Bonds - Taking profitsBonds got a big boost out of the recent inflation number. A nice run but I'm taking profits here and taking a short position.
ZBH2026 trade ideas
Did the Bond Market Just from a Bottom? Hey Traders so today was looking at the 10yr Treasury Bond and the 30 year and it looks like it just formed a 123 bottom formation on the charts. Add to that a 3 bar trendline and Bond Seasonality normally shows strength in the summer.
Now I am not a Bond Expert by any means and I could not tell you what the FED is going to do at their next meeting or if interest rates are going to fall or rise in the future.
But what I can say is that true Technical Analysts believe that almost everything fundemental that could happen is normally priced in the charts which is why historically we see these Seasonal Patterns over and over again year after year.
Does it work always? NO
But most of the time it does which in trading if we have most of the time on our side I consider it to be good enough edge to trade with risk management. So with that being said.
If bullish wait for 50% retracement of this big rally candle in the coming days and buy when it pulls back.
However if bearish wait for a break below support around 111.00
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
ZB Breakout Alert: Smart Money Pullback Above FVG!The 30-Year Bond Futures just broke key structure, and smart money seems to be eyeing a precise pullback above the Fair Value Gap
Here’s what I’m watching:
Clear market structure break
- Liquidity sweep before breakout
- Pullback aligning with ICT-style premium arrays
- Bullish continuation potential into the next imbalance zone
This setup reflects institutional order flow and smart money behavior — perfect for traders focused on precision entries and risk control.
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US. Notes Treasury Bonds BOS Steps In?There is a break of a bearish trendline, combined with volume confirmation and wick candles that give us strong bullish reversal pattern also combined with ICT and Price action confirmation that tell us where Smart money going.
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Bond holders soon will be RewardedThe bond market has just come through some of the worst times in history—crushed by inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and fiscal chaos.
But bondholders might soon be rewarded. In my view, the macro environment could deteriorate further, especially in the labor market.
$ZB - 30y Treasury Futures Sell off in Equity Risk OnThe 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures (ZB) sold off notably, driven by a combination of macro headlines and technical positioning. A key catalyst was the European Union’s decision to postpone the implementation of retaliatory auto tariffs until July 9th, which temporarily eased geopolitical tensions and triggered a risk-on rotation into equities — at the expense of duration-heavy fixed income assets.
From a technical standpoint, ZB fell sharply from the upper 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band and found support near the 2 standard deviation band, where it stabilized. It then retraced roughly 50% of the move, tagging the 20-period simple moving average. Market participants are now closely watching whether the contract completes a full measured move lower to 111'19, a level that represents:
The 100% Fibonacci extension of the prior decline
A test of the lower 3 standard deviation band
A notable inefficiency zone on the hourly chart
While the MOVE Index has declined and is now tracking sideways — signaling reduced bond market volatility — traders remain focused on long-end supply, fiscal slippage, and global rate re-alignments. Until these themes settle, technical levels like 111'19 may continue to act as magnets for price discovery in long-dated Treasuries.
ZB1 Bullish trend Confirmation after a strong SignalThe price has successfully broken above previous resistance, confirming bullish strength. The breakout is supported by high volume, signaling institutional participation and strong momentum.
Key Technical Signals
Resistance Break: Price surpasses a critical level, flipping it into new support.
Volume Surge: Increased buying activity confirms commitment from large players.
VWAP Support: Price remains above VWAP, reinforcing trend continuation.
Momentum Strength: No immediate rejection at resistance, indicating sustained buying pressure.
Trade Strategy
Entry Zone: Pullback to newly confirmed support for a better risk-reward setup.
Stop Loss: Below previous resistance to protect against false breakouts.
Profit Targets:
First Target: Next resistance level above.
Second Target: Trend continuation zone with strong liquidity.
Final Target: Extended move if volume remains elevated.
Risk Management
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Maintain a minimum 1:2 to optimize gains.
Trade Management: Adjust stop-loss dynamically as price moves higher.
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ZB Bonds Breakout: VWAP & SMA Breach Toward 161.8% Fib The recent price movement in ZB bonds presents a compelling bullish setup, backed by strong confluences. Here’s a precise breakdown of key technical factors driving this trade:
Bullish Breakout Confirmation
The price has successfully broken above the VWAP and the 209 SMA, signaling strong institutional momentum.
This break suggests a sustained bullish trend, as overcoming these key resistance levels often invites additional buying pressure.
Fibonacci Extension as a TP Target
Using Fibonacci extension analysis, we aim for the 161.8% level relative to the previous impulsive wave.
This level serves as an optimal target zone where price action tends to slow down, making it an ideal profit-taking area for traders.
Pullback & Confirmation of TP
A potential pullback to the 209 SMA would act as a critical test. If price retests this level and forms a strong green candle, it confirms sustained bullish strength and solidifies the TP target.
This reaction provides a reliable validation point before price reaches exhaustion at the Fib extension level.
Execution Plan:
Entry: Break above VWAP & SMA confirms bullish sentiment—ideal for initiating a long position.
Monitoring: Watch for a pullback above SMA to validate the rally.
TP Target: Set profit exit at 161.8% Fibonacci extension, aligned with wave analysis.
Risk Management : Tighten stop-loss levels if price fails to hold above SMA on a pullback.
Conclusion
This trade setup integrates multiple layers of technical validation, combining VWAP, SMA, and Fibonacci extensions to strengthen our bullish bias while offering precise entry and exit levels. A disciplined approach using this strategy helps minimize risk while maximizing potential profits.
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Warning watch this Out Might be the end of the moveFollow @GoldenZoneFX for more Valuable insights.
Are you catched that trade?
Major Short Signal: SMA209 Breakdown + Rising VolumeAn explosive trade setup is emerging, with price decisively breaking below the SMA209 alongside a surge in selling volume—a classic confirmation of bearish momentum. This move presents an optimal shorting opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on trend shifts!
Key Observations:
SMA209 Break: A significant trend reversal, flipping prior support into resistance Volume Surge: Confirming institutional selling pressure & momentum shift Momentum Indicators: RSI entering oversold territory, MACD bearish crossover
Trade Strategy & Risk Management:
Entry: Short below SMA209 after confirmation candle closes Target: Key support zone or Fibonacci level for precise exits. Stop Loss: Above SMA209 breakdown or previous resistance level. Risk-to-Reward: Optimize with proper position sizing & trailing stops.
Professional Insights:
Why This Setup Works?
SMA209 acts as a dynamic trend gauge, and a break below signals market weakness
Institutional traders often drive volume spikes during trend reversals
Confirmation tools such as VWAP, order flow, and liquidation levels reinforce decision-making
💬 Are you taking this trade? How do you refine your short setups? Let’s discuss!
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T Bond Futures Quarterly chart targets the LOWSDebt levels are increasing
There is insufficient demand to soak issuance.
Interest rates need to increase.
The value of bonds is expected to decline down to the bear flag target.
Divergence Since 2020 - What Happens When Bonds Continue?When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean?
We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling?
Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure?
A healthy, three-way interdependent relationship occurs when the economy, bonds, and stocks move in the same direction. When investors have confidence in the U.S. economy, they tend to invest in long-term bonds, which it usually will benefits the stock market.
This alignment was evident between 2000 and 2020, during which bonds and stocks moved largely in tandem.
However, from 2020 onward, bonds began declining—signaling a loss of investor confidence in the economy. Technically, this should exert downward pressure on stocks as well.
Yet, we are witnessing a divergence: Where U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen while stocks have continued to rise.
When such a divergence surfaces, it signals the need for caution in our approach in the stock markets.
What could be the other reasons why US T-bond has peaked in 2020 and depreciated by 44% since then?
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
Technical Collapse: ‘Strong Sell’ Signal Flashes Technical ratings turned Strong Sell as open interest dropped to 1.80M contracts this week
signalling bearish momentum.
Hedge funds unwound basis trades, triggering forced selling and margin calls.
ZB1! - April ReviewDuring times of consolidation, it's best to keep your powder dry. Don't shoot your load in one go expecting liquidity pools to be used as a springboard to the next premium/discount array.
Expect up and down price action throughout this month.
114 up for grabs
ZB1! - Low Hanging Fruits Pays The Bills!Please refer to US10Y Yields if you want a detailed, 360 analysis of the bond and yields market as I cover the reasons why price action has been soo tricky recently and what to expect going forward.
Low hanging fruits if important right now and studying the daily timeframe throughout next week will give me the indication whether 116.18 will be a good price for the bonds to reverse from or a springboard for higher prices
Areas of interest long & short in the 30Y TreasuryOverall I feel yields will be rising rather than falling, I am not concerned of what the catalyst might be to cause this but simply following the price action particularly on the 10YR Yield. So that being said I am bearish the 30YR treasury. However, if price retraces down to the lower zone drawn (113) we could see a nice rally up to the higher/larger zone drawn.
At the higher zone (117-118) I would make sense that this un-tested area where the supply exceeded the demand would likely hold and we would see a nice short play out. The target(s) on the short side will be updated once price action has come to fruition as price moves into these zones but a move down to at least the April lows of 106 isn't hard to imagine.
US Bond Slide Began in 2020 — Not Tariff-Driven. Why?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April.
Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022.
Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory.
So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground?
In 2020, the massive Covid QE signaled a tipping point in the debt issue that had been discussed for decades. By June 2022, inflation reached 9%, the highest in four decades. Investors grew concerned about the US's dependence on debt as the bond bubble appeared to burst.
Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then?
And where are bond prices heading next?
This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April.
U.S. Treasury Futures & Options
Ticker: ZB
Minimum fluctuation:
1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Trading the Micro: cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html
Why Is the T Bond Heading Down?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April.
Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022.
Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory.
So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground?
Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then?
And where are bond prices heading next?
This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April.
U.S. Treasury Futures & Options
Ticker: ZB
Minimum fluctuation:
1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
ZB1! - Donald Trump Took A Huge Dump In The Bonds MarketIt was only two weeks ago when market participants were cheering on the bond market for it to rally higher.... until al hell broke loose!
120.18 was the initial draw on liquidity before the bond market capitulated into October 2023 BISI.
What's net on the horizon?
B wave almost completeI still think it's a B wave and we can go higher to 5500, however I think a C down is next and it could be dramatic.
US bondswill US bond prices continue their upward trend ? If yes, bonds would be a solid buy rn with a very solid more than +10% chance. If no, bonds will leave its current upwards trend and would test upcoming strong horizontal resistances. this ideas chart will let us track the answer to it.
FERRIS BULLERS DAY OFF - READ DESCRIPTIONWho knows... just posting this to watch.
"In 1930 the republican controlled house of representatives in and effort to alleviate the effects of....
anyone, anyone??
GREAT DEPRESSION....
Passed the....
anyone, anyone??
tariff bill - the Halwey-Smoot Tariff act which
Anyone??
Raised or Lowered? RAISED
Raised tariffs in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government.
Did it Work?
Anyone, Anyone know the effects?
IT did not work and the United States Sank deeper into the great depression!
-FERRIS BULLERS DAY OFF
Bond Yields Ripping, Will Wall Street Take Notice?Rising yields can usually be associated with a period of risk on. But seeing the 30-year treasury yield rise over 20bp in Asia while Wall Street futures cling on to their cycle lows is anything but usual. In fact, it's a bad omen of things to come.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
