VXM1! trade ideas
VIX - Settlement Range for Continuous Contract The VIX has Gpas slightly below into the 29s on the 15-minute chart.
Breaking 30 would create an immediate dump.
Friday will provide a tell for the CT for the Indies.
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The VX Curve remains in Backwardation will beyond M2/V2.
VIXWhen the Vix trades its supports, it rallies and the Indices decline.
They never make it to Full Resistance.
Never.
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The ARB is to use the PCC over 1.28 to 1,35 for countertrend squeeze.
A trader who continues to project a bottom... persists in being incorrect.
Bottom Callers have been chumps time and again.
Inexperience - yeah, this time it is different, eh?
VIX - Daily Front Month FuturesA Pullback to the support zone, 26.00 should be observed for a reaction.
The 2022 50% is the Key Over/Under.
Consolidation PB is underway ahead of EPS.
26.00 is the PO
31.20 is the extension on reversal and back to the larger trend.
Vx1! Watching trend lineWatching Vix to see if it holds the line and or bounces if not back to 16 we go
Playing Spxl and or HUV
VIX - Daily - Larger Measured MoveDisappointing the VIX was unable to break up and out on a surrender move
for the Indices.
Lower Price Objectives will continue over time for the near term with minor
retracements.
VVIX is showing a PO @ 103s.
The VX Curve is attempting to flatten somewhat. with the Indicies approaching
extreme overbought readings - VX could pick up Short Term.
VIX - DailyBy the Numbers - VIX indicates a potential Index Pullback approaching either Today or tomorrow.
IT is currently sitting on 2022 Support.
Protection is absent across the Equity Complex, an ominous sign once again.
ES NQ YM RTY - Sell Indies @ VIX April 30.50Option squeeze on Delta for Puts.
Selling the Futures against the VOX Pullback to PO.
New Lower Lows ahead.
front month vix futures remain overbought (vx1!)the upside in short term vix futures remains muted as limitations on how far out broader market shorts in the money puts are due to backwardation in front month contracts. this is leading to derivatives like UVXY to probably continue to sell off of overbought.
we could find ourselves back in the low 14s UVXY if we see 22 vix again which should be soon. if we go over 28 vix id imagine were headed for 20 UVXY. the weekly picture for vix is bearish.
VX2!-VX1! (VIX in Backwardation?)Much better to panic early than late.
The VX1-VX2 spread helps you define when market participants are starting to panic. The backwardation / reversal is a sign that market participants are starting to panic. In this sense we can use it as a risk mitigation tool, including the distributions of returns for the stock market and the volatility when futures are in backwardation and when they are not.
VXG - Roll/Settle / Sleep to DreamSimply observe VVIX or Vol of Vol.
VXG is being Rolled Early, see Volumes.
Anticipate the usual Gamm to Delta Trade
into LAter Settlement.
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Keep it simple.
VIX - Daily Range for Continuous ContractGiven the VX Complex has asserted a Positive Weekly Trend for the First
time since the Roswell Crash (4/5 LT Structure) - the ST Structure indicates
more to come for IT 4/5.
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% Contango
M1 @ 3.66%
M2 @ 1.74%
M3 @ 0.78%
M4 @ 0.12%
M5 @ 1.51%
M6 @ -0.38%
M7 @ 0.57%
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As long as the 50 SMA is holding on both the Daily, but far more importantly
on the Hourly - the VXG has game into ROll/Settle.
New highs should remain the Trade into March.
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VVIX has performed extremely well for VX Leading Indications.
VIX - VXG Daily 2021 Weekly Trend extends to 2022That TRend is Higher into March.
How it unfolds, is a matter of interest to everyone with Skin
in the Game at the Flamingo.
Given VX Crush Friday is here, we see how the day unfolds.
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It is usually after the EU Session closes the VX COmplex assault begins
and accelerates into the Close.
Yields will wreck the MArkets again as ZN appears to be heading to
new lows.
It will be extremely VOLATILE into March with wild swings in both directions.
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VVIX has been a great leading Indicator.
VIX - Time to Pay AttentionVX will lead the ES around the balance of the Week.
It will be the Key to the 4510 Break for the ES.
Simple.
VIX - VXG / VVXX / VVIXThe Volatility Complex has been on a Wild Ride filling overhead Gaps and remaining
in Trend.
Super Bubbles taking time out - provide immense Lift for the VX Complex when the
Operators take their foot off its throat, which they did to counter Super Leap Week
whereby everything was put on Sale.
Or
You could always watch your neck of the woods...
app.capitoltrades.com
You'll notice Apple is Congressional Grifters easy money... GOOG
MSFT NVDA FB AMZN AMD QCOM
Oh, and there are some VIX Speculators on the HIll.
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711s a Fan Favorite across the isles... must be something to do with those contributions.
And ht Sei feeding trough - where bill after bill is going to be proposed...
VIX - Daily VXGThe Buy Setup Bud for the VIX on a Friday is an interesting one.
VXG has defended its Bid.
It is wedging out.
Support appears to lead to a Break above with the PO @ 36.65.
this would put the ES down around 4070ish.
Ouch.
It's Eff You Friday...
VIX - Daily VXG Settlement for VIX today.
VXF moves to CC VXG.
VIV Index 22.79
VXF Settle 22.625
VXG Settle 24.475
185 Ticks of Roll Yield.
VIX - 22.50 Pivot - 2 Ticks Higher from Prior Week 22.40The VIX is inside its Intea-Day Uptrend.
The ES is inside ita Intra-Day downtrend.
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Countertrends will move price to the VIX
squeeze providing a Lower Low for the Indies.
8 AM Bond Open will provide some clues.
Vix Support is 19.70
4645.25 and 4638.75 remains the Micro Support
for the ES.
4691.74 remains overhead MIcro Resistance when
correlating the VVF.
The range for NQ Expands from 15410 to 157544.
VX - M1/V1 : M2/V2 DailyThe VIX Guy, 50 Cents isn't present.
Implied VX is SKY HIGH.
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The Illusion continues to Live.
A great many are going to pay the Price for
being dead-ass wrong.
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I'm going to be as Subjective as the mood suits today.
QE Breeds Instability
Conditions under QE - the substantive change may actually
be relatively minor, but this is irrelevant to speculators and
Degenerate Gamblers at the Flamingo Sports Book.
The reason, simple: Speculators with assets in the Bag with
longer maturities will take larger capital losses with relatively
small changes in interest rates under prevailing Confidence.
Projecting my inner monologue is something I attempt to
avoid on balance - Shake Rattle and Roll on FOMC minutes
is how I'm setting up for a Deline.
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Something very serious is about to happen, can't shake it.
We will be SELLERs, win lose or draw. Scalps the Micro Ranges
with a SKEW at extremes.
There you have it... Alex and I are Salmon Fishing.
Have a great rest of the Weekend.
Happy Hunting - Hunter Killer
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH Reversal / VXFWe will see how low this can be shoved lowered.
A Counter-Trend is possible, but the MIcros have held
for the continued Down Trend.
Far lower Targets Exist on the Daily TF.
VXF - Daily into 2022Volatility remains compressed with a slow and steady move lower
on declining volumes.
Protection is being bid at levels out the VX Curve at levels for
February and March Expiries.
It appears the Operators are beginning to Position ahead of the
FOMC Meeting - January 25-26 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
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Price Objectives for JAN VX (VXF) - 19.85 / 19.30 and the largest
2021 Daily extensions @ 15.20 & 12.30 for a Full extension.
In the Chart above observe the prior two Highs with successive lower
lows as VX Expanded into the end of 2021.
Clear A / B / C patterns with the current move lower building "C".
TIme indicates this move lower in VX Complex may continue into
the first week in January.
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The VX Curve remains in Contango (M1 - M4) Term Structure
JAN - 20.80 @ 9.86%
FEB - 22.85 @ 5.78%
MAR - 24.17 @ 4.14%
APR - 25.17 @ 1.71%
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October / November / December Roll to Settle arrived with Lows.
The break of the 2021 50% implies there are Higher Highs ahead, from
where is Time-Dependent - we can see the 3 Drives to a Low present prior
to large reversals.
By TIME - the same pattern suggests a Low for VX in early January.
For Price - a Higher low by approximately 100 BPS.
Unfortunately - there is a Large Daily Gap @ 17.35 for VFX for the
Continuous Contract to Fill.
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We remain patient for the Lower FIll and will wait for entry.
