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Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

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VX1! trade ideas

VIX - Market Direction2 full weeks until Expiration / Roll / Settlement The Price patterns have been clear for months. VIX is within a Larger Daily Sell. 12.30 remains the Lower Daily Price Objective. Fridays are difficult for the VIX as BR/VF become sellers against protect being placed to Hedge Equity Positions. Distribution has been ongoing for weeks. There is a great deal to SELL remaining. That said, the Indices "feel" weak. The appetite for Risk seems to be waning... Anything can happen here. watch the VIX closely as the lows let go and it's going to provide a Bid for the ES / RTY / YM. Nq seems to be doing it's own thing - Use the VXN for INV.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
1
VIX - VJH / Financials / Bonds / Velocity / Scope / ScaleGood Morning - Hope this finds everyone well. The Virtual Jackson Hole Symposium begins a 3 day affair today. _______________________________________________________________________ Bonds Macro Data includes Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30AM EST. Economic Calendar - www.investing.com Bonds out the Curve 10Yr (ZN) - 20Yr (TLT) - 30Yr (ZB) have been pulling back. As we indicated in prior commentary, the ROC (Rate of Change) is seeing increasing Velocity ahead of VJH. The 10Yr is the weakest Instrument. Volatility in Bonds, we anticipate will begin to Increase. Bonds have been the Deposit of Choice, regardless of Real Returns - the Return of Capital as opposed to the return on Capital - this speak volumes as to what is coming. An assured loss in Bonds is axiomatic as Inflation remains well above Real Returns adjusted well beyond the CPI/PII inaccuracy. _______________________________________________________________________ Financials Traditionally, Financials respond well to Positive Rate Adjustments. In prior Macro Observations, we Indicated some time ago, Banks were no longer lending. We began to Observe Banks reducing Lines of Credit (LOCs) and Revolving Credit. Reverse Repurchase Agreements began a change in Term Structure early in 2021, with longer dated terms out to 48 Days, some further duration. As Economic activity is grinding down, Banks were exposed to increased Deposits. Liabilities, which they began to shun, driving increases in Money Markets, which have become Bloated. This is reminiscent of when the Dollar Broke Par during the 2006-2008 Financial Crisis. This one event spooked the Markets, it set off a large Panic. It was not until Janet Yellen and Timothy Geithner arranged for $2 Trillion in Short Dated Treasuries to be authorized, did the DX crisis abate. The Dollar is being hoarded as Fear continues to compound. It is the Senior and Reserve Currency and during crisis, remains the preferred Position. The thinking is simple - Why give the Government my Money as it is assured a loss, the Debt can never be paid back. It can be paid back synthetically - a Tomato would be $1,400.00. _______________________________________________________________________ Volatility Events - Important Events to Market Participants, speed up Market Activity. It expands the Scope and Scale of participation, while having a large and profound effect upon the speed of Trading Activity. Prices become extreme in Intra-Day actions. Yesterday, we observed a large Bid under the Front Month M1 @ the 19.00 level. Protection was being Bid there. During Globex, we saw 18.95 trade, a one tick dip below, this is quite typical as the VX always trades a one Tick move above or below when it is staging. And it is... the Falling Wedge on the Daily has provided 7 Months of Wash Rinse Repeat declines programmed to perfection. The larger Daily Targets for the VIX M1 extend to the 12s. The problem is, they haven't traded below 16... All eyes should be on Volatility as it begins to pick up. As many of you know we have a large VX Position - VXX, VX Curve, VXM, we will continue to build this position into September. We anticipated a Break of Trend for the Globex Tuesday night session. It failed to materialize as Distribution is incomplete, but very close to ending. Last night's GLOBEX Session was a clue, we saw indecision. We are watching the VIX M1 Front Month @ 10:00AM EST for 19.65 as the level to indicate the VIX Curve will be breaking up and out. To be clear, this is NOT the Cash/Spot VIX - the Instrument is the Front Month Futures Contract. ________________________________________________________________________________ Our Position Sells are weighted heavily in TECH and VOLATILITY. We anticipate at least an 11% Correction form the most recent ATHs. It is developing, albeit slowly... this is about to change IMHO. BE well, Happy Hunting. - HK _______________________________________________________________________
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
VIX - Defends with a Front Run on SEP CT - Aggressive BID comingProtection is being bid again in a larger than usual front run of Gap Fills below for the September Contract. Don Jerome Pablo Escobar Gavaria Powell made certain yesterday's close was another barn burner after announcing September would see the taper arrive. Thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking has concluded. All the signs were there, and... ya can't say the BOG @ the FED did not warn as Voting Member after Voting Member made it clear - it is time. And.... Corona Babona is Back Baby! How do you solve the Rental Crisis? With another crisis, of course :) No such luck today it would appear as FEAR is gaining further traction. RTY is leading the decline, ES NQ YM obliging the setup. Hopefully we see one more throw over for additional entries. Macro Data continues to confirm the Global choke hold as Growth is gone going. The Globex Gap down is ripe for continuation. Correction gains in probability as the chasers of the Likes of Tesla, Amazon and Semi-Conductors are being lit up repeatedly. Rarely, if ever, does the BTD and Hubris peak in a level of sheer silliness without cause in horrific Economic Circumstance. The Fanbois were smoked for 7% in 2 days. The APES pray to the Squeeze, the Gamers will need new consoles for the next big things and Nokia will head to $120. "They got a contract on the Moon Bro!" Ok, good luck. We'll take the hard fade on this every time. Enjoy the show.
CBOE:VX2!Long
by HK_L61
3
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the following Positions: VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08 Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06. VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K ______________________________________________________________ SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780 Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780 AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88 GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022 Collar at 195 Strike out through November. __________________________________________________ Financials ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES will catch the head fake for entry. Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket, OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY. Powell - Still Thinking about... *Clarida - Taper could begin later this year Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view *Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September *Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October *Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH. Events: ALL BOG Members voted for/supported: Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021 $1 Trillion CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
VIX - Price Objective Traded for Micros / LONG ApproachingPrice remains in a well controlled descent, although Price has completed a Target for retracement. Retracements have been minor measure moves, 6 failures at each RT. CASH / SPOT VIX has a Daily GAP at 14.80, lower Range is 14.20. The parabolic move off the lows could see 150-200% gains in very short order. We patiently wait for fills at targets with No Positions. A reversal is setting up for an extreme move on the Daily/Weekly TF.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
VIX - VIX.Explosion Setting up perfectlyAs the usual suspects attempt Gamma Squeeze after Gamm Squeeze. Bubbles the Chimp decides to take some off. Participants are backing away, $4 Trillion Jimmy Carnie touted on the "Sidelines" isn't coming into the Equity CONplex. It prefers CASH. TLT needs to close those over head Gaps prior to reversing... or does it. VIX coiling in a falling wedge where Wall Street wants those $0.25 Calls out the curve - simple crush VOL and they are doing so with relative ease.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Into Roll / SettelementTipping the Boat ahead of CT Roll is stock in trade for the VX Complex Options Writers. Position Rolls across the Markets will have a profound effect this as we begin to square. CASH/SPOT VIX shows further complacency as Volumes dry up. RTY and NQ will lead to the downside as "Independent Producers" (SMALL Businesses) will continue to be croaked as they have been since March of 2020 for the RUT 2K. As for Tech, it is facing some large headwinds with respect to the current Rate Revolt and China's heavy hand. Warning Signs abound across the Spectrum, on balance, they are being roundly ignored by the Junior Investor/Trader. A FAT Finger trade is all but assured as Wall Street takes some Bacon off the table as Uncertainty will begin to shake belief structures. Financials theoretically should benefit from rate inking up, the ES and RTY would be positioned to benefit the most due to the large Financial Component structures... theoretically :) ES would likely catch the bid. The issue we have with this basis - Housing has reaches extremes as the Crisis in Real Estate is just beginning to unfold. Law suits are all but assured as the Administration has come under fire from small Independent Producers of Rentier Class profits... they are being squeezed and remain furious with a growing intensity. The Admin is clearly behaving in an Illegal manner in order tp maintain moratoriums on Rents. An Executive Order followed by the CDC's rubber stamp would only further the Crisis and lead to an increasing distrust of Lever Pullers.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - PRCE OBJECTIVES30 /38 / 45 We favor the 40s during the dirty second drop. Algos are working the limits of the Falling Wedge. The VIX-Plosion is dead ahead as resolution is less than two weeks away. The lower compression in Range lows will see a dip-in as often occurs to shake out the weak hands. Cruse Oil should see follow through in the coming weeks. We are beginning to accumulate and reposition our VIX Curve entries and will post them here as they are filled. Bonds are about to reverse throughout the Longer end which continues to Flatten and turn down, indicating a very large contraction in Economic Activity. Divergences are frankly astounding and being ignored by the Chasers, who although ONLY playing in options on balance - are weak hands there as well. Gamma only goes so far this Friday.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Scatter Pattern 11 Days of Ranging ChopThe VIX Complex has been range bound for the prior 11 Sessions. This is typical Summertime behavior, it is not at all unusual. There is a Micro Gap @ 19.70 that was front run last night in the Globex Session - the FR was 1 Tick or .05 @ 19.75. We closed all of our VX Curve Positions yesterday during the Second Attempt at the Highs. We believe the VIX will exit this range and move to 22.50 initially. The reaction there will be telling and instructive. For now, we will patiently wait for the Micro Gap to fill and observe the reaction there as there appears to be an accumulation of SELL positions on the ES / SPY / SPX. The VX Curve has widened to its largest spread since rollover. Cash VIX remains @ 150 in the range of 130-165.
CBOE:VXQ2021Long
by HK_L61
2
VIX V1/M1 @ 22.50 + 1 Tick 22.55 Confirms Index SELLThere is a large accumulation of VX Complex Instruments. A warning sign of higher VX to follow. And with the 10/20/50 in Positive Divergence, all signs point to an initial 10% Correction followed by an additional 9% correction. We anticipate the ES can trade below 3910 and overshoot to the downside 3600-3800 range can trade on overshoot. The Bigger Lick approaches, the Velocity will catch many by surprise. Participation requires strength.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61