VIX - Look look !Well.. actually nothing to see here. All goes 100% as expected and expecting a bounce up from the circled area. Additionally I have underlined TrendExhaustion and RSi as they are showing signs of exhaustion - Bearish for stocks !!!
VIX trade ideas
Vix to 25 Falling wedge has turned into a bear channel. Has some support at 27 where we might dead cat before heading to 25
VIX interesting fractalI have checked the amount of days from Mar 2020 first spike to the main low of this VIX smile, its 491d
If counting from the same low day 491d it comes to Nov 2nd! give it plus one day in case I should of start from the following day of the mid low.
Very interesting timing.
Also week of Nov 7th is a cycle panic week...
Im only looking up in VIX
2X 4HR VIX ANALYSIS (200 EMA) (NEXT STOP BEFORE RUN !?)The Vix is the end all be all for stock once it spikes up. AS we look at previous cycles and price action we can see The vix is at a key level where it took off from october 22nd and september 22nd. If we get a reject or bullish confirmation look for the market to sell off because if volatility stays above 35 mark off buy areas for your favorite stocks and get ready to load puts stocks will discount way more!
VIX - Still in the gameVIX is consolidating at very high levels - bounced off of the double top neck - possibly will plan to fill the weekend gap now - If we break to the downside - then 2008's scenario is still in the game and we revisit double top's target.
If we keep going uip and break that htf and ltf curve - we head into unknown territory with sky being the limit.
VIX at potential reversal zone, yet NASDAQ/BTC/SPX looks bullishThe VIX is at a potential reversal zone, which is alarming, considering the NASDAQ is confidently bullish presently.
VorheesIn July I posted a prediction that VIX would break down August 1st and my target at the time was 14-15. However, it is known that the V is for Vorhees, he doesn't stay down and controlled for long, bullish Navaro200 nested in larger bullish Navaro - as well as harmonic on the stochastic (and severely oversold) - indicates we will see a spike in the coming weeks to the 0.618... Expectations:
- Activation level is 21.18, if closes above that expect explosive spike to 24 minimum but likely 29-30
- If fails to activate then it could continue down to 14-16 level but that would be awkward with the SPY showing signs of near-term pullback on a wave 4 following this local blowout top (should see the downside begin early to mid week (16th seems most likely)
- If activates and hits 29-30, will likely bullback to retest 24 in sychronicity with SPY wave 5 late August/early Sep.
- After this it has the setup to breakout temporarily through the equilibrium point where supply = demand (around Sep 26 2022) - this would be in syncronicity with an ABC corrective wave in the SPY before it begins larger degree wave II
- Depending on the extent of SPY ABC (i.e. 0.5 or 0.618, or 0.786), VIX goal target in early October is 36-47 (possibly even 51).. It will die again from there like Friday the 13th and likely around Halloween.
Last part is a joke but the rest is no cap.
Playing Aug 26 VXX calls for exposure to this move, will sell when VIX hits 29-30 and then re-enter October calls upon a realized bounce at 24 end of August.
#NoTfInAnCiAlAdViCe
Vix on life supportStill showing a falling wedge but yesterday Close beneath the daily 21ema and out of uptrend which is bearish.
Also the falling wedge would then turn into a double top if we break support wedge support or purple line.
If Vix is a double top and it breaks support then the vix is heading to 25 white line. Which means the Markets could have a bear rally through next week.
VIX is at DemandMust hold here! should explode soon imo
Staying elevated for a while, next stop wont be at 35 level but 45+
VIX is still in a setup to blow off the top move to above 65+Im still very bullish on VIC and want to see 2x on VIX at min, ideally we get even 2.5-3x
VIX OPEX is behind us and monthly will come tomorrow, after that we are free to move in a wider range and have new levels to be seen.
Nov is a panic month!
VIX looking for breakout today or tomorrowVIX is looking like its getting ready to break out of the falling wedge it's been trending in
I could see it breaking out before EOD or early tomorrow at open
Other supporting technicals are pointed out on the chart
Fake move on VIX? #VIXHi Everyone!
Looks like VIX wanted to move higher but faked it (double top pattern, RSI confirmation).
My target is low 20's.
Look for a relief in stocks.
VIX - to the dotVIX still doing what is expected - it crossed both lines and now is forming a double top which will lead into a small relief in the stock market - just like the fractal shows - we should retest that lower area before going into infinity.
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading.
I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis.
I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis.
I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing.
But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again.
We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep.
Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree).
Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right?
All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down).
So, how do I plan to profit from this?
Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea.
And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100.
Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle.
Thank you for reading.
This is not financial advice
CHANGE OF PLANS $VIX LONG ABOVE 30VIX IS HOLDING 30
this is a big deal
UK will continue selling gilts on november 1st
us midterms nov 8
alot of vol can happen
VIX is looking very bullishVix is currently trending in a falling wedge formation (possibly looking for a bullish brekaout)
If it breaks the wedge then theres a chance VIX is forced to the top resistance line of the pennant its formed.
Theres also a possibility that the breakout of the wedge forces it to breakout of pennant and push even higher.
If this happens then we could see a VERY red market.
Supporting ideas and technicals are pointed out in the chart.
Vix , Stay tuneAlmost identical move to the DXY.
Pulled back to 21ema
Formed a falling wedge
Bullish target 34
T
VIX is getting ready for that huge pop imoThis is getting super close. Wont rule out a fake down and then move up to above $60 level.
Some out there made a bet with Apr 2023 100 Calls for $4mil plus on Fri
VIX is telling you somethingVIX already broke the curve and even retested it.
We will doomp heavily in the coming weeks/months.
Don't invest long-term for now.
Volatility is coming!Vix is not looking good in the weekly charts.
Be careful about your stock positions..
Bullish vix over 30Steady up trend .
Retested former resistance Friday (White line) and bounced...
Unless we drop below 30 I'm bullish here. I think when the vix does break its uptrend the spy will break its downtrend (Inverse).
$VIX SHORT / LONG RISKThe $VIX is not breaking out here...contrary to many $VIX TA experts
we have experienced many events over the past few weeks and equities have failed to break lower, even after a CPI plunge
True FEAR and panic selling is not here yet
wait for the right time to attack the vix
CHEERS!!
