ZB1! - Failed To Deliver Buyside Liquidity. What's Next?In a scenario where US10Y has completed business @ 3.666, you'd expect the run on 126.27 to be seamless....
It isn't.
Expecting a short-term retracement
ZB1! trade ideas
ZB1! - Point Of No Return...With new weekly highs booked, what's next for the bond markets?
The price range in play right now is 126.27 - 121.17 and i have to ask myself this one question...
Where does the pain lie the most at?
ZB1! - Has Been Conducted & Completed @ 125.13?The opposite is in play in comparison to yields where price is currently trading in a premium and I am looking out for a draw below 121.17.
EQ lies below with a HTF bullish order block @120.16 being the main point of interest going into next week.
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
ZB1! - Similar To Yields Right? Don't we all love a blow-out top ey?
In my last post, i mentioned interest in 125.30 as an area of important buyside liquidity which the algorithm would me most likely to target before moving up to the HTF rejection block @ 129.26.
Last week showed a sharp rejection from the premium SIBI range and this week trading solely inside last weeks dealing range.
Volatility will be induced into the market and stops, whether it's buy stops or sell stops will bend their knees to the wraith of the marketplace.
The question to ask is, which side will bend their knees first??
I'd put my coins on Sellside, targeting the buyside imbalance Sellside inefficiency with an overall target of 120.20.
I want to see 122.21 negated, with a candle body closure below for my first objective.
ZB Bonds 30YrThe market continues to step out the final leg of this interim B-wave up that's interceding for now before the true decline of note as we head into 2025+.
US Bonds, despite the analysis and weakness projected, remain a more viable unit than does Japan and Europe as we move forward.
T-BOND futures Wednesday 14th AugustPossible reversal in this daily fvg, OR IT WILL PUSH HIGHER TO nNDOG
Buy Opportunity on T-Bond Futures Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy T-Bond Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The Target is $129'31 within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
ZB1! - 7 Days Of Heaven! Do You Want It To End?!ZB1! most volatile week in quite a long time; 26th Feb 24 being the only period this year with higher volume numbers, standing at 3.459 Million whilst this weeks volume is 2.677 Million.
The correlation between Yields and Bonds is currently in lockstep motion with each other; both printing 7 straight days of one-way price action.
I will not rule out a potential for a manipulated retracement to the downside but if this was to occur, the infamous level of 120.20 (as documented before in the last 4-weeks of analysis) is a potential draw for smart money to enter the arena.
Looking out for 125.30 highest SIBI & weekly buyside liquidity as my first target
Stretch target for this week is the macro order block @ 129.26
ZB1! - 120.20 Has Been A Stubborn AreaIt's been a relatively quiet week in comparison to the other pairs. Nothing major played out in the bond markets this week other than the last 2 weeks low being taken out before a pullback occurred. If it wasn't for the raid on sellstops, this week would have been an inside week, increasing the possibility for a low resistance liquidity run up to relative equal highs @ 120.20 (as mentioned before in my previous weeks analysis)
Relative equal highs @ 120.20 is prone to negation.
Just as US10y traded up to the volume imbalance before rejecting, repricing to the downside, ZB done the exact opposite, sweeping the 9th Jul 24 sellside before repricing higher. This also begun from Thursday and continued onto Friday.
First draw in liquidity is the premium array @ 119.21 - 119.26
Second draw in liquidity is 120.20 - 120.24
ZB1! - Yields v Bonds Matrix!I am anticipating a continued sell-off, short-term before a rebound, aiming for relative equal highs @ 120.20 - 120.24 as smooth edges tend to be made jagged as more trust is built.
118.30-118.26 T1
118.23 draw on liquidity T2
This might take some time to pan out.
Just gotta trust the process
ZB1! - Putting My Faith In 120.20Bullish bias has continued from last week with no signatures in price action indicating a weakness in the bulls.
It must be mentioned that US10 might have already done it's business below sellside and might be looking to rally higher.
If that is the case, it could take some time than expected for 120.20 to be delivered
ZB1! - Gap Filled, Off We Go!118.27 is playing a stronghold on the intraday timeframes.
Once candle body closes above the consequent encroachment, I'll be looking for further upside action
ZB: Buy ideaBuy idea on ZB1 as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and also the breakout of the resistance line.
US Treasury Bonds Arc of DestinyUS Treasury Bond Arc of Destiny to reach all time highs by Jan 2026 as the Fed cuts interest rates in the face of oncoming recession and a liquidity crisis
ZB1! - Manipulation Before DistributionSellers best have their pick axes and swords cos it's soon going to be a bloody scene!
ZB1! - I Like How Bonds And Yields Sync Up This WeekRemember scalpers, it is imperative that the projection you make is at least 2x larger than the actual pip amount you are aiming for.
I aim for 5-handles consistently which is a mere $250 per contract trading NYSE:ES but i always try to project 10x moves so that i can be confident in risking money for a profit of 5 handles.
$ZB1! - Bears Has Gained Massive Momentum!With weekly buy stops taken, there's only a few alternatives left...
116.16 macro equilibrium is my small hanging fruit Bonds is most likely going to attack!
Are you ready for war?
US Bonds EoM Review Teetering around both PD arrays on a a macro timeframe with 114.11 sellside and 118.23 buyside in scopes
ZB vs US10Y Daily ChartZB - Closures in the VOID previous suggest price will most likely seek higher since this area is "balanced" already
US10Y - Nice rejection after getting the higher prices we expected last week.
Reasonable to assume we could get a closure below the VOID in discount this week
Bonds - Bearish - First Week of JuneContinued bearishness, expecting MMSM to continue here. Bonds have filled & closed below Weekly Fair Value with equal lows on ZF. Although there was SMT at the lows, SMT on the highs printed shortly after followed by bearish order flow on the weekly chart.
Will 50/50 Funds have to Dump the NDX and SPX Friday?Funds that keep a portfolio of 50 percent bonds an 50 percent stocks are now too long the equities. Many times at the end of the month, these funds will have to rebalance. That could lead to big equity sell-offs.
