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ZC1! trade ideas

Risk-On!It's a risk-on day in the outside markets with many sectors catching a tailwind on a softening U.S. dollar. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 21,693 contracts, shrinking their net long position to 151,174 contracts. Broken down, 16,972 was long liquidation and 4,721 were new shorts. Technicals: Corn futures opened higher and turned negative last night. That weakness has turned into strength this morning with a nice tailwind from a weaker U.S. dollar and in turn stronger commodity markets. The first meaningful resistance pocket for September futures doesn't come in until 627 3/4-631 3/4. Our bias was moved to neutral last week, stating our belief that there will be great opportunities for participants on both sides. If the market makes it to resistance, we would consider moving our short-term bias back into bearish territory. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 627 3/4-631 3/4****, 645-652 ½***, 678 ¼-684 ½** Support: 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn, Commitment of traders, US Dollar, and Corn open interest: An abundance of drivers influencing the Ag markets. Together the Funds and Commercials create a very liquid environment that trends up, down, or sideways. During certain times of extreme macro and/or fundamental influences their combined forces move away from a market looking for fair value to a market driven by fear. Fear can cause strong trending moves higher and lower. But when the marketplace is severely spooked, the funds and commercials seem to completely leave the markets and can do so for an extended period of time. The 95’ short crop caught a lot of HTA (hedge to arrive) bag holders off guard. The HTA debacle and the Rising US Dollar (dot com bust liquidity drain) spooked the market makers enough to drop Open Interest to a very low area from the late 90’s to mid 2000’s. This created a very unwelcoming market structure for corn trading mostly in the lower $2.00 area. I share this to illustrate just one example of how outside influences greatly affect Ag commodities. I hear a lot about recessions pulling money from stocks and into commodities. Sometimes that is the case, but scared money can sit on the sidelines for some time. Too much is going on in the world and capital flows are abnormal. I don’t know where any of these markets are going but it sure seems that for the moment money is moving to the sidelines in many markets…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Chop, ChopCorn Fundamentals: Consolidation continues to be the name of the game, which was actually encouraging yesterday morning when many other commodity markets were full on risk-off. To us, that indicated good underlying near term strength in the market as we inch closer to the weekend. Technicals (September): Not much has changed on the technical landscape over the last two and a half sessions. The market is continuing to linger near the middle of our support and resistance pockets. Our bias is outright neutral as we think there will continue to be short term trading opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. We would be looking to flip our bias into bearish territory against resistance and bullish territory against support. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 624-630*, 645-652 ½, 678 ¼-684 ½ Support: 586-589, 574 ¼-579 ¼** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Corn Hold the Early Morning Strength?Grain futures came out of the gates strong last night but are retreating as weather forecasts continue to change. This is to be expected this time of year. There is a USDA report tomorrow, but weather forecasts this week will likely have a bigger impact on prices. We will have estimates out later this afternoon. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 55,748 futures/options contracts through July 5th. 30,446 was long liquidation and 25,302 were new shorts. This shrinks the net long position to 172,867 futures/options. Broken down, that is 244,288 longs VS 71,421 shorts. This is the smallest position they’ve held since October 2020. If you’re new to grain trading, you may think that funds nearly always hold a net long position (like they do in live cattle). That couldn’t be further from the truth. Technicals: Corn futures were 16 cents higher last week and are taking on another 16+ cents on in the Sunday night/Monday morning trade. Early last week we moved our bias from Bearish territory to Bullish territory, siting significant support levels and an extreme low in the RSI. Alone, those are not enough to outright flip our bias, but together it was. The market gaped higher to start this week’s trade. This has taken prices back to the secondary breakdown point from June 30th, near 650. Last week we talked about this area being a potential selling opportunity for those who exited shorts or initiated longs against support last week. That thesis is still in play, moving our bias back into Bearish territory. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 667**, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 645-652 ½ Support: 624-630***, 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
CORN FUTURES SELL CALL OUT BY JOHN THE FOREX GUY!NB Watch the video I published on corn sell I explained my trade in more details. I will give you an IDEA/EXAMPLE how I am taking this trade lets base this on a $100 account: (A) Open 1x position SELL (B) Stop loss -$5.50 (5.5% loss of $100) (C) Take profit +$25.00(25% profit of $100) Disclaimer I not a financial advisor I am simply a retail trader sharing my trade where I entered, plan to exit loss and profit so always do your own research before committing/investing your money.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by b522c56f985c4db38e69230ce2cc1a
13
Time to Buy the Dip? Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, this is a 3% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is unchanged. 7% of the crop is silking. Weekly export inspections came in at 676,824 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Corn futures broke below support which opened the door for a precipitous drop, filling the gap from February 7th and coming within a stone's through of previously significant resistance from November to February. Despite the extreme volatility, all the technicals remain intact as our first support pocket held on a closing basis yesterday. As mentioned in yesterday's Tech Talk, this is a great risk/reward setup for those that want to be long the market. If you had been playing the seasonal bearish trend, this is the spot to consider reducing that exposure. The chart is a technical graveyard but is ripe for a decent relief rally. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn: Continued Long Liquidation Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 36,649 futures/options contracts through June 28th. This was all long liquidation, 38,185 contracts, with a tiny bit of short covering. This shrinks their net long position to 228,612 futures/options. Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Scattered showers over the weekend have many traders looking for a lower open in the corn market. Stone X (one of the multiple FCM’s we use) raised their Brazilian crop estimate to 119.3mmt, up from 116.8mmt. Technicals: Corn futures broke lower on Thursday, trading to the 200-day moving average. On Friday, that gave way. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above 630, we could see the long liquidation continues. The RSI has not showed signs of being this oversold since the spring of 2020. If the Bulls can climb back above that pocket, we could see a retracement of the breakdown from Thursday, closer to 645-652 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Continuous Corn - WeeklyContinuous Corn - Weekly: **The big red bar down this week is a bit exaggerated as this chart has rolled to chart against the Sep with a 1.20+ inverse. Nonetheless, corn is still down .50 +/- for the week. The 6.16 low hit the trendline, time will tell if this holds. Should we see a bounce from here the first test will be at 7.05 to 7.20. Primary targeted area at 7.72 to 8.00. Extended potential above 8.24 at the 8.50 area. IMO, we will need the reality of production cuts to see new highs, not just a weather forecast.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn: Pitch forks at playContinuous Corn – Weekly: Up trending vs Down trending Pitchforks – Continued from 6/2/22… Up until two weeks ago it appeared that cash corn was going to follow the green bars up with the up trending pitchfork. The July/Sep inverse was a big challenge and the move lower just killed the chance for the continuous chart to maintain upward momentum. Currently the Sep corn leading the continuous chart and is looking for support against the median line in the 6.00 to 6.08 area. If we can catch a bounce look for resistance against the lower level blue line up into the upper level red line. Retracements in the 7.00 to 7.50 area will match up against the pitchfork resistance zones. Below the median line offers support around the 5.45 area
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn Futures Test the 200 Day Moving AverageCorn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals (September): Yesterday’s USDA report was Neutral, but Neutral wasn’t enough to feed the Bull into the last trading day of the month/quarter, which triggered additional long liquidation on a break below support from 645-652 ½. That weakness carried into the overnight session and took prices a notch below our next support pocket, 624-630. The market is now the most oversold sense April of 2020. If the market is able to defend support, we could see a retracement of yesterday’s breakdown point, 645-652 ½, this will now act as significant resistance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Consolidates Ahead of USDA Report Corn Fundamentals: Corn futures have traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning session as prices consolidate ahead of end of month, end of quarter, and all-important USDA report. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last year’s report we were at 4.111. Technicals (September): Consolidation is the name of the game as we inch closer to the highly anticipated USDA report. With the market chopping around and not really going anywhere, many of our support and resistance levels remain unchanged. Resistance levels come in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. On the support side, 645-652 ½ is the pocket the Bulls want to defend. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Support: 645-652 ½****, 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Can Corn Rally Ahead of the USDA Report?Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress showed deteriorating crop conditions (though still better than last year at this time) with good/excellent ratings at 67%, a 3% decline. This has led to overnight relief as we inch closer to Thursday’s USDA report which will cover planted acres and quarterly stocks. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last years report we were at 4.111. Technicals (September): The market dipped lower yesterday, taking out the Thursday lows but there wasn’t much follow through selling, which led to a rally off the lows into the afternoon. We would not be surprised to see the relief continue into Thursday’s USDA report, with resistance levels coming in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 645-652 ½ Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn spreadsContinuous Charts: Top – Front month to next deferred month Spread Underneath is Front Month continuous Rule 1: Carry spreads have limits, Inverse spreads have no limits… In the past 25-30 years we have seen 6 very strong inverted markets. Each inverted market lasted between 3-6 months and often times carried a bullish market reaction. When the inverse disappears, usually the corn market loses it’s bullish strength… None of the above inverses lasted past September. So on one hand history is strong to say that Dec/March spreads should be safe to hold some carry. But on the other hand, inverses have no rules. Risk-Reward: Don’t look to be a hero on Dec/March spreads, waiting to pick up another .05 - .07 of carry may not be worth the risk when there seems to be potential for .20 to 1.00 inverses on the table.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Will Corn Stabilize Ahead of Options Expiration Corn (July) Technicals: July corn futures are weaker in the overnight/early morning trade. Though it looks ugly on the screen, we have not broken below our significant support pocket, 747-753. As mentioned from the start of the week, July options expiration may be the catalyst to help July corn futures stabilize into the end of the week. December corn….no that’s a different story. December futures have broken below the 100-day moving average and are trading at their lowest price since March 31st. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 778 ¼-784 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Test and Defend Significant Support Corn Technicals: In yesterday’s morning report we wrote that the early morning weakness below the 50-day moving average (near 780), stating that it “opens the door for a potential retest of significant support from 747-753”. That support was tested and held to a T through the session and in the overnight/early morning trade. Now it’s up to the Bulls to defend it during the regular trading hours. One thing that might help is this week’s options expiration. There is a lot of open interest in the 750 strike, which may help the market consolidate, we talked about this in yesterday afternoon’s Tech Talk. Feel free to reach out with questions or to get these videos. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 778 ¼-784 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures RetreatCorn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 13,858 futures/options through June 14th. This expands their net long position to 278,185. Broken down that is 329,725 longs VS 51,540 shorts. Technicals: Corn futures were sharply higher on Friday morning, but posted their high within the first minute of the “floor open”, which happened to be right at our first resistance point, 800. The rest of the day was steady selling, pressing prices into negative territory by the close. That weakness has spilled into the overnight and early morning trade, following a long weekend. The market has broken below the 50-day moving average which opens the door for a potential retest of significant support from 747-753 Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 789 ½-790 Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 800'0 Pivot: 782'2 Support : 770'6 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 782'2 where the overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 800'0 in line with the swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 770'6 in line with the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for corn .
CBOT:ZC1!
by Tickmill
1