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Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) FuturesMini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) FuturesMini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

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VXM1! trade ideas

Another VX BreakoutVX was awfully weak this morning, but it never broke below the 21ish area it had launched from last Friday. At the same time VX was holding support, ES filled its gap from Sunday evening, which led to a sharp drop and a spike on VX. Now ES has erased the entire move and turned red on the session. It broke back below 5330 and kept going below 5300 as well. 5300 has been broken by a significant amount now. VX broke its downtrend and is headed back for a test of the high from Tuesday. Critical test here, I think things are right on the edge still. Not sure what's going to happen, I really have no idea.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
The VX Explosion is Just BeginningHere's a 4hr chart for VX. We can see VX just broke out above a major downtrend dating back to highs in October of 2023. So far, VX has stalled at the April highs around 22.50. I have a few scenarios I am planning for, but it's really all about this major downtrend breakout and some key horizontal support and resistance levels for me. BTC is looking rough along with the weekend dow, but we'll see how futures open later this evening and it can of course completely change by the time NYSE opens in the morning. If VX continues above the April high on Monday, I'll be looking for it to hold on any retests, if it can't do that, bulls may have some relief. Next area above is an important low dating back to September of 2023 at 26. I'd expect VX to fail there at least briefly, and that could be the top for this run as well. If it does not stop there, I think we can almost confirm that a new major leg has started, but for not it is still on the edge in my opinion. Looking rough though. If VX fails to break above April highs tomorrow, maybe bulls will see some relief and we might have a short squeeze. I'm currently bearish as can be as many of you know, but VX is everything. If VX does not sustain this move, this dump will be short lived.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
FOMC Trade Plans for ES/SPYLooks like we may be setting up for a volatile FOMC. My first though is to think that it will be a sell the news event when the Fed confirms a 25 point cut will be coming in September, but I'll stick to the charts. VX is always the most critical thing when it comes to FOMC, there will be a lot of volatility and whipsaw action and it's easy to get faked out. If you use VX, you can better determine if the moves are real or not. I'll be looking for setups where VX hits resistance as ES hits support, or where ES hits resistance and VX hits support. I think the ideal scenario and easiest to trade would be if ES could fall down to 5525 quickly as VX spikes into resistance around 16.185. I'd be looking for longs there and quickly stop if ES does break below 5525. If VX can keep going up past 17 and even above the trendline, I'd say look out below. If VX spikes up to the trendline while ES hits support, it may be a good long. And finally, if ES rockets and VX goes all the way down to the 15 area and trendline support, it may be a good spot to short ES/SPY. Trading FOMC is risky and I don't recommend if you do not have experience doing so. Even if you do have experience, it's not the smartest thing to do. I usually use smaller size, but I do like to trade it if the opportunities present themselves.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Falling WedgesThe volatility crush we have seen lately isn't quite like anything I've seen before. The market is in risk on mode and has been all year. VX is sitting at all time lows at the moment, but has recently broken out above a falling wedge, and then another after that. Each breakout has been short lived and VX tends to always collapse shortly after any rallies in this market. Negative data is shrugged off immediately and any dips are bought. This is the major pattern and until it changes, shorts are not going to work. This is the third wedge in a row which is why I decided to post this idea because I find it interesting. We have a potential catalyst tomorrow as well, but it appears the market is not worried about it and usually that means nothing bad will happen. However, if PCE does come in unexpectedly hot while VX is at all time lows and no one is hedged, it could be catastrophic. I don't have any expectations for now, just waiting to see. VX will be key in determining if any sell offs that occur have legs or not. If it breaks above this wedge and takes out previous highs I'd say look out below. Otherwise, we may just keep rallying all summer long, which is typical for July and August.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Bull FlagsThis is an interesting chart here on VX. We have a series of falling wedges/bull flags. We have the longer term falling wedge and then the previous shorter term bull flag that led to a small breakout before eventually falling back down. Now we are seeing yet another bull flag/falling wedge, third in a row now. VX bottomed today at the bottom end of the current wedge and near all time lows. I've been waiting for a significant VX breakout for weeks now, but it just hasn't happened. VX is being crushed over and over, but when the time comes it will breakout eventually. Hard to time, it has been failing almost immediately after every rally. We'll have to wait and see if this time is any different. I think if VX finally goes and NQ remains below 20k along with some more NVDA weakness, we'll see a big correction. Otherwise VX is just gonna keep decaying and the grind up will continue.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
VX BreakoutI've posted a few ideas on VX, mostly focusing on a falling wedge from the top in April, but there's another wedge on a smaller time frame shown here. VX has broken above both the longer term and shorter term wedges. I would say this is a pretty large divergence, because ES and NQ are making new all time highs every day, but VX is showing strength. VX has failed to show any strength since April, so it seems quite odd to me that it's gaining strength as we rally. Highly suspicious in my opinion, will be an important watch moving forward.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Market Crash - VX Falling WedgeVX is near all time lows and normally I would say that means shorts should be avoided. That's normally how it goes, but it obviously does rally at times, it's just very weak since early 2023. It is usually against me rules to place any trades if VX does not confirm my bias. This has been the most tricky part for me when it comes to my market crash prediction. We should be seeing some signs of new strength for VX if a crash is actually coming. Instead, VX continues to immediately roll over shortly after every pop and seems to always end up back at all time lows in short order. While all the recent action is looking bearish for VX in my view, we still have this major falling wedge pattern, and if it ends up being valid and causing a breakout, the move should be substantial and last a while. There's a big difference between a simple correction and a crash like I'm talking about now. Believe it or not, I shorted the top in 2022. I expected a correction, I did not have doomsday thoughts and fears. This time I do. I'm serious about this and it's why I'm sharing. My point there is that VX will spike at some point and there will be a pullback, even if it takes years. When that breakout occurs, it still has key areas to break above in order to cause a full blown crash. The first level I want to see it take out is $21.65, then the 2023 high around $30. If it stops there, not much a crash will be had, but that would obviously cause significant downside, but no global financial collapse like I'm predicting. I need to see it take out $30 and return to the 2022 highs, at that point it would be a lot more reasonable to say there's a crash underway.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Small Account Challenge Day 18 - Silver SqueezeAnother rough day in the challenge and another unacceptably large loss. Gotta refocus here, got my face ripped off by silver and shouldn't really have been trading such a risky ticker in this account. Especially when talking about shorting something while it is in the middle of a short squeeze. Still feeling good about my trading lately, just got a little complacent with my position sizing. I have no clue what the market is doing right now. I usually have a solid thesis I at least somewhat believe in. I have many thoughts about what could happen if we up or down, but I don't know which it is. I've still been making good money lately and that's why I always say "You don't need to know where the market is headed next to make money"
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays