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ZC1! trade ideas

Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 679.25 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Price could possibly retrace back up towards 677.6 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and 1st resistance lie before heading down, breaking the pivot at 667.5 and then moving towards 1st support at 660.00 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue heading down towards the pivot before bouncing back up towards the 1st resistance. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 698.50 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: Price has reflected off the first support level at 698.50 on the H4 and appears to be descending again to test it. watch for the price to cross the first support level and go toward the pivot at 667.50, which is where the previous swing low lies. The chart appears to be constructing a double top with equal highs along the first resistance, which adds another confluence to this bias. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may bounce off the first support and continue moving back up toward the first resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has came back down to test the 1st support at 679.25 and has reflected off it. Price has also went back above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could drop down below the first support and head towards the second support at 668.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line and previous swing low lies. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Tickmill
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has came back down to test the 1st support at 679.25 and has reflected off it. Price has also went back above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could drop down below the first support and head towards the second support at 668.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line and previous swing low lies. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has bounced off the second support at 668.25 which is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line, and went above the first support at 679.25. Price has also gone above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could bounce back down from the pivot structure and drop to first support to 679.25, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line sits Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Tickmill
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has bounced off the second support at 668.25 which is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line, and went above the first support at 679.25. Price has also gone above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could bounce back down from the pivot structure and drop to first support to 679.25, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line sits Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
ZC Potential for bearish momentumType : Bearish Drop Resistance :681.75 Pivot: 688.00 Support : 668.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price reflecting off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line and the price being inside ichimoku cloud, we have a neutral bias on corn. price could back to 668.25 where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might go back up towards the pivot line at 688.00 Fundamentals: Top farming and food firms could lose up to a quarter of their value by 2030 if they do not adapt to new government policies and consumer behavior tied to climate change, United Nations-affiliated campaigners said in a new report. (Farm and food investors face $150 bln loss on climate change)
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
USDA Report Day!Fundamental Spotlight USDA Report out at 11am CT Ukraine Advances It's being reported that the Ukranian military has recaptured roughly 3,000 square kilometers of territory that was being occupied by Russia. That is roughly 740,000 acres. US Dollar & Data The US Dollar has retreated to trendline support (see chart below). There is a lot of inflation related data this week and a fed meeting next week that could have big implications for the currency and thus commodities such as grains. Corn December corn futures have been choppy since the Sunday night open as the market braces for today's USDA report. The market remains entrapped by the support and resistance levels, which keeps them unchanged into this week's trade. A breakout and close above 687 could open the door for a bigger directional move out above the $7.00 handle. A failure could take us back to the low end of the recent range, 647-650ish. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 682-685****, 700**, 725 3/4-728 1/4**** Pivot: 665-667 Support: 647 1/4-650 1/4****, 624-631***, 606 3/4**, 584 1/4-587 1/2**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
CORN - SHORTHead and shoulders not withstanding nor the break of the LT trend, this is a nice rally to take a stab at a short in the current commodity deflation we are experiencing. No real wave pattern yet even lower time frames but given the macro and the price, volume, volatility calculated daily range near its top end, that confluence or an emerging pattern is believed (by me) will come soon. And its at a (random line, not really part of a strategy) that some may identify as an area to sell as well
CBOT_MINI:XC2!Short
by bitofamacroman
Corn FUTURES (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 686'6 Pivot: 673'6 Support : 654'4 Preferred Case: On the H4, with there's a bearish divergence of price and MACD , and there's potential double top pattern, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 673'6, where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is to the take profit at 654'4, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and neckline of "double top" pattern. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 688'6 where the swing high is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZC1!
by Tickmill
Corn FUTURES (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 686'6 Pivot: 673'6 Support : 654'4 Preferred Case: On the H4, with there's a bearish divergence of price and MACD, and there's potential double top pattern, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 673'6, where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is to the take profit at 654'4, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and neckline of "double top" pattern. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 688'6 where the swing high is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a TurboBecause virtually the whole world is suffering from massive drought this summer, many crops are in bad shape. This is true with the U.S. cotton crop and it's also true with the U.S. corn crop, which according to USDA reports, barely half of is in good or excellent condition as of last week. This is significant because the U.S. is the largest global producer of both, and by a huge margin. This gives good cause to believe that a pump is on the horizon, but when, and how easily will it arrive? The good news is for latecomers is that it seems as if the Ukraine panic pump and dump from April+ bottomed out in July, based on recent price action. "The second mouse gets the cheese." There's a big gap on corn and wheat remaining from the June doom candle, which should transpire as a range that gets eaten into as we head into later September and October. Winter may very well be new all time highs, because the world and humanity is in a lot of trouble. The environment is not in good shape, but to understand what this really means, you have to throw away the leftist-socialist-establishment "carbon" narratives, because those things are not only distractions, but they exist as a Communist Party pretext to take away your Freedom of Movement. But just look at the lack of water and functioning ecosystem and ask yourself how long the happy is going to remain in North America. The situation in Europe is already very dangerous. Regardless, with the way price action has traded this month, it seems likely that corn futures has a good shot of breaking July's high before the end of the month. But it also looks like it may not run in a straight line up and take care of that business on Monday or Tuesday. If you get a retrace into the 597 range, it seems there's a functional trade. However, it's entirely possible that August fails to break July's high. But if you can get out over 640 all the same before the month closes, you'll have done pretty well. As for the rest of that gap above, I don't think we see that until the next commodities supercycle starts, likely beginning to ramp in late September-October. Today is like a turbocharger. They all take a bit to spool. But once they do, it's really fun. Unless you're the one standing in front of the Ferrari.
CBOT:ZC1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Corn Futures Continue to Slide LowerFundamental Spotlight Flash Sale Alert Private exporters reported sales of 167,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. (More) Lower Yield Estimates Commodity Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier released his yield estimate for the U.S. corn crop. He dropped his estimate 3 bushels per acre, to 170 bpa. As mentioned, several times over the last week+, we feel the market has digested the lower yields and believe the market is likely trading closer to a 170-172 yield, below the most recent USDA estimate of 175.4. Taiwan Strait U.S. military vessels and aircraft have returned to the Taiwan Strait as tensions escalate. It's being reported that Taiwan fired shots at a done belonging to mainland China. We don't believe that this conflict will go away anytime soon. If the tensions rise to the point of U.S. intervention, it would likely be extremely bearish for grain futures. Outside Markets Outside markets were sharply lower yesterday with indices down to their lowest level since the end of July. Crude oil futures were sharply lower yesterday, erasing all the gains and then some from the previous session. That weakness has spilled into today's session, with October futures currently trading down another 3% and below the psychologically significant $90 handle. December corn futures are lower to start the day, filling the gap left from Sunday night. If the Bulls fail to defend this pocket, we could see prices pullback towards the low end of the back half of last week's range, near 650. We discussed our near-term outlook in yesterday afternoon's Tech Talk: Watch Now! Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 682-685****, 700**, 725 3/4-728 1/4**** Pivot: 665-667 Support: 647 1/4-650 1/4****, 624-631***, 606 3/4**, 584 1/4-587 1/2**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Shortage! Blah Blah BlahThis week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War. Trapped in a descending trend. If corn manages to push past the golden pocket + trend line resistance, corn will now be on the west side of the Berlin Wall. Free to explode into the June highs of $7.5. In this analogy, I personally think that the soviets will maintain control and rule over corn until harvest is over. Corn harvest has started in the south and will continue into Nov. As we harvest we will have more corn in the bins and ready to use. Which will lead to lower prices IMO. Simple supply and demand. Based off of the chart technicals, I am even more confident in saying that corn will be rejected because of where the GP and trend resistance lays. Once price reaches those levels I am expecting to see a bearish divergence on all three oscillators, and then I will go short big time. This could be a multi-month trade. But as always take profits on your way at key targets. Major short target: $5.70-$5.30
CBOT:ZCZ2022Short
by farmtrader15
3
Chinese Data Sends Grain Markets LowerFundamental Snapshot China Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down over 3%, just to name a few. U.S. Dollar The US Dollar is firming on the back of poor Chinese data, continuing the relief rally from Friday. The U.S. dollar was able to defend 105, which was previous resistance in May and June and the eventual breakout point in July. If the dollar continues to rally, it could be a headwind to some commodities. Weather Weater throughout the Midwest looks cooler and wetter for the next 1-2 weeks. For some problem areas, it may be too little too late. The conversation around weather will be shifting to South America in the coming weeks as they begin planting. Corn December corn futures "broke out" above resistance on Friday which took prices to the 50-day moving average and our next resistance, 640 1/2. Futures are weaker this morning, giving back all of the gains from Friday and then some. This takes prices back to trendline support. A failure to defend this area could open the door for a retest of the psychologically significant $6.00 handle. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 638-643**, 650-655*** Pivot: 620 Support: 584 ¼-587 ½***, 561 ¾**, 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine