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Mini Cboe Volatility Index (VXM) Futures

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VXM1! trade ideas

Market Crash - VX Falling WedgeVX is near all time lows and normally I would say that means shorts should be avoided. That's normally how it goes, but it obviously does rally at times, it's just very weak since early 2023. It is usually against me rules to place any trades if VX does not confirm my bias. This has been the most tricky part for me when it comes to my market crash prediction. We should be seeing some signs of new strength for VX if a crash is actually coming. Instead, VX continues to immediately roll over shortly after every pop and seems to always end up back at all time lows in short order. While all the recent action is looking bearish for VX in my view, we still have this major falling wedge pattern, and if it ends up being valid and causing a breakout, the move should be substantial and last a while. There's a big difference between a simple correction and a crash like I'm talking about now. Believe it or not, I shorted the top in 2022. I expected a correction, I did not have doomsday thoughts and fears. This time I do. I'm serious about this and it's why I'm sharing. My point there is that VX will spike at some point and there will be a pullback, even if it takes years. When that breakout occurs, it still has key areas to break above in order to cause a full blown crash. The first level I want to see it take out is $21.65, then the 2023 high around $30. If it stops there, not much a crash will be had, but that would obviously cause significant downside, but no global financial collapse like I'm predicting. I need to see it take out $30 and return to the 2022 highs, at that point it would be a lot more reasonable to say there's a crash underway.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Small Account Challenge Day 18 - Silver SqueezeAnother rough day in the challenge and another unacceptably large loss. Gotta refocus here, got my face ripped off by silver and shouldn't really have been trading such a risky ticker in this account. Especially when talking about shorting something while it is in the middle of a short squeeze. Still feeling good about my trading lately, just got a little complacent with my position sizing. I have no clue what the market is doing right now. I usually have a solid thesis I at least somewhat believe in. I have many thoughts about what could happen if we up or down, but I don't know which it is. I've still been making good money lately and that's why I always say "You don't need to know where the market is headed next to make money"
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX1 (May) - Play long on PPI and CPITrade from 13th May (Mon) - 15th May (Wed) UX1 has been compressed very low thru out this week (and very quiet) before key eco data next week. Model indicate that there is a Long VIX coming during the eco release. Hence win-lose odd ratio is in favor of long Entry price reference: 13.55 or lower UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.4 - 15 (spread 0.2 - 0.9) Stop loss: Wait until PPI release at least, set around 13.1 lowest Profit take: 15 (or higher if PPI and CPI came slightly hotter than expected)
CBOE:VXK2024Long
by Vixbot
VX Analysis and Trade IdeasAll of my trade setups will always depend on VX. It had been extremely weak since the market bottomed in April, but it was strong today and that put a lot of pressure on ES. VX rejected at the 13.85 level in had been watching. This is the make or break level for the short term IMO. If it's strong again tomorrow I'll be looking for puts on SPY/QQQ, but if it continues down after rejecting 13.85 I'll trade with a bullish bias. We have PPI and Powell in the morning along with CPI on Wednesday so monitoring VX will be critical to determine where ES might head next.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Stair Step DownThis is kind of a messy looking chart, I don't usually like to have this many lines. What I'm trying to illustrate is that VX has been slowly stair stepping down in a pretty controlled manner. I was surprised to see this morning's rally fail with VX doing this, but there is just no momentum or volume this week. Not sure what to make of all of it. The low volume grind up on ES tells me the end is near, but VX is saying to long. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
CBOE:VX1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
VX WeaknessThere's a lot of bears out there right now calling for a crash, and I thought we'd have continued downside as well after seeing VX break out of its major downtrend it has been in since 2022. However, in classic fashion VX hard failed within a few days and ES has already recovered a lot of the losses within a few weeks. VX has continued to weaken since the market bottomed. There will be no sell off unless VX becomes strong again, it's just a fact. I'll need to see VX above 14.45 to consider being bearish now. I expect all rallies on it to be sold until it breaks this downtrend. Zoom out for longer term levels and trends.
CBOE:VX1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
This is why the markets will not crash in the near futureFirst things first: This is about the longer-term direction of the market. We're not advising against short positions here. In the short and medium term, they can lead to significant profits. However, given the seemingly fragile nature of the current markets, I'd like to point out the COT (Commitment of Traders) data and the corresponding levels in the Volatility Index (VIX). Here we have a weekly chart. The blue line represents the positions of the Commercials in the VIX. We can see that this line reached significant peaks just before the markets collapsed significantly, by 15% or more. Particularly notable are the extreme levels in November 2019, just weeks before the markets collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Often, the net long positions of the Commercials rise to these extreme levels, and the decline in stock indices occurs several weeks, sometimes a few months later. What does this mean for the current situation? Looking at the net long positions of the Commercials in the VIX, we can see that we are very, very far from extreme levels that would make a significant downturn likely. Therefore, it remains true: The Trend is Your Friend. And the trend continues to point upwards.
CBOE:VX1!
by Ochlokrat
VIX (MARCH) --> Friday overshoot?Trade for 11th March (Mon) - 12th March (Tue) UX1 went a bit of overshoot with Tech sold off, which also influenced by the weekly Option expiration (rather than Non-farm). However, there is no indication on fear in the market. Our model suggested it will still go compressing till Tuesday (post CPI data) Entry price reference: 15.2 or higher (this is not at Open) UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 14.5 - 16 (spread 0.7 - 1) Stop loss: 15.7 post CPI data release on Tuesday Profit take: 14.5
CBOE:VX1!Short
by Vixbot
VIX (MARCH) --> In defense mode now?Trade for 4th March (Mon) - 5th March (Tue) With such a hot market in place (still very strong momentum), even though spot vs UX1 has built a big gap on friday and in long run there is no sign of "fear" yet. However the contradict move for UX1 March on Friday indicate a long VIX model signal. Entry price reference: 14.05 or lower UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.8 - 14.5 (spread 0.95 - 1.01) Stop loss: 13.8 (30 mins post US open, basically to avoid a big compression) Profit take: 14.35 (or let it run if VIX surged)
CBOE:VX1!Long
by Vixbot
VIX (MARCH) --> Thurs down, Fri expecting to go up againWith PPI data release on Friday (again.. there may be a surprise as like Wednesday CPI). Model is expecting a surge on UX1 (March future). Entry point: 14.95 or lower (watch for how Market goes on Thursday and Friday APAC/EU morning session) Profit take: 90bps from Entry or 15.8 (whichever hit). In particular if PPI is much hotter than expected (est. 0.1% on Core PPI), then let it run further till where VVIX has hit the upper bound (use BB 20 EMA, Daily, 1 year window) Stop loss: 14.7 (about 25bps below entry) post PPI release
CBOE:VX1!Long
by Vixbot
VIX (FEB or MARCH) --> still indicating to go upTrade for 12th Feb 2024 - 13th Feb 2024 (Mon and Tues) With CPI data release on Tuesday, SPX is just slightly above the 5000 threshold (subject to how long it is able to hold) and SPX Monthly Option expiration on Friday. Model is very committed with a long vix signal which led an average lift of 50+ basis pt Any "bad" CPI data point higher than expected could trigger a negative reaction to the market Entry price reference: 13.35 and lower (for Feb Future) OR 14.7 and lower (for March Future) UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.1 - 14 (for Feb Future) OR 14.4 - 15.2 (for March Future) Stop loss: 13.1 for Feb OR 14.4 for March (use 30 mins post US Open) Profit take: 14 for Feb, 15.2 for March (anytime thru out the day)
CBOE:VXG2024Long
by Vixbot