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Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) FuturesCboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Futures

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VX1! trade ideas

VIX - Price Objective Traded for Micros / LONG ApproachingPrice remains in a well controlled descent, although Price has completed a Target for retracement. Retracements have been minor measure moves, 6 failures at each RT. CASH / SPOT VIX has a Daily GAP at 14.80, lower Range is 14.20. The parabolic move off the lows could see 150-200% gains in very short order. We patiently wait for fills at targets with No Positions. A reversal is setting up for an extreme move on the Daily/Weekly TF.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
VIX - VIX.Explosion Setting up perfectlyAs the usual suspects attempt Gamma Squeeze after Gamm Squeeze. Bubbles the Chimp decides to take some off. Participants are backing away, $4 Trillion Jimmy Carnie touted on the "Sidelines" isn't coming into the Equity CONplex. It prefers CASH. TLT needs to close those over head Gaps prior to reversing... or does it. VIX coiling in a falling wedge where Wall Street wants those $0.25 Calls out the curve - simple crush VOL and they are doing so with relative ease.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Into Roll / SettelementTipping the Boat ahead of CT Roll is stock in trade for the VX Complex Options Writers. Position Rolls across the Markets will have a profound effect this as we begin to square. CASH/SPOT VIX shows further complacency as Volumes dry up. RTY and NQ will lead to the downside as "Independent Producers" (SMALL Businesses) will continue to be croaked as they have been since March of 2020 for the RUT 2K. As for Tech, it is facing some large headwinds with respect to the current Rate Revolt and China's heavy hand. Warning Signs abound across the Spectrum, on balance, they are being roundly ignored by the Junior Investor/Trader. A FAT Finger trade is all but assured as Wall Street takes some Bacon off the table as Uncertainty will begin to shake belief structures. Financials theoretically should benefit from rate inking up, the ES and RTY would be positioned to benefit the most due to the large Financial Component structures... theoretically :) ES would likely catch the bid. The issue we have with this basis - Housing has reaches extremes as the Crisis in Real Estate is just beginning to unfold. Law suits are all but assured as the Administration has come under fire from small Independent Producers of Rentier Class profits... they are being squeezed and remain furious with a growing intensity. The Admin is clearly behaving in an Illegal manner in order tp maintain moratoriums on Rents. An Executive Order followed by the CDC's rubber stamp would only further the Crisis and lead to an increasing distrust of Lever Pullers.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - PRCE OBJECTIVES30 /38 / 45 We favor the 40s during the dirty second drop. Algos are working the limits of the Falling Wedge. The VIX-Plosion is dead ahead as resolution is less than two weeks away. The lower compression in Range lows will see a dip-in as often occurs to shake out the weak hands. Cruse Oil should see follow through in the coming weeks. We are beginning to accumulate and reposition our VIX Curve entries and will post them here as they are filled. Bonds are about to reverse throughout the Longer end which continues to Flatten and turn down, indicating a very large contraction in Economic Activity. Divergences are frankly astounding and being ignored by the Chasers, who although ONLY playing in options on balance - are weak hands there as well. Gamma only goes so far this Friday.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Scatter Pattern 11 Days of Ranging ChopThe VIX Complex has been range bound for the prior 11 Sessions. This is typical Summertime behavior, it is not at all unusual. There is a Micro Gap @ 19.70 that was front run last night in the Globex Session - the FR was 1 Tick or .05 @ 19.75. We closed all of our VX Curve Positions yesterday during the Second Attempt at the Highs. We believe the VIX will exit this range and move to 22.50 initially. The reaction there will be telling and instructive. For now, we will patiently wait for the Micro Gap to fill and observe the reaction there as there appears to be an accumulation of SELL positions on the ES / SPY / SPX. The VX Curve has widened to its largest spread since rollover. Cash VIX remains @ 150 in the range of 130-165.
CBOE:VXQ2021Long
by HK_L61
2
VIX V1/M1 @ 22.50 + 1 Tick 22.55 Confirms Index SELLThere is a large accumulation of VX Complex Instruments. A warning sign of higher VX to follow. And with the 10/20/50 in Positive Divergence, all signs point to an initial 10% Correction followed by an additional 9% correction. We anticipate the ES can trade below 3910 and overshoot to the downside 3600-3800 range can trade on overshoot. The Bigger Lick approaches, the Velocity will catch many by surprise. Participation requires strength.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Delta "Change" - 22.50 Level with Negative Roll YieldVIX will move higher as Indices will front run their .382s Negative Roll Yields are always a warning, we alerted traders to this Important Condition on Settlement as V2/M2 exceeded V1/M1 by 8%. 22.50 is the level to watch for a breakout higher. August is a Negative time for the Indices. We maintain large Sell to Opens in AMZN, TSLA, TQQQ, NQ, ES, RTY, MNQ, MES, M2K We Bought to Open SQQQ & VVX. We sold 11 SPDR ETFS with the larges Bias to Consumer Discretionary as we indicated Demand has peaked. The A50 is a clear warning sign as we indicated last week.
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
VIX - Time Decay for the VIX STR and HYPER BUBBLE EnteriesS&P VIX STR Index will continue roll to V2/M2 as the constant 30 Day rolling Index weightings between V1/M1 & V2/M2. As a consequence, 82% of the time the VX Futures see time decay close the Roll Yield. Roll Yield is calculated by the spread between V1/M! & V2/M2 as a percentage. The average is roughly 8%, over this percentage an we see Price tend towards a decay of Price through time into the next Rollover. On April 19th CASH VIX Closed @ 22.50 - the VXQ closed @ 21.45 * A LARGE TELL: The Negative Roll Yield :) The value of ETPs are all calculated from the 30 Day Constant. All derivatives: VXX, UVXY, SVXY are calculated using this formula. Price can change at any time, it is important to remember this - there is a clear percentage of the time when the VIX can move far higher. The trick is to determine when the probability favors this move.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Daily remain in a Sell, althoughThere is a great deal to be concerned about speaking broadly. Price erased 35 days of gains quickly - the first warning. Asia continues to absorb Dollars at a higher than usual rate. We have a very Large Lick setting up in VX Complex, one that will provide extremely large gains into August and through October. VXQ - 1975 1955 1935 1920 1895 are the levels to watch. The draw is from the 2 prior Contract lows to highs. July has broken its Long - 12.30 to 15.50 remain the entry zone, unless we see signs of 18.60 providing support. We believe it will.
CBOE:VXQ2021Long
by HK_L61
VIX Cash to VIX M1Cash moving up ahead of Expiration next Tuesday/Wednesday into Settlement. Approaching window for larger retracement 21-22 July. Interesting times in VX Complex. Tomorrow is OPEX, it is important to note that weekly patters for ES YM NQ have been fairly consistent throughout Summer Trading. 2 patters have been trading BID Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Globex Bid Thursday into Sell through Friday. SELL Sunday, - Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - Pre-Market Glovex Bid into Friday Close.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
July VX Futures Rollover: M1 / August M2 to August M1 Roll YieldJuly Protection for Volatility was taken up to Sell M1 as we begin to see M2 (August) uptake 100% of the VXX M1+M2. Settlement will have, at minimum 98% front loaded into August M1. There will be the ever present Gap to close as there is every month. As the CASH VIX and July Contract converge for settlement, the Indices should range. We are looking for 12.30s to 15.50 as the Buy to Open range, but will adjust as necessary should the range fail. We are in the middle of Summer with a number of important Events setting up. Anticipating a large reaction to the undercurrent of RISKS. The VX Complex is the primary guidance for our setups and positions. We are approaching settlement - Thursday, Friday and the following Monday will provide a clear Trend for the short term. We anticipate a large decline in August through October. A Trade Plan is required as there are enormous "what if's" ever-present.
CBOE:VXN2021Short
by HK_L61
VX Complex - Contango RemainsThe VX complex has targets at in the Range of 12.30 on the larger Daily. A Compression Range remains 13.35 to 15.51, where Price can be volatile IntraDay. The CASH VIX has put in 3 tests of Support @ 14.20. The Volatility Complex is setting up a large move to 106.12 - it will likely come in steps, albeit rapidly. VXQ is posted above, the Sept. 2021 CT. The Algos will certainly attempt to confuse Traders around Roll/Settlement as there is always a Gap left as M1 Future and CASH VIX Converge. September is likely the Best month for positioning, the important position Sizing can be achieved using the Continuous Contract for the VXM or Micro VX Contract. This affords traders the ability to spread in Ladders for safety and improved cost averaging. The SPXU will provide excellent opportunities as well and should be timed for entry as M1 on the VX Futures begins to Roll Yield to M2. Presently SPXU appears to be targeting 16.56 and then 15.83, ideally we would like to see 13.96 - this appears unlikely at the moment, but would be a indicative of an enormous Blow Off in the ES. It does not however correlate to the VX Front Month Futures Low Targets. It will depend on how quickly they convert Roll Yield. Stay Frosty Traders, a very nice trade is setting up in Volatility. Be Blessed.
CBOE:VXQ2021
by HK_L61