VIX - Roll to SettleWe will see increased SELLING in M!/V!. VXX Exit planned for Today's High. Operators are in a Difficult Place as the Unwind is gaining complexity. VX Complex best DEC - JAN for Our Positionsby HK_L61Updated 338
VIX - The most Volatile Day of the WeekToday. Simple. Direct. ___________________________________ Plan for wild Algo Driven Intra-Day whipsaws, buzzsaws and more fun with Jerry. ___________________________________ All but assured.by HK_L61Updated 3311
VIX: 1592 - 1645 Friday's remain unkind to the VX COMPLEX. These are the 2021 Levels to Watch the ATL and the Prior Lows. With VERY LARGE Distortions shaping up in Arbitrage from the clear control patterns formed for Volatility... Danger Lurks. AS the VXN was making a Daily High, NQ was performing the same feat. Caution warranted as this is setting up to Flash Crash - Potentially and why we are Positioning for this event. Tops a processby HK_L61Updated 119
VIX - CC 17.55 remains the Pivot for Reversal. It can/does dip into .618 - .764s prior to reversal. The VIX remains in a downtrend until it breaks. 50% Sells on indexes have traded this AM Session. Resistance treaded First @ out 988 Target for NQ, 16034 remains the upper Boundary - IntraDay. ___________________________________________ Where is Deep Support on the VIX, we'll find out this week.by HK_L61117
VIX - Prior M1 Contract Lows to highs in TradeMind levels for the VIX for October Roll/Settle November has other Ideas taking shape. We are quite likely going to see another VX Incident ahead of November ROLL/SETTLE. The same applies to the VXN... Put Buying is Non-Existent as the deranged chasers are all in on Call BETS. We are positioning in VIX M1/M2 & VXX at Levels. Listing ahead, near capsize. 398 Tick Spread on Settle... comes into Trade. Know how to Trade it... by HK_L617
VIX - Day 190 Curve Contango / VXX / VVIX / UVXYThe VIX Roll Yield was 398 Ticks of Spread on Settlement. It has since come into 336 Ticks VX1/M1 over Spot. The Curve has remained in Contango for the second-longest period since the creation of the Volatility Complex in 2004. 273 Days remains the prior longest Contango Duration. ___________________________________________________ Roll Yield close over 20%, the mean is ~ 8.55%. More than 2X the average. This implies the continuation of the current period of sustained lower Volatility. Intra-Day, compression brought the M1/M2 into Backwardation a few weeks back, on Close, it traded back to Contango. ___________________________________________________ Traders are clearly Trend following, comfortable with the VOL Crush as Vol of Vol (VVIX) traded through 105 tp 102.36. VVIX traded to 100.06 on October 21st during the 15:00 Hourly Bar. The Spread Gap to close for the Continuous Contract has a great deal or room to resolve. 2021 the VX Curve Trend has been Lower, as it was from the ATH made in 2020. A Daily Downtrend with a clearly defined Price Objective @ 12.25. ___________________________________________________ Chasing WaterFalls has paid in the VX Curve as Sellers have seen a continual decline, with few interruptions. ___________________________________________________ The VXX (Constant Rolling 30 Day Maturity) is making new lows. Price will again on NYSE OPEN - IF the Globex Price Levels hold from the O/N Ramp and Camp. 20.75 will be exceeded to the downside. Uber Kink - UVXY - has made another All Time Low @ 15.70 while continuing to Ride the downward slopping Lower Weekly Trend Line. There are a great many "This is It~! (TII) moments in the 1/5X levered UVXY. It has its teeth pulled long ago when the 2X was cut by 33% to current levels of 30 Day - All in Positions on VX which has been systematically Crushed. Positioning for the Big Lick there has been met with "Capital Relief"... ___________________________________________________ For now, AND this is subject to change... Wall Street has the VX complex well contained. How much longer will it last? It will depend, of course, on how the next two weeks unfold through the Meat of EPS. We have the FED and further Taper Talk into early November ___________________________________________________ The VX Complex moves "Out of Balance" - only to be brought back into "Balance" once everyone has begun Whale Watching Portside. Starboard list is approaching. ___________________________________________________ There are a number of concerns building within the Equity Complex, how long will they require to resolve... will depend on how carefully worded Companies reporting temper their "Inflation Warnings." by HK_L612210
VIX - Spread Issue / Friday / Hat TrickThe ES has completed our Price Objective @ 4546 during Globex. It did exceed it by 1 Tick, 2.5 Ticks short of an ATH. The VIX falling back to its 50% can provide a Lift to the ES to new ATHs. With the widespread on VIX Settle, higher remains in the Trade as the continued effort to Lift the Equity Complex and turn the weekly indicators to a BUY is losing momentum... We will be awaiting the reaction at the prior ATHs.by HK_L61226
VIX - November M1 @ 96%This will get interesting as Price begins to resolve the Continuous Contract for the VIX M1/M2. The prior October Range: 14.70 -24.00 As November begins to square Price is within the Window for the potential of the VIX reversing Up @ 9.89% of Settlements. Effectively placing Price in a Desert, a nowhere landscape. The Monthly Trend is quite Clear with a lower-Price Objective @ 12.25. What happens this week will provide further insights into whether 4/5 is complete and 5/5 has begun, or we see something entirely different. Longer-Term TF's favor the Latter for now. We shall see.by HK_L61Updated 4410
VIX - M1 Completing Lower Daily GapsAs M1 continues the Roll to M2 (November) we see the 2 Primary Gaps coming into Range The remaining Gap resides @ 16.20. The VVIX remains stubborn in its FILL into the Corner @ 105. It remains in strength during a period of extreme M1 Weakness. A very good sign, as it indicates out the Curve, there is IMMENSE Support. Institutions are quietly hoovering up the VX Complex Curve, which in turn Supports our Trade Plan for the loss of momentum and roll-over to the 200SMAs. Next Wednesday / Thursday continues to appear as a Pivotal day for this Counter-Trend.by HK_L61Updated 13
VIX - Squaring the Continuous Contract October 20, 2021September Closed the @ 19.71 yesterday, an important Level for the Continuous Contract to Observe, for now, it will change again. CASH/SPOT VIX @ 17.81 this morning. CSH Will Converge to M1 (October) into next Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a Gap in the Continuous Contract as long as the VX Curve remains in Contango - presently the spread is 205 Ticks x 1, the VIX trades @ 5 Ticks. Convergence will provide LIFT for the Indicies during Roll to Settle as we indicated and provide the cover for higher Index Prices in the Equity Complex. Curiously, there is the October 21st Pivot timeframe appearing again... For September, we have the 19.20, 18.60, and 18.20 as Ghost Levels with the larger 16.20 GF and 12.30 as the 5/5 extension low once 5/5 completes for Equity Complex.by HK_L61Updated 339
VIX - Roll Yield ImportanceImportant Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity outline in the prior 2 Posts. We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument.... it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles. Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts ALL Markets. The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become equal in Price @ PAR. Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price. VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2. It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity. I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now. by HK_L61Updated 3312
VIX - M2 Into Settelment (Next Wednesday)Next Wednesday the M2 will "Settle" becoming the Front Month or M1. 100% of the Constant 30 Day Maturity will be concentrated on this Date. Each day thereafter, M1 will begin to flow to M2 (December 2021) at a rate of roughly 3-4% per day, depending on Traading/Calendar Days. When the VIX Curve is in Contango - M2, M3, M4 higher than M1 we will see a Gap left as the Continuous Contract Picks up off the prior Ghost levels of the Prior M1 Contract. Presently the Values out the Curve by Month: DEC 22.60 JAN 23.80 FEB 24.35 We see clear Contango as Prices are higher out the Curve.by HK_L61227
VIX - M1 Roll Begins 2DayThere will be 3 important charts for the VX Curve 1. M1, the Current Contract (October) which will see Rollover begin to execute. 2. M2, the next month forward Contract (November) 3. The Spread or Roll Yield Capture. For the purposes of Settlement next week, we will Observe how CASH/SPOT VIX squares with the settling M1 and Begin to see 100% of M1's Commitments flow to M2.by HK_L61116
VIX - GAP FILLED ON DAILYAll one needs to know. Extreme caution is warranted here. I often do not include the larger Dialy targets for the VIX at the Lower Extensions for Price AFTER 4/5 Completes. 12.30by HK_L6110
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalAs Roll / Settle approaches for the VX M1 - M2 --- they are attempting to fend off the 50/200 cross for the VIX... good luck riggers on the trigger. M2 will appear to have a Gap as the Continuous Contract Squares. Typically we see a front run of Volatility ahead of Roll and things pickup again after settlement as Wednesday to Friday is EOW and decision time. SO much depends on Yields, it cannot be overemphasized. The slightest move there sends Equities lower rather quickly. Methodically but we see how the Equity Complex responded to the small move at a pivotal price. A print of 1.69 and then 1.571 spooked "them" Were we to throw over the 1.63 level, this can simply implode on its own, just as everyone was getting comfy with the Retracement. Tomorrow's macro Data along with next week will be all about the Taper, so the final hour will require a large effort to bring down the 10yr Yield and bring up Equities, ideally, they need to close at or near the highs again... or they are left to Globex. Asia and the EU isn't going to be too keen on bag holding while the cost of borrowing continues to rise.... they need this up, up, up. The CASH/SPOT VIX traded down to 19.07 today prior to Put buyers again bidding the lows. We saw the VIX trade 20.00 - the month's long Pivot... eek, again? It's one enormous magnet for Price time and again. 80 Ticks below is the Gap Fill... just fill it already... get it over with so Price can move on. This is not Retail, it is Hedge Funds, Insts, and Pros who are supporting and adding Protection to offset what they could not unload on the last Dump. We saw the VXN Dip in under 23 to 22.89 and reverse as the 10 Yr Yield began to test 1,57 ~ currently at 1.569. Globex will be required to gain traction again, there is another panic shaping up, one that will catch the Herd completely off guard. The VVIX is behaving as it should... providing a clear warning again of what is ahead. The next 24hours is critical, as this developed we needed to see a few things... they have appeared. There is a very large termor ahead.by HK_L6123239
VIX - Friday RangeAnticipate the Globex Gap Up to return as the VIX tests 22.40s - the Daily Pivot for the VIX. The VIX exceeded its lower Objectives, on the Daily - 22.40 was the Level. The Sell has the potential of providing support to the Indicies as it is Friday. A great deal will depend upon Employment Claims, Flash Services and Manu PMI. In turn, it can pivot at 9:30 AM EST, I am using yesterdays 9:30 Pirce for Pirce @ the NYSE Open. RTH Gaps remain overhead for the Indies. 1/4 to 1/2 Size today. by HK_L61558
VIX - Daily Contract Range ( NQ ES YM )The VIX broke its .500 by 2 Ticks to pull back towards its 22.25 Support Level. VXN, no different, the pullback towards its Support from the Measure move of the GAP to the Highs. The indices will complete their retracement measured moves ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, entirely normal after yesterday's extremely large Volume Sells. We anticipated a Retracement back up ahead of the FOMC. It is normal and useful as the SELL Fills in the DOM await. Price will move to its 200SMA after this retracement is complete. The Die as they say is cast for Lower Prices, as we have indicated the 200SMAs will not hold but create a failure towards the 400SMAs. _________________________________________________________________________ NQ - Daily Range 14807 - 15708 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 15258 15364 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 12754 _________________________________________________________________________ ES - Daily Range 4294 - 1550 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 4421 4452 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 3982 _________________________________________________________________________ YM - Daily Range 33478 - 35548 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 34512 34753 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 28.200 to 31,000 ________________________________________________________________________ Summary Market Structure observations proved to be correct. The Trade Plan was executed and closed successfully. The Markets are weakening and moving to their 200SMAs, we do not anticipate this the level will hold but move lower towards the 400SMAs. Divergences that had been building for several months came to pass. 3x and 4x divergences take time to resolve, we are nowhere near this in time. As this unfolds it will fool a great many who have been trained to BTD. Inexperienced Traders are now touting Dow 37.000. Not going to happen, Price has a great deal of work in a Southerly Range. The Flash Crash began and ended yesterday. It will be back in force again shortly. Creating Lower Lows. We will see where the Backtest attempts to gain its FILL. The trendline or the Gaps above. There is no Gap and Trap, our indicators remain Bearish. Pirce has failed the Momentum Line. The 100 SMAs were tested, for now, the 50SMAs could be backtested with an overthrow. ROC's should return to their respective Centerlines @ 0. Micro Counts completed, a reversal is to be anticipated. _______________________________________________________________________________ Any retracement higher will be met with further and intensifying SELLS. "Buy the Dip" will be crushed again, after this retracement. The VIX remains the Guide. Trade Safe and Prosperous. - HKby HK_L61Updated 12128
VIX - OCT / VIX & VXNFrankly this is all we need to watch, the VIX has consistently been Bid into Settlement only to fall back to LT Support. Will we retest the Highs or come up short and continue the Institutional SELLs. ES - 4451.50 is the Support Level for ES / 3493 - 3498 - 3509 - 3512 - 3521 YM - 34527 Pivot / 34994 Objective NQ - 15388 Pivot for higher and Micro Support We are SOH until 10 AM EST and watching how Macro Data impacts Price levels. It will be all quiet until the FED next Wednesday. The buyers strike was filled on the Squeeze, is there Fuel left? We shall see. DX - DX/JPY - Yields indicate Risk Off remain in trade. Flip a Coin, it will depend on BR / VG / FED and Inst's sitting on Hands for higher levels. *** Our bias remains R I S K OFF at levels for reversals.by HK_L61Updated 14147
VIX - Potential for an Index Squeeze is building - CautionToday will determine as to whether this SELL takes a breather and provides a large retracement for the ES YM RTY and NQ OR Continues Buyers are on Strike, Sellers need to be the new Buyers. VIX Settlement is today - Price has a Gap to Fill Below. We will be waiting for the Range within the Micros and larger Daily Timeframes to resolve prior to entereing. _______________________________________________________________ FED annouced new Coupon Purchase Schedule and we see there is Support once again. SOH Until NYSE open and 10AM Inst Open. Prosperous trading - HK by HK_L61Updated 10108
VIX Futures contracts Here are the vix future contracts from September to may. Interesting to see the expansion in divergence between shorter term and longer term expected volatility, especially the jump between December and January by Yogigolf3
VIX - Market Direction2 full weeks until Expiration / Roll / Settlement The Price patterns have been clear for months. VIX is within a Larger Daily Sell. 12.30 remains the Lower Daily Price Objective. Fridays are difficult for the VIX as BR/VF become sellers against protect being placed to Hedge Equity Positions. Distribution has been ongoing for weeks. There is a great deal to SELL remaining. That said, the Indices "feel" weak. The appetite for Risk seems to be waning... Anything can happen here. watch the VIX closely as the lows let go and it's going to provide a Bid for the ES / RTY / YM. Nq seems to be doing it's own thing - Use the VXN for INV.by HK_L61112
VIX - 2 Tick Front Run of Gap FillCaution warranted on Buy Side as VIX is competing the Lower Boundary Target ahead of the NYSE open. The probability for an Intra-Day reversal is building ahead of RTH. We are buyers of the 18.40 level and below. YM weakest Instrument at present. Our Trade Plan is now within parameters for SELL entries.Shortby HK_L61442
VIX - Complex Gap FIllDELTA DELTA DELTA There remains a Solid Bid for the VIX. 18.60 has been support for M1, it will violate it and fill the lower Gap @ 18.15. The reaction there will be telling. This should occur no later than Friday's close. CASH VIX TARGET 15.50Longby HK_L61113