CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility IndexCBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility IndexCBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index

CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index

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ES1! NQ1! SPY QQQ VIX3M

Calling it. Reversal is here this week and possibly next week. VIX term structure is above 1.0 over 3M VIX. ES decline by 9.84% over 19 days. Completely running on extreme fears, ALMOST everything is priced in (caveat: CPI number coming in hot on Wednesday could add more volatility).

BUT The odds are in favor of short-term face-ripping rally by at least 4-5% is fricking long overdue. Stocks have gotten so cheap (ie. GOOG, META, quality names) that sooner than later will see a shift in buying sentiment.

Sure maybe you can make an argument for shorting the rips, but past history has shown that after a steep sell off like this, being short at this point is extremely bad dislocation.

(Not financial advice)