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ZB1! trade ideas

ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 159'22 Support: 151'22 Pivot: 156'00 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 159'22 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 151'22 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Tickmill
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 159'22 Support: 151'22 Pivot: 156'00 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 159'22 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 151'22 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
Title :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond) , H4 bullish continuationTitle :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond ) , H4 bullish continuation Resistance: 159'26 Pivot: 155'19 Support: 154'11 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level of 155'19 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and can potentially go to the graphical swing high level of 159'26 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Price dip to the support level of 154'11 in line with 1272% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Tickmill
Title :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond) , H4 bullish continuation Title :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond) , H4 bullish continuation Resistance: 159'26 Pivot: 155'19 Support: 154'11 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level of 155'19 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and can potentially go to the graphical swing high level of 159'26 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Price dip to the support level of 154'11 in line with 1272% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Genesiv
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish continuationType: Bullish continuation Resistance: 163'18 Support: 157'24 Pivot: 159'16 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection to our 1st resistance of 159'27 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario : Price may dip to the support level of 154'25 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Tickmill
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 163'18 Support: 157'24 Pivot: 159'16 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection to our 1st resistance of 159'27 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario : Price may dip to the support level of 154'25 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Genesiv
10 year T-Bonds (ZB1!) , H4 Potential for bullish bounceTitle : 10 year T-Bonds (ZB1!) , H4 Potential for bullish bounce Type: Bullish bounce Resistance: 159'16 Pivot: 156'16 Support: 155'01 Preferred case: Price near buy entry level of 156'16 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce from this level to the resistance level of 159'16 in which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Price dip to support level of 155'01 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by SCLOWs
10 year T-Notes (ZB1!) H4 potential for bullish bounce Title : 10year T-Notes(ZB1!), H4 potential for bullish bounce Type : Bullish bounce Resistance: 159'04 Pivot : 156'05 Support : 155'02 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level of 156'05 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance level of 159'04 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is at support level. Alternative scenario: Price dip to support level of 155'02 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection Fundamentals: With RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict escalating , Treasury prices may increase as investors look into safe haven assets. As fundamentals and technicals align, it is a good opportunity when looking in to ZB1! .
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by SCLOWs
10 year T-note Futures ( ZB1! ) , H4 potential for bearish dipTitle: 10 year T-note Futures ( ZB1! ) , H4 potential for bearish dip Type: Bearish Dip Resistance : 161'08 Pivot : 160'11 Support : 156'19 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 160'11 which is also the graphical overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 156'19 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported the stochastic indicator as it is at resistance level, Alternative scenario: Alternatively price go to the resistance level of 161'08 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: The US has repeatedly stress that US troops will not be directly involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, the ramifications faced by the US due to heavy sanctions on Russia is not fully realized. Prices of bonds may continue to increase as investors continue to flee to safe haven assets. As technicals and fundamentals do not align , there is a risk on factor when looking in to ZB1!.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by SCLOWs
10 year T-note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bearish dip Title: 10 year T-note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bearish dip Type: Bearish dip Resistance: 157'08 Pivot: 156'19 Support: 154'13 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level which is also a key graphical overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 154'13 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic level as it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price can break this key graphical overlap level and go to the 1st resistance level of 157'08 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: With RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict escalating , Treasury prices may increase as investors look into safe haven assets. As fundamentals and technicals do not align, there is a risk on factor when looking in to ZB1!.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by SCLOWs
10 Year T-Note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bounceTitle: 10 Year T-Note Futures ( ZB1! ) , H4 potential for bounce Type: Bullish bounce Resistance : 154'10 Pivot: 152'09 Support : 151'08 Preferred case: Price has recently bounce from pivot level of 152'09 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially go to resistance level of 154'10 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bullish bias is supported by the moving average as price is trading above it. Alternative scenario: Price can potentially dip to the support level of 151'08 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: With the Russo-Ukraine conflict escalating to an all out war, prices of bonds will continue to increase as investors flock to safe haven asset. Technicals and fundamentals align, thus ZB1! may be a good opportunity to look into .
CBOT:ZB1!
by Tickmill
1
10 Year T-Note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bounce Title: 10 Year T-Note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bounce Type: Bullish bounce Resistance : 154'10 Pivot: 152'09 Support : 151'08 Preferred case: Price has recently bounce from pivot level of 152'09 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to resistance level of 154'10 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the moving average as price is trading above it. Alternative scenario: Price can potentially dip to the support level of 151'08 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: With the Russo-Ukraine conflict escalating to an all out war, prices of bonds will continue to increase as investors flock to safe haven asset. Technicals and fundamentals align, thus ZB1! may be a good opportunity to look into .
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by SCLOWs
10 Year T-Note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 due for bearish dipPreferred cases: Price is near pivot level of 153'15 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 151'08 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near resistance level . Alternative scenario: If price were to continue its rally, it can potentially rise to the 1st resistance level of 154'10 which is also our graphical swing high resistance. Fundamentals : With the Russo-Ukraine conflict escalating to an all out war , prices of bonds will continue to increase as investors flock to safe haven assets. Technicals and fundamentals do not line up thus there is a risk on factor when looking into ZB1!
CBOT:ZB1!
by Tickmill
10 Year T-Note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 due for bearish dip Type : Bearish Dip Resistance:154'10 Pivot:153'15 Support: 151'08 Preferred cases: Price is near pivot level of 153'15 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 151'08 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near resistance level. Alternative scenario: If price were to continue its rally, it can potentially rise to the 1st resistance level of 154'10 which is also our graphical swing high resistance. Fundamentals : With the Russo-Ukraine conflict escalating to an all out war , prices of bonds will continue to increase as investors flock to safe haven assets. Technicals and fundamentals do not line up thus there is a risk on factor when looking into ZB1!
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by SCLOWs
A Story About Simplicity and Moving Average Envelopes CBOT:ZB1! First, a short story. I like simple stuff. Maybe it's just me (I don't think so) but the more complex my process becomes, the worse the trading results. In 1987, four years into my career, I used a combination of Wyckoff and Elliott to make a series of very profitable bond market calls for my institutional clients. I spent my days and nights obsessed with counts, counter counts, alternate counts, Wyckoff sequences, oscillator nuances…. In other words, all the shiny complex things were in play. Needless to say, I came out of the experience a legend…. in my own mind. In retrospect, I had loads of confidence but very limited real knowledge or experience. It's counter intuitive, but the success of 1987 was detrimental to my growth as a trader/analyst. After the great results/luck during the tumult of 1987, 1988 proved difficult. My Elliott count became muddied, I often misread the Wyckoff price volume relationships and while not disastrous, my results turned quite ordinary. As the results worsened I responded by adding ever more complexity to what was an already complex routine. To make a long story short, as complexity increased, results worsened. To suggest that I became frustrated would be an extreme understatement. I questioned my future as a technician/trader. I remember walking into my office one morning after a particularly bad week and deciding that things had to change. I decided to immediately begin simplifying my process. I retreated to basics. Happily for me, as I eliminated complexity I found better results. Over the next few years I continued to simplify and to refine my risk management approach. By simplifying and becoming less risk tolerant I became an effective trader/analyst. Simplicity is robust, it is typically fractal, and reduces difficult decisions to ordinary. Simplicity is also a process. Most only arrive there after a long journey. Moving average envelopes certainly fall into this "simple is simply better" approach. • Construction is simple and intuitive. • Construction is easily adapted for any market or time frame. ○ This is important because every market has a specific character. Some trend for long periods while others chop and mean revert with regularity. ○ Importantly, character changes over time. It had been four years since I last updated my bond moving averages, the changes were significant. ○ Part of this probably has to do with the level of Fed involvement. I don't think I had significantly updated my bond envelopes for nearly thirty years prior to this adjustment. ○ Part of this has to do with the level of interest rates. At lower levels of rates, prices are generally more volatile as durations (a measure of rate sensitivity) become longer. ○ Because the envelope construction is revisited periodically it remains current to changes in market state and condition. ○ Don't assume that envelope settings that work on 30 year futures will work on 10s or 5s. Differences in duration create large differences in volatility ○ Also, the settings that work well on futures won't translate to yields. Using percent change (envelope tops and bottoms are placed at percentages of the moving averages) on a percentage is just wrong. I see supposedly financially literate people do this all the time… what the hell? Building the Envelopes: • The average and the width of the band is an eyeball approximation. Nothing fancy. • Choose one of the available moving average envelope studies available. I used one created by H-potter. • Set average 1 up so that the upper and lower bands follow the price action closely. • Set average 2 up so that the upper and lower bands generally tag the next higher perspective swing points. • Set the third average up so that the upper and lower bands tag the highs and lows of the next more volatile set of swings. • I often add a fourth set of bands that tag the next higher perspective highs and lows. • Don't get carried away. Keep it simple and intuitive. • I am intentionally not providing my settings. I don't think they are important but I think its important for you to go through the process for the particular market and time frame you are working in. How I use the Envelopes: • Convergence of the upper or lower bands suggest that the market has become overbought or oversold. • Odds of correction, even if laterally, expand significantly when the band extremes converge. • You would never buy or sell based upon the convergence. But you might reduce a long/short position or begin monitoring for reversal behaviors as the bands come together. • I generally use the warning of an extended trend given by the bands to begin closely monitoring price action, searching for tradable setups with good risk reward characteristics. Conclusion: Simplicity can provide a real edge while complexity often becomes a headwind to success. This simple moving average envelope system can be modified for nearly any market or time frame and is adaptive over time. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by CMT_Association
46
ZB1! H4 |Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance : 156'17 Support : 151'07 Pivot : 153'29 Preferred Case : Price is near pivot level of 153'29 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance of 156'17 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above the clouds Alternative scenario : Price can dip to the 1st support level of 152'17 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection Fundamentals: As russo-ukraine tensions continue to escalate, bond prices will continue to increase with investors flocking to safe haven assets.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Rockqet