate in Orange, and $TLT in Blue. What you can see is that basically EVERY TIME that the 2yr (candles) crosses BELOW the Fed Funds rate (Orange Line) - the long bond (blue line) starts a massive rally as the next Fed rate cut cycle is coming into play. What Bulls don't understand is that when the Fed is cutting rates in a global recession - that isn't bullish. It's VERY bearish because the underlying economy is deteriorating and the companies earnings are crashing. If you aren't long Bonds already, start building a position. TLT could easily double in the next year. The 2s/10s Yield Curve is the most inverted it has been in HISTORY You want to buy bonds when the curve start to UN-INVERT as this means the front end of the curve is going to 0, and you will get massive capital appreciation of long bond holdings like TLT Energy has already caught on Energy stocks are WAY overdone - and Oil is starting its next big leg down. Oil is extremely sensitive and has already caught on to the coming massive global recession in 2023. How to Play This 1) Buy Long bonds like $TLT or $ZROZ 2) Short indexes/banks/Semi Conductors / Energy Shortby Baero-TradingUpdated 161631
weekly VIXweekly VIX mid RSI in the mid 40s looks to move up, SPY weak to end weekShortby PapaBearBryant3
The curious case for a $28 VIX trip... FUD about to hit markets?FUD FUD FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. The 3 letters every trader on the street should know. No matter if you are dealing with Cryptocurrencies, Stocks or Forex, no one wants to wake up to an overnight position hit by FUD. The VIX has long been known as the leading indicator as to the sentiment of the markets. It is known as the fear index and right now it is unreasonably low compared to recent history and current events. I mean we did just arrest our previous President and current candidate for President. Away from politics we also found ourselves in a currency war with the BLOC using the Chinese Yuan for settlements over the US Dollar. Well aside from economics, we still are funding our ongoing proxy war in Ukraine with the only other 2 superpowers on the planet. Well, Away from politics, economics, and war.... Oh wait, yeah the data on our economy came in pretty meh (not impressive). So why in the world would the VIX be representing so much strength? Careful, you are starting to think for yourself and our TV overlords don't like that so much. But you are starting down the right track. The VIX should be easily in the low to mid 20's but instead its flexing at 19.01?!? For reference the 50 Moving Average is 20.63 and the midline of the current Bollinger Bands is 22.04 with the low band being 16.83 and the high band being 27.25. If I was thinking about the next few weeks I would probably think that our world right now is providing significant enough risk to justify a trip northward towards the midline @ 22.04 but actually even higher to the high band of 27.25. Recently we touched 29 multiple times in recent weeks but immediately rejected and shot down to the 19.01 where we sit currently. Rejecting off a ceiling once, twice and even sometimes three times is common but I probably wouldn't need very many fingers to count the times an Index pegged a ceiling 4 times and didnt break through it significantly. The market has stayed propped up on hopium for long enough and now its time to start pricing in reality. All is NOT well. I don't view this as a doomsday scenario at all but we need to move closer to reality. I see 28 as a start, it would signify the markets beginning to accept reality and no longer rely on the Buy the Dip hopium that retail investors bankrupted themselves on over the last 2 years. $28 Vix is what i see coming. Just documenting my own thoughts from my own charts. Dont mind me. Most likely not a human anyway. Longby TheStockMarketSniper222
$VIX @ lower level & indices closing in to MAJOR RESISTANCEApril has been the most profitable month over the last 2 decades for #stocks. The SP 500 has been positive 80% of the time with a 2.5% return. Posted on this yesterday, but not here. ATM we're @ the lower end of the $VIX & close to resistance levels for indices; $DJI $NDX $SPX $VIXby ROYAL_OAK_INC3
VOLX TO THE MOON!!!We are forming what looks like a DB structure in long term. This should be long-term trade all the way above the GZ to 30+. SL below the bottom BZ. Good luck.VLongby matejmn0
VIX to $64 We can easily see a spike up to ~ $64 on the VIX if these narratives continue to worsen in Ukraine. Correlations are approaching 1? VIX will soar.Shortby MULMANUpdated 0
VixWedge on top of wedge.. Vix setup looks bullish here First breakout would be to 20 or major wedge resistance sometime this week.. The real sell will come when we break over the yellow wedge Shortby ContraryTrader5