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Volatility S&P 500 Index

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VIX trade ideas

Edge of a Precipice Will we ever see VIX at 16 again? Here I explain the mean reverting nature of VIX. Then I predicted exactly were VIX and JHEQX would be on Friday, October 7th. Now we're sitting at the edge of a precipice of the worst financial disaster in history. So I wrote an indicator to give us retail traders an inside eye so maybe we could catch a long vol opportunity of a lifetime. If you understand how a large institution positions assets and how they hedge against a market correction you can a) find these hedges and b) use dealer positioning to predict it. That brings us back to VIX. Vix is calculated using SPX Weekly options rather than stocks. If Vix sustains higher levels for longer it is telling us liquidity is bad. As more institutional players position to the downside eventually there will be too much money on the same side of the boat and the boat will flip. Think of market participants as people on a boat and the waves are volatility. As the seas get more violent (swings up and down in market price) people on the boat are going to try to find a position best suited for the volatility. Ask yourself now, is buying puts a good way to hedge downside? No. Fixed strike implied volatility is a disaster. It has been collapsing for nearly the entire year. Institutions protecting assets (like British pension fund managers apparently) with puts are getting worse and worse returns hedging with puts. You may be able to pick off edge as an active trader by buying well timed Puts and cashing in on premium kick for a quick 100% return, but these fund managers holding puts are getting destroyed. Instead, institutions are piling into selling puts while shorting stocks. We all know what happens when too many shorts pile in, they frequently get squeezed. I was expecting short squeezes to take hold when Oil started climbing. Because the alternative is JHEQX leaning negative into an already crowded short side and a VIX > 32. And that is exactly what nearly happened on Friday. If futures drop overnight or price drops below 3580 JHEQX will start selling and the only thing stopping a drop to 3200 will be the FED with its left tail tucked between their legs with some fresh QE. As a great philosopher once said. "Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it's here"
TVC:VIX
by SPYvsGME
16
VIX - Stocks Sentiment in preparation... for the ultimate drop. So we have broken the top curve - that is bad as hell already in itself. Additionally we retested it and have been trapped since then between the top descending trendline and the curve. What I expect to happen next is for VIX to consolidate ( or break to the upside and retest the trendline ) until EOY. Check my US100 idea to see what stocks predict in the meantime. As a reminder - VIX has never shown such sentiment "moves" as we have nowadays - but just once in the past - And that one time has been replayed perfectly so far - that's one of the reasons why I expect VIX to consolidate or even show slight signs of minor-relief for stocks until Christmas season. Cheers!
TVC:VIX
by TheSecretsOfTrading
VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD. Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks. However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020. That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
If fear continues to dump, it might be lights out for the bears!Traders, Everything is playing out exactly as anticipated. U.S. Dollar topped. S&P500 looks to be double-bottoming. Bitcoin has broken to the top side of a year-long bullish descending wedge. And fear continues to dump. If all these charts continue to work in correlation together, it might be indicating "lights out" for those bears. Watch these things closely or follow me as I keep you all up to date on the progress on all. Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
1
VIX - Volatility is likely to continue higher In tandem with our expectations, VIX reached our short-term price target of 30 USD during the FED meeting, constituting a new high. This development hints at a deepening bear market, which foreshadows a more significant spike in volatility over the coming months. We draw this conclusion from a combination of factors. These include fundamental factors on the level of central banks, like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and technical factors associated with major stock market indices, all pointing to more weakness ahead. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bullish bias on the volatility index. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 35 USD; however, we would like to change it from a medium-term price target to a short-term price target. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14
VIX Another RejectionIt looks like VIX 4hr has had yet another rejection off the key structure resistance. There were quite a few big out of the money call buyers on the Nov 16 calls and they all cashed in at resistance again which is always interesting to watch. This is mostly institutional buyers. Meanwhile the retail stock option traders are holding record put options on stocks totaling over 34 million contracts. Was it a massive bear trap that we saw on stocks? Time will tell how much short covering we see in this attempted rally.
CBOE:VIX
by TheTradersBias