Bonds WaitingWill short on retest of extreme if break out of minor channel shows liquidation. Right now, I'm just waiting. Targets reached
ZB1! trade ideas
US Treasury Bond Futures In Consolidation - 6/7/2016Whether it will break upside or down is anybody's guess but playing the range has been a very profitable exercise so far. As the global trend on bond yield suggests, a break on upside is more likely then down but we have to be vigilant if Fed surprises with hike. In that case also, it will be another buying opportunity than selling we believe. US has long way to go for negative yield but you never know !
T-BONDS FUTURES short entryThe price is at prior resistance area.
Some sort of a double top is being formed which is consiedered to be a reversal pattern.
I'm not sure whether I'll close the trade at initial target or earlier. However, the probability of a profitable trade here is pretty good.
Both entry price and stop-loss price are on the chart.
GLHF ;)
ZBVery clean bullish chart in an ascending channel pattern.
Short term descending trend line has been broken, therefore have initiated a long position.
ZBRetraced 50% of its low to high break-out from the descending trend-line.
A break above the blue dotted descending trend-line would initiate a long trade with a target of the 1.272 extensions at 173
ZB - Some Short term setup on ZBNQ is setting up for long as well. Which will win, Not in my hands, wait and watch. Make sure to Navigate the market with caution, Until we find the confirmed direction.
30-yr UST: The Long Bond is gonna get heavyEarly signs of topping on ZB futures. Distribution candles on the top, and failing yet again at familiar spot. Setup is not yet confirmed by RSI or MACD, though, and the long bond bounced a bit off the MA(9).
I'm inclined to open half of my position here. A daily close below MA(9) would lead me to open the second half of the short on ZB, targetting MA(200), around 156'00 at current times.
A breakdown below MA(200) is in the cards if Crude Oil (related idea) goes above 35$. Otherwise, good to hop on some ZBs for risk-off trading!
Squeeze on............ BondsInteresting enough, with the pending interest rate decision from the FEDs, The Bond market is experiencing a Squeeze.
Higher interest rates, affects the Bonds and Stocks negative, while the former being more sensitive, Keeping an eye on the Bonds may Shed some lights. If the interest rates will raise or not.
1. ISM index reported low
2. ADP Employment change is high.
Importantly,
3. Non Farm Payroll is due this friday.
That is a good amount of catalyst for the market.
In addition, This being the last month of the year, trading is a bit slow, even with the market failing to notice the divergences between multiple co-related asset classes.
Good Luck
Enjoy the holidays
See you all next year. Unless Something important happens.
Bond fireworks soon?The weekly chart on the Bonds is developing a signal. No matter what direction the wedge breaks we expect a 6-10 week move. Keep this chart front and center on computer.
Why you should be buying more stocks now...The chart presented is a Comparison of the 30 Year Bond and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Notice how the extreme Peaks in bond prices (hitting the upper trend line) starts a strong rally in Equities and also vise versa. Its a good time to buy stocks, and short bonds. With the Feb raising rate some time in the future, I expect bond price to fall and the the next major top can be estimated when the price hits the lower trend-line. Until then the Trend is your friend...The projections made are just estimates based on the average of the two last occurrences of this pattern. Bullish !
It's not a system, it's progressionAll markets move the same. There is always accumulation which sets up a pop and leg up. Once the leg is complete we will always see distribution, followed by a leg back down to test every level that was gained and lost.
Most people can't recognize accumulation or distribution. Instead they call it chop, which is technically not incorrect, but it limits our view. When we know if the chart is accumulating or distributing, we know where price is going to go next. If we just say it's in a chop mode, or sideways, we gain no insight.
The safest trade that can be made is off a first touch. The pop or drop is almost 100% accurate, a large move, and very few people understand how to recognize it. This probably makes people scratch their head as to why it's a strong entry.
The h pattern is also a result of a first touch pop, where momentum is being exhausted to setup to test a significant level below and then to test the most recent level lost. Often we will see accumulation during the h pattern. Patterns are generally worthless when looked at alone. Patterns form during the progression process. What are double bottoms and inverted H&S? Accumulation patterns. What about H&S patterns? Distribution. What about wedges? You guessed it: either accumulation or distribution patterns.
Leg starts will pretty much always be tested, and are the absolute best trade to take on a first touch, because the following move will almost always be very large.
This is not a system; it's progression, and it's on every single chart on every single time frame.
30 Year T Bond at supportThree weeks ago T-Bond saw this level. Likely to penetrate. Next level is a revisit to 140 not seen since Nov 2014. Note the high level excess supply signals in late Dec.
TLT / ZB - Sling Shot Entry. Make Sure no squeezes are forming in Intraday chart setup.
100% Symmetry Support / Sling Shot Entry. Watch for a TLT / ZB Reversal. Again Not betting it will make a new high, if it does, Thats BONUS.
Long 30-Y Treasuries Futures $ZB on Pull BackIn a deflationary environment, yields will continue to fall and bond prices will rise. In many countries, we are seeing structural deflationary pressures that can't seemed to be fixed by adding money supply.
This trade setup looks to buy a pull-back to the P-Pivot level, which also coincides with the up-trending blue slope
As of 13 Jan 2015, price has broken through 148'00 to form the beginnings of an AB=CD pattern.
Using the AB=CD pattern to project key levels, the target set for Profit Target One is at the .618 extension level, right before the All Time High dating back to years ago.
Profit Target Two is set at the full AB=CD extension.
Stop Loss is set to below point B of the AB=CD extension and below the previous weekly low.
Entry: 149'05
Stop loss: 147'05
Profit Target One: 152'25
Profit Target Two: 160'17
Come back....No entry for now. Bonds gapped down and didn't even get close to our entry area. We will watch for a bounce...below the zone we will continue to look short.
Yields vs ZBsTime to short yields. Trajectory on reduction of LSAPs is what's important now, Not the fact that they're reducting, that's priced in and happenin. It's going to be data dependent, which means we're in for another round of this psychological waterboarding of strong highly opinionated market views. This combined with big positioning to the downside for bonds, i.e higher yields. Makes it a low risk contrarian entry.
