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Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

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VX1! trade ideas

VXF - 1 HourOver 23.60 and the VIX remains in a Bid and a Long. It has become far less technical than the Indexes. Roll to settle is creating an Arbitrage which is suppressing the VXZ VXF VXX. VX Complex collared by the Operators. VXF continues to struggle at Cloud Momentum. ______________________________________________ 4X Expiry and enormous Ranges on each Index. Price is moving into the Lower end of the October Range. DX Weakness may provide the sport for the Equity Complex to produce a Counter-Trend off their Lows. _________________________________________________ We closed : NQ @ 735 ES @ 635 CASH @ 100%
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
VXF - The Blow Monkey2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening. Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into the Close. All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold. Continued Distribution. __________________________________________________________________ With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100% of VXX concentrated in VXF, the horror show begins Wednesday / Thursday - that is 100% certain. Who gets the Hall of Mirrors treatment... Stay Tuned - as the Lower High, until it is confirmed suggests a lower low well below the 4260 for the ES. A higher high and a friendly Pelican with a mouth full of fish means this complete mess could trade up into Mid January, prior to letting go into MARCH. ___________________________________________________________________ VXX - FAILURE IS 21.39 and then confirmed by 21.28 then 20.36. Sound unrealistic? Yeah, I feel ya. VXF 21.10 Price Objective on Pullback... VXF is above within the Chart Frame - Cloud Momentum and Trend have been the RANGE. Expect more complete insanity... expect nothing less. We remain 100% CASH until 230 - 3 PM EST. Should APPL reverse and retest the Highs, the Vomit Comet is my ride. __________________________________________________________________ ALL OR NOTHING for the Operators. Sure would like this to be easier.... it's not. Prefer to enjoy this, I'm not.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
8
VXF - Roll M1/V1 VXZ into next WednesdayThere are complications into next week. In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck. Fail on Drama, apologies _____________________________________________________________________ An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences begin to Form once again on Larger Daily and Weekly Timeframes. Delta is being hedged - simply not in a way most are paying attention to... typical and opportunity. ______________________________________________________________________ I am seeing 2 very distinct patterns within the Delta Squaring. Both create immense Risk of what should be referred to as the Cascade Trade. The over/under will depend on how aggressive the Operators become today, should they be unable to unwilling to support Price today, it is a very large Negative Omen. There exists a Protection Trade well below and not above. ________________________________________________________________________ \We will begin to see which way this breaks shortly - Roll/Settle remains ahead. Within the Pivot, whichever way it breaks ST will reinforce the Trend.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - Below 23.65 / Globex Fun RunIndices continue their Rally. I am posting an analogue for the Indices this morning to demonstrate how similar the RTs are to a recent point in time. We see a large RT during Globex due to the Vix beginning its pullback. ______________________________________ Privately, I was contacted by a number of Traders a few hours before the close - they all now understand why we indicated closing all SELLs and moving to CASH was the proper Trade Plan. Deeply oversold conditions always RT. China kicked the party off over the weekend with relaxed standards for their Banks Chinese RE ETFs had been sold wholesale over the prior 3 weeks. They began to level off Monday - the AX50 and HS also caught support.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
2
VXI - VXZAPEX Key - Protection remains Bid out to January 2022. It can Pullback today or tomorrow. It will depend on whether the Indies begin to converge on Lower POs below, by example, the NQ can drop 300+ Points today... No rush, patience wins here. Entries will be provided. _______________________________________________ Sobering up underway - Rehab T4ades are crushing the Memes. Our dear Ape friends... AMC sub 30, was early on it breaking down but not in doubt. The critical issue is when Oil slows its decline as Food Producers have already put planned prices of 20 to 22.5% in Q1 Food Prices. When this hits... they had best have Trillions to dole out... Or Political unrest is all but assured.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Use Support for IndicationsThe VIX remains Bid. Large Range - which will trade. No need to Guess. Obey. __________________________________________ 22.70 to 23.10 the Support Zone. No Shortage of MAcro Data and Fed Pelicans to move this around. After the 4th largest one-day percentage spike in history and the 5th Spike this year... the Market undercurrents are one of danger. The Range expansion illustrates how desperate the Operators are to continue the pillaging. THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER TODAY WILL BE CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. It will shape the Trend for Today. With CL weakening, using the 36 - 85 and 42 - 85 Draws for the Larger Range, the YM Leading along with the NYSE COMP. The Operators need a Save this week... desperately. 31 remains open on the VIX - 64 to 86 to 126 can open should it break that APEX and then moves to 38/42. Anything can happen... it is simply a disaster the FED has engineered with this latest Credit Cycle. I do not believe we see anything other than a Large Pullback to Daily 144's to 377s... but, again, anything can occur. _________________________________________________________ Use the Volaitlty Complexes for Instruments - they are the Leaders.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
3
VIX Daily - 2021 Lows to HighsWhat is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX: The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike The Prior Spike did NOT. _________________________________________________________ Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY. VXN for NQ. VIX Range for Today 22.30 - 25.15 with 23.40 as the Pivot *** 22.50 is the LIS. _________________________________________________________ With Powell speaking late today the Operators will no doubt pull out the stops to make the Re-Anointed Chair appear Gilded. Long week ahead as this develops. Large Gap Below on VIX.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - VXZ Front Month / MonthlyA Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern for the Bulls. Delta remains the trade in the VIX. Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED. _________________________________________________________________ The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX. 2021 - 61.44% 2007 - 64.22% 2018 - 115.60% For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points. Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier. __________________________________________________________________ Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below. Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed. VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2 ____________________________________________________________________ For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal: Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22. At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff. This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's Financial health. The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. __________________________________________________________________________ Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk. Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy. The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day. This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History. The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd. They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages over large institutions Thesis. Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing. Leverage was not an issue then as it is now. It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them. _______________________________________________________________________ Will History report? It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that. We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where... Fundamentally Straight down or not at all. Interesting times indeed.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
10
VX1! S&P 500 VIX Futures continuous contractsNew is always given for the cause of market changes but could the announcement of Jerome Powell vs Lael Brainard decision be a market mover? We will see. Should this chart play out...a third higher low could spark volatility to increase. I see a 1, 3, 5 pattern forming which can affect the market. Time & Price reflects a change somewhere near Dec 6th - Jan 18th with the sooner being my target. Watch for divergence in these products! Also, watch for the 9 count to appear.
CBOE:VX1!
by curazguy
VIX - (VXX) Settles tomorrow - VXZ @ 96% TomorrowUnfortunately, although the Spread has been cut in half, there will remain the usual Gap Fill to complete as VIX INDEX (Cash/Spot) will square Price at the end of tomorrow's Session. VXX will equal the VIX Index. _________________________________________________________ Wednesday's will show, surprise, another Gap on the Continuous Contract. The Gap will be at the 4 PM EST Closing Square Price. _________________________________________________________ UVXY Fans will not be amused once again. As the UVXY will be front-loaded in new Decay and perhaps new Lows around 13.89, should 14.46 let go. This is why the UVXY spends the majority of its time going South. Unless, of course, there is an Event, then... Katy Bar the Doors. Katy is a known Degenerate. _________________________________________________________ Time to trade the VX Complex passed last week, a Retracement did not develop, although by appearances - it did appear Probable. Wall Street taketh away. The One time a Month the Vix can go Vertical came and went. _________________________________________________________ Where does this leave us? Where else, defensive with a healthy dose of patience and Cash. _________________________________________________________ On a Positive note - An accident is very close. China's got Probs, Bigguns. Actually the "positive" would be simply a gain in Position Capital. Positive... yeah, naw. Not at all as, bad arrangements - Este es Muy Mal por Hente in Todo. _________________________________________________________ Probability favors a consolidation, but Tuesday has been ALGO Grinder day for months on end, so we shall see how Yields behave at 8 AM EST tomorrow, prior to placing any Degenerate Bets @ the Flamingo. _________________________________________________________ Today behaved as if Price is Consolidating. For What, Magic 8 Ball suggested - "Ask again later"
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
15
VIX - Spread Into Settlement / DEC INDEX Option Structure The prior 398 Tick Settlement has declined to ~269 Ticks. __________________________________________________ Daily Low VX Price Objective remains 12.25. It is difficult to Imagine - A VIX print this Low. __________________________________________________ December has become a significantly distorted Settlement Month for Equity Future Contracts __________________________________________________ ESZ21 - S&P 500 E-Mini (Dec '21) Implied Volatility: 12.95% Put Premium Total $422,602.50 (Deep - Out of the Money can Mask Large Decline Potential) Call Premium Total $10,005,752.50 Put/Call Premium Ratio 0.04 (Extreme Bullish Sentiment) Put Open Interest Total 771,656 Call Open Interest Total 263,145 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.93 ( Ratio of outstanding positions that need to be set off before or on expiry) __________________________________________________ Dow Futures Mini Dec '21 (YMZ21) 36,013s +184 (+0.51%) Put Premium Tota l$3,123,245.00 Call Premium Total $6,532,215.00 Put/Call Premium Ratio0.48 Put Open Interest Total 824 Call Open Interest Total 316 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.61 __________________________________________________ Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Dec '21 (NQZ21) 16,192.75s +170.00 (+1.06%) Put Premium Total $6,589,153.00 Call Premium Total $30,371,383.00 Put/Call Premium Ratio 0.22 Put Open Interest Total 47,828 Call Open Interest Total 31,758 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.51 __________________________________________________ The Challenge - Who gets paid First, because both will.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61