Nasdaq 100 Volatility. US Tech Stocks Remain 'Runoff Smelling'It's gone two months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. only two monts, really? 😸) since comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
- And now?..
- It's gone. It's absolutely gone..!
Leveraged bets and crypto assets turned into Bearish market; all four major US indices (S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000) are negative over the past two months, while Gold OANDA:XAUUSD has doubled in price over the past 5 years (4th time in history ever), and remain the only is premium positioned.
This is why we at our 💖 Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to paint this idea for Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN to emphasize (again) that nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind.
Broadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment.
In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms.
Every single stock index do have its own volatility.
This story (again) is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN
The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours.
The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website.
Technical observations
The main technical graph indicates that CBOE:VXN Index has recently jumped to current 'above 20' basic points.
In nowadays 'above 20' VXN levels indicate on further potentail Bearish progress in US Tech Stocks (Nasdaq 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX ).
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
VXN trade ideas
NASDAQ-100 (BIGTECH) VOLATILITY INDEX. IMPORTANT LEVELS TO LEARNBroadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment.
In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms.
Every single stock index do have its own volatility. This story is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index
The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours.
The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website .
Technical observations
The main technical graph indicates that VXN Index has recently jumped, from 5-year lows around 15 basic points in mid-June, 2024 to current 25 basic points.
In nowadays 25-level corresponds to 5-years SMA, and is the major one resistance level.
In any case of breakthrough it certainly cracks the door to 40-levels and potentially even much above.
Think twice. Then leap.
Cheers, Pandorra
VIX + VXN ChannelIf you draw a regression since the decline of assets began (ex. insiders liquidating asset positions, "inflation is fine but we're concerned" rhetoric, long term treasuries beginning to invert yield curve, 2020 forced market response waning), we reached the bottom of the channel yesterday. Many thought it would go lower and thus assets would be fine however we should be cautious and hedge our positions.
One Way To Hedge Against A Large Market Down MoveAnother way to hedge against a major down move
in stocks is to buy calls on the $VXN or $VIX.
$VXN is the volatility on the Nasdaq 100.
It is the ratio of the buying of puts/calls.
The more buying of puts than calls signals that the
market will or is falling...it's a measure of fear in the
market. The higher the $VXN or $VIX the more fear.
The markets won't stop falling now or put a bottom
in until you see a large spike up then large move down.
The $VIX is the same thing but measures fear in the S&P 500.
If you buy calls around this level (<40), I would immediately
place a Sell "Market if Touched" order on those calls at 65 or so.
This index always spikes high and quickly when fear reaches
it's crescendo.
Then you could look to buy stocks again.
One Way To Hedge Against A Large Market Down TurnAnother way to hedge against a major down move
in stocks is to buy calls on the $VXN or $VIX.
$VXN is the volatility on the Nasdaq 100.
It is the ratio of the buying of puts/calls.
The more buying of puts than calls signals that the
market will or is falling...it's a measure of fear in the
market. The higher the $VXN or $VIX the more fear.
The markets won't stop falling now or put a bottom
in until you see a large spike up then large move down.
The $VIX is the same thing but measures fear in the S&P 500.
If you buy calls around this level (<40), I would immediately
place a Sell "Market if Touched" order on those calls at 65 or so.
This index always spikes high and quickly when fear reaches
it's crescendo.
Then you could look to buy stocks again.
Another Way To Hedge Against A Large Market Down MoveAnother way to hedge against a major down move
in stocks is to buy calls on the $VXN or $VIX.
$VXN is the volatility on the Nasdaq 100.
It is the ratio of the buying of puts/calls.
The more buying of puts than calls signals that the
market will or is falling...it's a measure of fear in the
market. The higher the $VXN or $VIX the more fear.
The markets won't stop falling now or put a bottom
in until you see a large spike up then large move down.
The $VIX is the same thing but measures fear in the S&P 500.
If you buy calls around this level (<40), I would immediately
place a Sell "Market if Touched" order on those calls at 65 or so.
This index always spikes high and quickly when fear reaches
it's crescendo.
Then you could look to buy stocks again.
Another Way To Hedge Against A Large Market Down MoveAnother way to hedge against a major down move
in stocks is to buy calls on the $VXN or $VIX.
$VXN is the volatility on the Nasdaq 100.
It is the ratio of the buying of puts/calls.
The more buying of puts than calls signals that the
market will or is falling...it's a measure of fear in the
market. The higher the $VXN or $VIX the more fear.
The markets won't stop falling now or put a bottom
in until you see a large spike up then large move down.
The $VIX is the same thing but measures fear in the S&P 500.
If you buy calls around this level (<40), I would immediately
place a Sell "Market if Touched" order on those calls at 65 or so.
This index always spikes high and quickly when fear reaches
it's crescendo.
Then you could look to buy stocks again.
One Way To Hedge Against A Large Market Down MoveAnother way to hedge against a major down move
in stocks is to buy calls on the $VXN or $VIX.
$VXN is the volatility on the Nasdaq 100.
It is the ratio of the buying of puts/calls.
The more buying of puts than calls signals that the
market will or is falling...it's a measure of fear in the
market. The higher the $VXN or $VIX the more fear.
The markets won't stop falling now or put a bottom
in until you see a large spike up then large move down.
The $VIX is the same thing but measures fear in the S&P 500.
If you buy calls around this level (<40), I would immediately
place a Sell "Market if Touched" order on those calls at 65 or so.
This index always spikes high and quickly when fear reaches
it's crescendo.
Then you could look to buy stocks again.
VXN - 4 Hour / Elon'dCould not happen to a better gauge of Fear and complacency - the
trusty VXN... senseless comes to mind as the NQ began the 1:30 PM EST
Jumbalaya in the Fire.
Another persistent AGLO Monday with the usual suspects in Prop.
As the VXX began to implode again, the Bod came into the Indies.
Pressure remains out in Time for today and tomorrow, with the attendant
Distributions.
Simply a crushing blow to Volatility while New HIghs remains elusive.
_________________________________________________________________
A bad sign for the Equity Complex as there is only so much the VX Vigilantes
will absorb.
It will be interesting to see if the Larger Daily Price Objective to which the ALGOs
are attached, relent and reverse.
VXN - 1 Hour / CBOE Front LoadYesterday Put buyers were chased away.
The VXN held above the Gap FIll the entire Day.
The NQ used it for fuel as those who were blown
out of Puts... placed the Revenge trade all day
only to be squeezed time and again.
____________________________________________
Gamma Vs. Resistance for CASH as Buyers are limited
to Writers needing to Delta Square again.
VXN/NQ - VX Compression ContinuesBreaking the Trending Cloud has been a difficult Pill for many NQ traders to swallow.
The Fill Retracement remains in Effect.
Where the Operators can place this will be instructive, as there is little to no protection
being added for 11% of the Market OR 95% of Retail.
VX compression provides Cheap Accumulation for the Jumbos.
They are accumulating VX out the Curve, ever so slowly and most importantly - quietly.
__________________________________________________________________________
How long this continues is unknown.
It bares watching every day.
VXN - Utterly NO fear for TECHLowest Short interest in a long time, the same applies to the ES.
Absolutely no fear, none.
_________________________________________________________
Setting up for another Retracement next week.
For where. - Full RT is appearing probable.
We just hit the 301 Price Objective for NQ and now can
reach for the HIgher RT @ 498.
Chasers everywhere, following the HFTs higher, odd lots buying
every minor Pullback.
_________________________________________________________
Mania into year-end continues.
NQ/VX Continues its DivergenceUnsurprisingly - the VX Complex continues to receive the Dirty Monkey
treatment, showing a clear Negative correlation in relation to Price.
NQ continues to perform feats of Mystery and Imagination to no ones
real surprise, same game as yesterday, trap sellers at low once again
only to reverse and Monkey Hammer them.
It's becoming a farcical Daily Trade for Santa, Elon automated the Elves.
Tesla continues its Gamma Slamma Bid to provide entry for - "Hey it's Elon"
- again.
_________________________________________________________________
VXN into 22s, Joey bring the Donuts, it's Batter Up.
70+ NQ straight up in Extension.
:)
VXN - 1 HourCompressed into a break, should backtest at some point OR
it is off to new highs this week.
TSLA filling its Gaps as Elon continues to sell another 237K Shares
to complete the SUM SELL.
Once the Wizzard of Odd lots finishes his Distro, there can be a some
room to test the Range 792 - 1012.
Interesting how the HODLs continue to HOLD - Tesla is almost wholly
owned by Jumbos and not Retail.
Big Data is taking somewhat of a Hit this AM Session as well.
________________________________________________________________
Appears the Rotation DOA Trade one day wonder has left all Equity Corners
in further Sells.
DOW is being smoked once again @ - 600+
More Selling - More MARGIN CALLS