VIX - Daily VXG Settlement for VIX today. VXF moves to CC VXG. VIV Index 22.79 VXF Settle 22.625 VXG Settle 24.475 185 Ticks of Roll Yield. by HK_L617
VIX - 22.50 Pivot - 2 Ticks Higher from Prior Week 22.40The VIX is inside its Intea-Day Uptrend. The ES is inside ita Intra-Day downtrend. ___________________________________ Countertrends will move price to the VIX squeeze providing a Lower Low for the Indies. 8 AM Bond Open will provide some clues. Vix Support is 19.70 4645.25 and 4638.75 remains the Micro Support for the ES. 4691.74 remains overhead MIcro Resistance when correlating the VVF. The range for NQ Expands from 15410 to 157544. by HK_L6112
VX - M1/V1 : M2/V2 DailyThe VIX Guy, 50 Cents isn't present. Implied VX is SKY HIGH. __________________________________ The Illusion continues to Live. A great many are going to pay the Price for being dead-ass wrong. __________________________________ I'm going to be as Subjective as the mood suits today. QE Breeds Instability Conditions under QE - the substantive change may actually be relatively minor, but this is irrelevant to speculators and Degenerate Gamblers at the Flamingo Sports Book. The reason, simple: Speculators with assets in the Bag with longer maturities will take larger capital losses with relatively small changes in interest rates under prevailing Confidence. Projecting my inner monologue is something I attempt to avoid on balance - Shake Rattle and Roll on FOMC minutes is how I'm setting up for a Deline. ______________________________________ Something very serious is about to happen, can't shake it. We will be SELLERs, win lose or draw. Scalps the Micro Ranges with a SKEW at extremes. There you have it... Alex and I are Salmon Fishing. Have a great rest of the Weekend. Happy Hunting - Hunter Killer by HK_L61Updated 7
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH Reversal / VXFWe will see how low this can be shoved lowered. A Counter-Trend is possible, but the MIcros have held for the continued Down Trend. Far lower Targets Exist on the Daily TF.by HK_L61Updated 117
VXF - Daily into 2022Volatility remains compressed with a slow and steady move lower on declining volumes. Protection is being bid at levels out the VX Curve at levels for February and March Expiries. It appears the Operators are beginning to Position ahead of the FOMC Meeting - January 25-26 (Tuesday-Wednesday). _________________________________________________________ Price Objectives for JAN VX (VXF) - 19.85 / 19.30 and the largest 2021 Daily extensions @ 15.20 & 12.30 for a Full extension. In the Chart above observe the prior two Highs with successive lower lows as VX Expanded into the end of 2021. Clear A / B / C patterns with the current move lower building "C". TIme indicates this move lower in VX Complex may continue into the first week in January. __________________________________________________________ The VX Curve remains in Contango (M1 - M4) Term Structure JAN - 20.80 @ 9.86% FEB - 22.85 @ 5.78% MAR - 24.17 @ 4.14% APR - 25.17 @ 1.71% ___________________________________________________________ October / November / December Roll to Settle arrived with Lows. The break of the 2021 50% implies there are Higher Highs ahead, from where is Time-Dependent - we can see the 3 Drives to a Low present prior to large reversals. By TIME - the same pattern suggests a Low for VX in early January. For Price - a Higher low by approximately 100 BPS. Unfortunately - there is a Large Daily Gap @ 17.35 for VFX for the Continuous Contract to Fill. __________________________________________________________ We remain patient for the Lower FIll and will wait for entry. by HK_L61117
VXF - M1/V1 VIXVX Complex has a bit more work to do to the Lower end of the Range. Year-End it is quite easy for the ALGOs to compress the Range into a Full Retracement after continued failures to move and close above the .618 @ 22.90. There remains a concerted effort to continue the compression leading the ES YM RTY to a Lift. Of concern for January, China is amassing Commodities in amounts unseen before and moving quickly to become as Food Independent and free of all imports Net of Feed Stocks. Soybeans were replaced with Corn for the Season, which is somewhat curious, as Feeder Inputs appears to be a better decision for Livestock. The CCP has been on a tear to reduce all Foreign Dependence, in excess of 84% of all Food Stuffs have been secured internally. ______________________________________________________________ It appears China is hoarding consumables and Food Stuffs. Commods should be watched closely into 2022 as actions taken by China do not occur in a vacuum. _______________________________________________________________ VX Compression was noted last week in a commentary and Chart which showed the Lower Price Objective and Compression. The Divergence within is of concern as when compression ends - This is when we see the VIX move higher, significantly higher. by HK_L617
VXF - Daily / DivergenceStealth Accumulation. AO showing signs of Indecision. Next few Sessions - RT. ____________________________ 8:30 AM EST provides the Direction. Bonds Falling again.by HK_L61997
VIX - Settlement Range for Continuous ContractSpot Vix - 22.05 VXZ - 21.45 VXF - 23.70 _________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow the New Continuous Contact for the VIX will begin trading. To project Price we need to consider the VXZ / VXF Spread (Roll Yield) and use Draws for both months to determine the Point of Convergence for Price based upon Draws for both Contracts. The VXF Chart above provides the Price Objectives and lower Gap FIlls. The VIX has been trending down for some time now and may continue the trend into year-end. Clearly, this gives the ES YM RTY room to move higher. __________________________________________________________________ We indicated yesterday the RT Potential and Price Objectives above into the Gap Fills as the Lower POs were front-run by a significant Margin. The NQ kept the 615 pivot gyrating until it moved tp and through it during the 3 PM EST to 4 PM EST Hourly Bar. In the final Hour, the NQ would trade below the 615 Pivot for the last time. ES, exactly the same pattern. YM, a bit different, but close. ___________________________________________________________________ Into Wednesday's during Settlement, we will see the direction for the rest of the year's - Low Volume Price action in all probability. We traded the Lows of the Range and the A/D was sitting on Lows, it can stabilize or Rise. It remains a very Negative indication, as do all longer TF Charts. ____________________________________________________________________ RT Anticipated, RT in Trade - Gap Fill. VFX has some catching up to do on the downside. It will provide a Lift to the Indices. Momentum Cloud to Trending Cloud Supports is the Price Objectives & Gap FIlls remain lower. by HK_L611110
VIX - VXF DailyES makes a Lower Low, VIX Higher Low. Sounds about correct for the VX Complex. Trading the 50 with no break yet implies a RAT for Indexes. .382s remains the RT POs as weakness is prevalent. __________________________________________________ Keeping VX collared is not working, the E YM NQ RTY continue to sell to lower POs. Proximity to Margin Calls is the danger now. Mid / Large Cap Winner remain in Distro. by HK_L61Updated 4
VIX - Daily: VXZ / VXF / VIX Spot-CashThe NQ will have the wider swings into Year-End as the Range has expanded from 150616 to 16302. The VIX may range into Year-End permitting the ES to build out the Symmetry. The NYSE Remains collared at the Lower end of the Range. VX has been compressing into Year-End. Wednesday will confirm as 96% of m1 is loaded on the CM-30 VXX. ____________________________________________ Implied Targets for VXX 35.16 to 45.36 on reversal. This implies a large and very extended decline. Donside Momentum is building, how long can they keep this collared... we' will see. I maintain we will test the Dialy 377 SMAs for the ES NQ YM RTY. It will be a 5/5 decline or should be... the Algos have been very good at breaking Candles, FIBs, and Symmetry - Far too many False moves. There are a very Large Number of Sellers overhead for the Equity Complex. VX should be relieved of the foot on its throat into the new year. by HK_L617
VXF - 1 HourOver 23.60 and the VIX remains in a Bid and a Long. It has become far less technical than the Indexes. Roll to settle is creating an Arbitrage which is suppressing the VXZ VXF VXX. VX Complex collared by the Operators. VXF continues to struggle at Cloud Momentum. ______________________________________________ 4X Expiry and enormous Ranges on each Index. Price is moving into the Lower end of the October Range. DX Weakness may provide the sport for the Equity Complex to produce a Counter-Trend off their Lows. _________________________________________________ We closed : NQ @ 735 ES @ 635 CASH @ 100% by HK_L615
VXF - The Blow Monkey2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening. Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into the Close. All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold. Continued Distribution. __________________________________________________________________ With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100% of VXX concentrated in VXF, the horror show begins Wednesday / Thursday - that is 100% certain. Who gets the Hall of Mirrors treatment... Stay Tuned - as the Lower High, until it is confirmed suggests a lower low well below the 4260 for the ES. A higher high and a friendly Pelican with a mouth full of fish means this complete mess could trade up into Mid January, prior to letting go into MARCH. ___________________________________________________________________ VXX - FAILURE IS 21.39 and then confirmed by 21.28 then 20.36. Sound unrealistic? Yeah, I feel ya. VXF 21.10 Price Objective on Pullback... VXF is above within the Chart Frame - Cloud Momentum and Trend have been the RANGE. Expect more complete insanity... expect nothing less. We remain 100% CASH until 230 - 3 PM EST. Should APPL reverse and retest the Highs, the Vomit Comet is my ride. __________________________________________________________________ ALL OR NOTHING for the Operators. Sure would like this to be easier.... it's not. Prefer to enjoy this, I'm not.by HK_L61886
VXZ - VIX M1 / V1 Into Settlement240 Ticks to Gap Fill. Settlement Wednesday. FOMC Wednesday. ______________________ Short Term, Gap Fill Probability is increasing on ES Symmetry. A Full Retracement could be in Trade.by HK_L618
VXF - VIX M2 / V2 Into Settlement200+ Ticks to Gap Fill VXZ M1 / V1 lower Gap Fill Continuous Contract simulated in next Commentary. _____________________________________________ ES breaks ATH this week and M1 will correct sharply.by HK_L618
VXF - Roll M1/V1 VXZ into next WednesdayThere are complications into next week. In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck. Fail on Drama, apologies _____________________________________________________________________ An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences begin to Form once again on Larger Daily and Weekly Timeframes. Delta is being hedged - simply not in a way most are paying attention to... typical and opportunity. ______________________________________________________________________ I am seeing 2 very distinct patterns within the Delta Squaring. Both create immense Risk of what should be referred to as the Cascade Trade. The over/under will depend on how aggressive the Operators become today, should they be unable to unwilling to support Price today, it is a very large Negative Omen. There exists a Protection Trade well below and not above. ________________________________________________________________________ \We will begin to see which way this breaks shortly - Roll/Settle remains ahead. Within the Pivot, whichever way it breaks ST will reinforce the Trend. by HK_L61449
VIX - Below 23.65 / Globex Fun RunIndices continue their Rally. I am posting an analogue for the Indices this morning to demonstrate how similar the RTs are to a recent point in time. We see a large RT during Globex due to the Vix beginning its pullback. ______________________________________ Privately, I was contacted by a number of Traders a few hours before the close - they all now understand why we indicated closing all SELLs and moving to CASH was the proper Trade Plan. Deeply oversold conditions always RT. China kicked the party off over the weekend with relaxed standards for their Banks Chinese RE ETFs had been sold wholesale over the prior 3 weeks. They began to level off Monday - the AX50 and HS also caught support.by HK_L61Updated 2211
a clear turn around in volatility (vx1!)sell climax in S&P500 futures should drive a buy climax in volatility index futures followed by a bumpy ride back down below the $21-20 area for VIXby cerealpeerUpdated 0
VIX - DAILY @ ST 2/2By the numbers, the VIX has repeatedly moved to Extension Price Objectives. In addition, each has been exceeded signaling a move higher. Pullbacks are limited to Globex. High are made during RTH. __________________________________________________________________ Important SMAs Crosses... they ere a sign as well.by HK_L617
VIX - Daily / LTF MM's 1/2As Breath began to indicate an overall collapse in August, narrowing of each successive move high in the NQ & ES were driven by the heavy weights within each Index. The "7" held their ground after Q3 reporting led to some clawback. AMZN was the first to decline, signaling trouble ahead.by HK_L618
VIX start buying calls with 1 to 3 months of timeBUY vix calls in the 1 to 3 month time frame here. use a reverse pyramid ratio so atm 1 otm 3 deep out 6 and repeat this as a unit slowly Shortby cutlosskingUpdated 550
VXI - VXZAPEX Key - Protection remains Bid out to January 2022. It can Pullback today or tomorrow. It will depend on whether the Indies begin to converge on Lower POs below, by example, the NQ can drop 300+ Points today... No rush, patience wins here. Entries will be provided. _______________________________________________ Sobering up underway - Rehab T4ades are crushing the Memes. Our dear Ape friends... AMC sub 30, was early on it breaking down but not in doubt. The critical issue is when Oil slows its decline as Food Producers have already put planned prices of 20 to 22.5% in Q1 Food Prices. When this hits... they had best have Trillions to dole out... Or Political unrest is all but assured.by HK_L61119
VIX - DAILY + FED @ 12/12The directors of all twelve Federal Reserve Banks favored maintaining the current primary credit rate at the existing level (0.25 percent). In light of the uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, the directors judged that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to maintain the current stance of policy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pelicans confirm, Policy Accident aheadby HK_L619