The /ZB Could Be a Daily Bear FlagBonds don't matter all the time with equities. But if the /ZB breaks down, it would show a solid divergence with stocks. That would provide a big headwind for the SPX to make all-time highs.
ZB1! trade ideas
Buy US bonds, March 118.08 limit, if filled stop at 115.29Buy US bonds, March 118.08 limit, if filled stop at 115.29
Change in ZB structureU.S. Treasury Bond ZB is performing a breakout from the pitchfork channel conducting the price since March 2020 .
In case my analysis is correct, the price objective will be 140.28125 USD.
Time to short ZB for the next leg downBonds have taken a breather, but it doesn't seem like the overall trend has changed.
ZB has been in a downtrend, the bottom hasn't been retested.
I don't think the bottom is in, from a overall trend.
If the bottom is in, it hasn't been tested.
CLF 12.06.23Did I follow my plan?
Entry
Exit
What Mistakes did I make?
What could I have done better?
What rules will help me with the above?
The Bottom in Bonds? The 30-year bond futures market has undergone notable shifts, commencing with a bottoming evident in late October. This trend has been significantly influenced by the unveiling of inflation figures, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in November.
Economic Data Driving Bonds:
PPI indicated deflationary pressures, while the CPI surprisingly showed no increase, setting a distinctive tone in the market. The recent revelation in real consumer spending further added to the intricacies, with a downward revision of 3.6%, falling short of the expected 4.0%. Despite a marginal increase in savings rates month over month (3.8% in October compared to 3.7% in September), signs suggest a potential deceleration in consumer activity.
Of paramount significance is the vulnerability observed in the labor market. A deeper downturn in labor market conditions could propel bond prices higher, fueled by heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, particularly for the month of May.
Major Technical and Fundamental Headwinds:
The bond market currently faces a critical obstacle in the form of overhead resistance within the range of 117-22 to 119-05. Market participants are eagerly anticipating a decisive break and close above this level, viewing it as a pivotal indicator that would lend robust support to the anticipation of an upward trajectory in bond prices.
Investors and analysts alike are vigilantly monitoring economic indicators and labor market trends, recognizing their pivotal role in shaping the future direction of 30-year bond futures. The interplay of inflation data, consumer spending patterns, and labor market dynamics sets the stage for a nuanced and closely watched landscape within the bond market.
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
US 30yr: Can Bulls Reclaim 115We're looking at the US 30yr bond futures for a potential move higher through the 115 handle. The way bulls have chewed it up this level so far which is promising, market may support a bond rally as dollar keeps moving down
ZB1:Buy idea: Head and shoulders reversedAs you can see we have an inverted head and shoulders chart. This means that we would have a high probability of having an upward trend.Thank you.!
Weekly Preview SPX 500 Oil Gold BondsAll in the video, decided to do it early because I'll be away until Monday. SPX could continue slightly higher, but I don't think it gets past 4450 as of now. Other markets are at interested support zones.....
Have a nice long weekend!
ZB1: Buy ideaBuy idea on ZB1 as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the support line, the vwap and the resistance line by a big green candle follow by a large green volume.Thanks!
ZB1: Buy ideaAs you see on the chart we have an uptrend because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and also the breakout of the resistance line by a big green candle.Thanks!
US Treasury Long Bond Futures BottomThere is great potential that the 30 year T-bil futures have bottomed. This chart is a micro count version of the final 5th wave of primary wave 1. Depicted as a legal impulse consisting of an expanded flat correction for minor wave 2. Wave 3 is longer than wave 1, so the length rule is satisfied. Minor wave 4 is labeled as a contracting triangle whose internal C wave is a complex zigzag. The Elliott Wave Theory tells us to expect either a short brief fifth wave following a triangle or an egregiously long extension. In this case, it's the latter, as minor wave 5 subdivides as an impulse containing two extensions in both the minute 3rd wave and the minute 5th wave. Given that the guidelines are satisfied, I have no problem making the call that primary wave 1 of the US Treasury 30 year bond bear market is complete.
ZN1: Buy ideaBuy idea on ZN1 as you see on the chart because we have the breakout of the vwap indicator and also the breakout of the resistance line.Thanks!
Could AI Help Dampen Inflation?Will the 2020s look like the 1970s with unstable inflation and soaring prices? Or will we return to the 2010s with low stable inflation rates of around 2%? There is a case to be made both ways.
Those who worry about the possibility of durably higher inflation argue that the quarter century of low, stable inflation rates was a consequence of the end of the Cold War, globalization and just-in-time supply lines.
Now, many of those factors have reversed. Military spending is on the rise worldwide as global tensions mount. Nearshoring and friendshoring are moving production out of China and into places like Vietnam and Mexico but at an increased cost. Finally, just-in-time-delivery has proven to be fragile and creates a strong potential for supply chain disruptions.
These factors, combined with shrinking workforces in China, Korea, Japan and much of Europe, could put upward pressure on wages and inflation.
But there is a counter argument: technology continues to advance rapidly, and generative AI could pose a threat to many middle-class service professions. And inflation has begun coming down in many countries, led by the United States.
In the U.S., core inflation has fallen from 6.6% YoY to just 4.1%, and most of the remaining increase has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, U.S. inflation is running at just 2.1% year-on-year. After a massive global tightening of rates, economies may also slow significantly, reducing inflationary pressures.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
BIDEN Digital Dollar And EU Dollar Wack all assets Bonds firstBIDEN Digital Dollar And EU Dollar Wack all assets Bonds first - As you sleep wake up to New dollar WORTH 75% of current www.whitehouse.gov
ZBZ3Shorted in Sept shorting in Oct.
Another 30 year T-bond short most effective day to open over the last 15 yrs is 10/2 missed it but opening today. Will want to hold this open until the 24th of October. Look at the December Contract as the front running contract for this trade. Futures = Calender spread back date the long side to the March contract. Options... I am torn safe bet is to sell for the premium like a credit spread. But if your willing to chance it and pay the premium a debit spread could be worth it.
"Take a wild guess what im shorting in Nov. you'll never guess it." - KewlKat
Beautiful Pattern expected on ZB1Enjoy this beautiful pattern on CBOT:ZB1! valid for the next weeks.
If Pitchfork broken --> Instant bullish trend wil form --> configuration will change
Otherwise the price will be following the fork's levels.
Don't gamble ;)
U.S. Treasury Bonds Nearing a Bear Market RallyThe history of the chart doesn’t go back far enough for full context, but the assumption is that a major top in treasury bonds occurred in 2020. Since then, the market has been relentlessly carving out a 5 wave impulsive decline. Since this decline is unfolding in 5 waves, this tells us multiple important things. Firstly, what begins with 5 must also end with 5. And since the decline has already greatly exceeded the end of the previous wave 4, we now know for certain that a major top was printed in 2020. The bond market has a long way to go for recovery, that will likely last well over a decade. But relief is soon on its way. The 5th wave of the decline will finish before long and a multi year bear market rally will ensue to capture the hearts of bulls everywhere. I’m well in front of the market with this analysis and this post will soon be forgotten. But looking back in several years, you’ll know to expect the biggest decline in US Treasury bonds in generations
T-Bond Futurs outlookSince nearly every asset is impacted by Risk-Free-Rate and also the equity markets are heavily impacted by Bond markets i checked ZB!!
Did't count the first upmove and i used line chart to get rid of that choppy trash, fore now it looks like we are done with an impulse (maybe out of a flat)
Which matches to my bullisch spx count
$ZB: 110 is the questionLooking at 30yr's here it seems likely that we continue to have one more leg through the 110 handle at which time we may reconsider the position. Good luck traders!
ZB1: Sell ideaSell idea on ZB1 as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap and the support line by a big red candle with a large red volume.Thanks.
ZB1: Sell ideaSell idea on ZB1 as you see on the chart after the breakout with force the vwap indicator by a big red candle with a large red volume.Thanks.
Buy ZB an ZN profit 86%bUY at 111.12 and close at 80% OR 83% profit
use small contrats. It's a break after down 3 days ZB want to make a correction.
