VXF - Daily / DivergenceStealth Accumulation.
AO showing signs of Indecision.
Next few Sessions - RT.
____________________________
8:30 AM EST provides the Direction.
Bonds Falling again.
VX1! trade ideas
VIX - Settlement Range for Continuous ContractSpot Vix - 22.05
VXZ - 21.45
VXF - 23.70
_________________________________________________________________
Tomorrow the New Continuous Contact for the VIX will begin trading.
To project Price we need to consider the VXZ / VXF Spread (Roll Yield) and
use Draws for both months to determine the Point of Convergence for Price
based upon Draws for both Contracts.
The VXF Chart above provides the Price Objectives and lower Gap FIlls.
The VIX has been trending down for some time now and may continue the
trend into year-end.
Clearly, this gives the ES YM RTY room to move higher.
__________________________________________________________________
We indicated yesterday the RT Potential and Price Objectives above into the
Gap Fills as the Lower POs were front-run by a significant Margin.
The NQ kept the 615 pivot gyrating until it moved tp and through it during the
3 PM EST to 4 PM EST Hourly Bar.
In the final Hour, the NQ would trade below the 615 Pivot for the last time.
ES, exactly the same pattern.
YM, a bit different, but close.
___________________________________________________________________
Into Wednesday's during Settlement, we will see the direction for the rest
of the year's - Low Volume Price action in all probability.
We traded the Lows of the Range and the A/D was sitting on Lows, it can stabilize
or Rise.
It remains a very Negative indication, as do all longer TF Charts.
____________________________________________________________________
RT Anticipated, RT in Trade - Gap Fill.
VFX has some catching up to do on the downside.
It will provide a Lift to the Indices.
Momentum Cloud to Trending Cloud Supports is the Price Objectives & Gap FIlls
remain lower.
VIX - VXF DailyES makes a Lower Low, VIX Higher Low.
Sounds about correct for the VX Complex.
Trading the 50 with no break yet implies a RAT for Indexes.
.382s remains the RT POs as weakness is prevalent.
__________________________________________________
Keeping VX collared is not working, the E YM NQ RTY continue
to sell to lower POs.
Proximity to Margin Calls is the danger now.
Mid / Large Cap Winner remain in Distro.
VIX - Daily: VXZ / VXF / VIX Spot-CashThe NQ will have the wider swings into Year-End
as the Range has expanded from 150616 to 16302.
The VIX may range into Year-End permitting the ES
to build out the Symmetry.
The NYSE Remains collared at the Lower end of the
Range.
VX has been compressing into Year-End.
Wednesday will confirm as 96% of m1 is loaded
on the CM-30 VXX.
____________________________________________
Implied Targets for VXX 35.16 to 45.36 on reversal.
This implies a large and very extended decline.
Donside Momentum is building, how long can they
keep this collared... we' will see.
I maintain we will test the Dialy 377 SMAs for the ES NQ YM RTY.
It will be a 5/5 decline or should be... the Algos have been very good
at breaking Candles, FIBs, and Symmetry - Far too many False moves.
There are a very Large Number of Sellers overhead for the Equity
Complex.
VX should be relieved of the foot on its throat into the new year.
VXF - 1 HourOver 23.60 and the VIX remains in a Bid and a Long.
It has become far less technical than the Indexes.
Roll to settle is creating an Arbitrage which is suppressing
the VXZ VXF VXX.
VX Complex collared by the Operators.
VXF continues to struggle at Cloud Momentum.
______________________________________________
4X Expiry and enormous Ranges on each Index.
Price is moving into the Lower end of the October Range.
DX Weakness may provide the sport for the Equity Complex
to produce a Counter-Trend off their Lows.
_________________________________________________
We closed :
NQ @ 735
ES @ 635
CASH @ 100%
VXF - The Blow Monkey2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening.
Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into
the Close.
All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold.
Continued Distribution.
__________________________________________________________________
With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100% of VXX concentrated in VXF, the
horror show begins Wednesday / Thursday - that is 100% certain.
Who gets the Hall of Mirrors treatment...
Stay Tuned - as the Lower High, until it is confirmed suggests a lower low well
below the 4260 for the ES.
A higher high and a friendly Pelican with a mouth full of fish means this complete
mess could trade up into Mid January, prior to letting go into MARCH.
___________________________________________________________________
VXX - FAILURE IS 21.39 and then confirmed by 21.28 then 20.36.
Sound unrealistic? Yeah, I feel ya.
VXF 21.10 Price Objective on Pullback...
VXF is above within the Chart Frame - Cloud Momentum and Trend have been the
RANGE.
Expect more complete insanity... expect nothing less.
We remain 100% CASH until 230 - 3 PM EST.
Should APPL reverse and retest the Highs, the Vomit Comet is my ride.
__________________________________________________________________
ALL OR NOTHING for the Operators.
Sure would like this to be easier.... it's not.
Prefer to enjoy this, I'm not.
VXZ - VIX M1 / V1 Into Settlement240 Ticks to Gap Fill.
Settlement Wednesday.
FOMC Wednesday.
______________________
Short Term, Gap Fill Probability
is increasing on ES Symmetry.
A Full Retracement could be in Trade.
VXF - VIX M2 / V2 Into Settlement200+ Ticks to Gap Fill
VXZ M1 / V1 lower Gap Fill
Continuous Contract simulated in next Commentary.
_____________________________________________
ES breaks ATH this week and M1 will correct sharply.
VXF - Roll M1/V1 VXZ into next WednesdayThere are complications into next week.
In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit
me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck.
Fail on Drama, apologies
_____________________________________________________________________
An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences begin to Form
once again on Larger Daily and Weekly Timeframes.
Delta is being hedged - simply not in a way most are paying attention to... typical
and opportunity.
______________________________________________________________________
I am seeing 2 very distinct patterns within the Delta Squaring.
Both create immense Risk of what should be referred to as the Cascade Trade.
The over/under will depend on how aggressive the Operators become today, should they
be unable to unwilling to support Price today, it is a very large Negative Omen.
There exists a Protection Trade well below and not above.
________________________________________________________________________
\We will begin to see which way this breaks shortly - Roll/Settle remains ahead.
Within the Pivot, whichever way it breaks ST will reinforce the Trend.
VIX - Below 23.65 / Globex Fun RunIndices continue their Rally.
I am posting an analogue for the Indices
this morning to demonstrate how similar
the RTs are to a recent point in time.
We see a large RT during Globex due to the
Vix beginning its pullback.
______________________________________
Privately, I was contacted by a number of Traders
a few hours before the close - they all now understand
why we indicated closing all SELLs and moving to CASH
was the proper Trade Plan.
Deeply oversold conditions always RT.
China kicked the party off over the weekend with relaxed
standards for their Banks
Chinese RE ETFs had been sold wholesale over the prior
3 weeks. They began to level off Monday - the AX50 and HS
also caught support.
a clear turn around in volatility (vx1!)sell climax in S&P500 futures should drive a buy climax in volatility index futures followed by a bumpy ride back down below the $21-20 area for VIX
VIX - DAILY @ ST 2/2By the numbers, the VIX has repeatedly moved to Extension Price Objectives.
In addition, each has been exceeded signaling a move higher.
Pullbacks are limited to Globex.
High are made during RTH.
__________________________________________________________________
Important SMAs Crosses... they ere a sign as well.
VIX - Daily / LTF MM's 1/2As Breath began to indicate an overall collapse in August, narrowing
of each successive move high in the NQ & ES were driven by the heavy
weights within each Index.
The "7" held their ground after Q3 reporting led to some clawback.
AMZN was the first to decline, signaling trouble ahead.
VIX start buying calls with 1 to 3 months of timeBUY vix calls in the 1 to 3 month time frame here.
use a reverse pyramid ratio so
atm 1
otm 3
deep out 6
and repeat this as a unit slowly
VXI - VXZAPEX Key - Protection remains Bid out to January 2022.
It can Pullback today or tomorrow.
It will depend on whether the Indies begin to converge
on Lower POs below, by example, the NQ can drop 300+
Points today...
No rush, patience wins here. Entries will be provided.
_______________________________________________
Sobering up underway - Rehab T4ades are crushing the Memes.
Our dear Ape friends... AMC sub 30, was early on it breaking down
but not in doubt.
The critical issue is when Oil slows its decline as Food Producers
have already put planned prices of 20 to 22.5% in Q1 Food Prices.
When this hits... they had best have Trillions to dole out... Or Political
unrest is all but assured.
VIX - DAILY + FED @ 12/12The directors of all twelve Federal Reserve Banks favored maintaining
the current primary credit rate at the existing level (0.25 percent).
In light of the uncertainties associated with the economic outlook,
the directors judged that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to
maintain the current stance of policy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pelicans confirm, Policy Accident ahead
VIX - Use Support for IndicationsThe VIX remains Bid.
Large Range - which will trade.
No need to Guess.
Obey.
__________________________________________
22.70 to 23.10 the Support Zone.
No Shortage of MAcro Data and Fed Pelicans to
move this around.
After the 4th largest one-day percentage spike in history
and the 5th Spike this year... the Market undercurrents are
one of danger.
The Range expansion illustrates how desperate the Operators
are to continue the pillaging.
THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER TODAY WILL BE CB CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE.
It will shape the Trend for Today.
With CL weakening, using the 36 - 85 and 42 - 85 Draws for the
Larger Range, the YM Leading along with the NYSE COMP.
The Operators need a Save this week... desperately.
31 remains open on the VIX - 64 to 86 to 126 can open should
it break that APEX and then moves to 38/42.
Anything can happen... it is simply a disaster the FED has engineered
with this latest Credit Cycle.
I do not believe we see anything other than a Large Pullback to Daily
144's to 377s... but, again, anything can occur.
_________________________________________________________
Use the Volaitlty Complexes for Instruments - they are the Leaders.
VIX Daily - 2021 Lows to HighsWhat is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX:
The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although
it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High
On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike
The Prior Spike did NOT.
_________________________________________________________
Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY.
VXN for NQ.
VIX Range for Today 22.30 - 25.15 with 23.40 as the Pivot
*** 22.50 is the LIS.
_________________________________________________________
With Powell speaking late today the Operators will no doubt pull
out the stops to make the Re-Anointed Chair appear Gilded.
Long week ahead as this develops.
Large Gap Below on VIX.
VIX - VXZ Front Month / MonthlyA Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern
for the Bulls.
Delta remains the trade in the VIX.
Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no
Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED.
_________________________________________________________________
The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX.
2021 - 61.44%
2007 - 64.22%
2018 - 115.60%
For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points.
Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier.
__________________________________________________________________
Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below.
Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed.
VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2
____________________________________________________________________
For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal:
Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22.
At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began
selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff.
This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples
will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks
the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's
Financial health.
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an
additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987.
__________________________________________________________________________
Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked
the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk.
Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy.
The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day.
This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History.
The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and
sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd.
They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small
Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages
over large institutions Thesis.
Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing.
Leverage was not an issue then as it is now.
It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them.
_______________________________________________________________________
Will History report?
It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that.
We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where...
Fundamentally Straight down or not at all.
Interesting times indeed.
VX1! S&P 500 VIX Futures continuous contractsNew is always given for the cause of market changes but could the announcement of Jerome Powell vs Lael Brainard decision be a market mover? We will see.
Should this chart play out...a third higher low could spark volatility to increase. I see a 1, 3, 5 pattern forming which can affect the market.
Time & Price reflects a change somewhere near Dec 6th - Jan 18th with the sooner being my target.
Watch for divergence in these products! Also, watch for the 9 count to appear.
VIX - Settle 290 TicksDown form 398 of the prior Settle.
Contango in the Curve remains strong
but coming in 26% Month over Month.
The VIX Range 20.35 is the LIS
19.70 a break.
VIX - (VXX) Settles tomorrow - VXZ @ 96% TomorrowUnfortunately, although the Spread has been cut in half, there will
remain the usual Gap Fill to complete as VIX INDEX (Cash/Spot)
will square Price at the end of tomorrow's Session.
VXX will equal the VIX Index.
_________________________________________________________
Wednesday's will show, surprise, another Gap on the Continuous Contract.
The Gap will be at the 4 PM EST Closing Square Price.
_________________________________________________________
UVXY Fans will not be amused once again. As the UVXY will be front-loaded
in new Decay and perhaps new Lows around 13.89, should 14.46 let go.
This is why the UVXY spends the majority of its time going South.
Unless, of course, there is an Event, then... Katy Bar the Doors.
Katy is a known Degenerate.
_________________________________________________________
Time to trade the VX Complex passed last week, a Retracement did
not develop, although by appearances - it did appear Probable.
Wall Street taketh away.
The One time a Month the Vix can go Vertical came and went.
_________________________________________________________
Where does this leave us?
Where else, defensive with a healthy dose of patience and Cash.
_________________________________________________________
On a Positive note - An accident is very close. China's got Probs,
Bigguns.
Actually the "positive" would be simply a gain in Position Capital.
Positive... yeah, naw. Not at all as, bad arrangements - Este es Muy Mal
por Hente in Todo.
_________________________________________________________
Probability favors a consolidation, but Tuesday has been ALGO Grinder
day for months on end, so we shall see how Yields behave at 8 AM EST
tomorrow, prior to placing any Degenerate Bets @ the Flamingo.
_________________________________________________________
Today behaved as if Price is Consolidating.
For What, Magic 8 Ball suggested - "Ask again later"
VIX - Spread Into Settlement / DEC INDEX Option Structure
The prior 398 Tick Settlement has declined to ~269 Ticks.
__________________________________________________
Daily Low VX Price Objective remains 12.25.
It is difficult to Imagine - A VIX print this Low.
__________________________________________________
December has become a significantly distorted Settlement Month
for Equity Future Contracts
__________________________________________________
ESZ21 - S&P 500 E-Mini (Dec '21)
Implied Volatility: 12.95%
Put Premium Total $422,602.50 (Deep - Out of the Money can Mask Large Decline Potential)
Call Premium Total $10,005,752.50
Put/Call Premium Ratio 0.04 (Extreme Bullish Sentiment)
Put Open Interest Total 771,656
Call Open Interest Total 263,145
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.93 ( Ratio of outstanding positions that need to be set off before or on expiry)
__________________________________________________
Dow Futures Mini Dec '21 (YMZ21)
36,013s +184 (+0.51%)
Put Premium Tota l$3,123,245.00
Call Premium Total $6,532,215.00
Put/Call Premium Ratio0.48
Put Open Interest Total 824
Call Open Interest Total 316
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.61
__________________________________________________
Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Dec '21 (NQZ21)
16,192.75s +170.00 (+1.06%)
Put Premium Total $6,589,153.00
Call Premium Total $30,371,383.00
Put/Call Premium Ratio 0.22
Put Open Interest Total 47,828
Call Open Interest Total 31,758
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.51
__________________________________________________
The Challenge - Who gets paid First, because both will.
