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Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Jun 2025)Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Jun 2025)Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Jun 2025)

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Jun 2025)

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UBM2025 trade ideas

A trade of a lifetime idea for 2025 This is a potential trade of a lifetime. Long term yields have gone up since the Fed started cutting. Although counter intuitive, this is what they do most of the time. The future cuts are going to be bull steepening (i.e. we are close to if not at the bottom for ). Although the Fed says it will cut less in 2025 let’s look at the factors that could make them wrong (TWW, They have always been wrong) 1) Continuous jobless claims and unemployment are going steadily up. The Fed will panic if this trend continues. 2) Inflation is still in a downtrend and the worldwide data suggests it will keep going down. Trump's policy can be inflationary but like any administration, they will take time to implement them and will not likely affect the data right way. Besides, Trumps want tariffs but low inflation and low interest rates (You can't have your cake and eat it too). Regardless, this is why I am not predicting further than the end of 2025 at this point. 3) The economy appears to grow strong, but the USA can't be isolated from the rest of the world for ever. The European and China problems are going to affect the growth. 4) The stock market is overvalued so a big correction in 2025 is very likely. In which case, money will flow in bonds and the Fed will intervene. 5) Long term yields in other countries (Germany, Canada, Switzerland, China...) Have started to go down. The USA is just a bit late because the Fed is slow to react and still hawkish, but my bet is… not for long. 6) The US Dollar is super strong. What will the Fed attempt to do? Keep the interest differential between them and other countries low (i.e. drop interest rates) How much can this be worth? Lets say you have $13,000 and buy one UB1! Contract that you roll over throughout the year (You need about $8,000 of margin so you have $5,000 to cushion a potential fall below the October 2023 low, where I suggest you put your stop loss). If it reaches the $181’06 level, you make approximately $62,968 or 484% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If by any chance it reaches the $209’20 level, you make approximately $91,093 or 701% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If you don’t like futures, you could do a similar trade using NASDAQ:TLT although it will be a bit less impressive but also less risky. I'll let you do the math. Note: This is not a financial advice, trading comes with risks. Expected results are not guaranteed results. This is only an opinion, take it for what it is.
CBOT:UB1!Long
by adventurous51
1
Go short on UB daytradingShort U.S. Treasury Bond Futures: Key Factors Signaling a Downtrend With evolving market conditions, shorting U.S. Treasury Bond (UB) futures might be a timely move for investors. Rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and shifts in fiscal policy all point to potential declines in long-term bond prices. Here’s why taking a short position on Treasury Bond futures is worth considering. 1. Interest Rate Hikes: A Negative Signal for Bonds As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation, bond prices have historically moved in the opposite direction. When rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing bonds with lower yields less attractive. This shift pressures long-term bond prices, which we see reflected in the UB futures market. Given the Fed's recent signaling for potential further hikes, bond prices may see additional declines in the coming months. 2. Persistent Inflation Pressures Despite efforts to control it, inflation remains above target levels. Persistent inflation erodes the real returns on bonds, prompting investors to look elsewhere for inflation-resistant investments, such as equities or commodities. With inflation elevated, the real returns on Treasury bonds may continue to look unattractive, adding downward pressure on bond prices. For UB futures, this means a bearish outlook as investors shy away from low-yielding, inflation-sensitive assets. 3. Shifts in Fiscal Policy and Government Debt U.S. government spending has surged in recent years, contributing to a growing debt load. As new bonds are issued to finance the debt, the increased supply could further drive bond prices down. The expectation that the government will need to issue additional debt – possibly at higher yields – could create a challenging environment for existing bond prices. This scenario strengthens the case for shorting UB futures as the supply/demand balance weighs heavily on prices. 4. Technical Indicators Confirm the Bearish Trend Looking at technical analysis, UB futures are showing signs of a bearish trend, with prices trending downward over recent months. Moving averages are sloping downward, and the futures have recently broken below key support levels, suggesting momentum may continue. Additionally, RSI indicators are not yet in oversold territory, implying there could be further downside potential before a technical rebound occurs. 5. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Appetite Rising global tensions and uncertainty in foreign markets are leading investors to adjust their risk tolerance. As equity markets show resilience and risk appetite increases, there’s less inclination toward traditionally safer assets like long-term bonds. Furthermore, as investors anticipate that Treasury bonds may underperform amid high inflation and rising rates, demand for bonds may continue to weaken, further supporting a bearish position in UB futures. Conclusion: Strategic Timing for Shorting UB Futures The combination of rising interest rates, persistent inflation, increased debt issuance, and a negative technical outlook creates a compelling case for shorting U.S. Treasury Bond futures. As economic conditions evolve, these factors may continue to weigh on bond prices, offering traders a favorable entry point to capitalize on the anticipated decline.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by BidAskMagnet
How low can bonds go?Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline. BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by gr8fultrading
Macroeconomic: Long Bonds/Stocks, Short GoldGold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also continue to rally which will be good for both bonds and stocks. For Gold, here you can see the EW justification for a return to lower levels as part of a 4th wave (before eventually making new highs). Then a zoom in on the current breakdown: I think a short position in Gold is justified, as well as long Stocks. The bottom in Bonds has not yet shown itself but could be any minute or day IMHO. I think the biggest risk to this macroeconomic analysis is that we will see a deflation across multiple assets as a result of rising rates, which will be apparent if stocks don’t rally and bonds continue lower.
CBOT:UB1!
by FuturesIntelTM
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Become Masters Masters Serve Slaves Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
33
📚🎬💎#e08 : An Ultra Bond Future💍Married To The⛪💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course Money But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money The Cost Of Money Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision💜 d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business Ventured C4L 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time Slow Drip💧 ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Keep Your Bond⚔️ Watch Your Loyalty⌚ Buy Freedom To🔥 0.96 % x Cost ♋ Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 ☔ 📚#e07🩸GG : 📚#e⏭️06 : 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y Pluto 🛰️ Hndrxx 👩🏻‍🎤
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
13
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes This Is True Bet You Didn't Know That Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role Is To Correctly Price The Cost Of Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably Our Roles Are Fulfilled ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Only Pay Spread Fee Regardless Of Trade Size As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader Over Time Same As Any Business d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Will Topple Masters Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
42