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ZC1! trade ideas

This Corn Seasonal is in PlayCorn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals: Corn futures were able to defend the previous day's low during yesterday's session but didn't do much to change the technical outlook. Our pivot pocket remains intact, that comes in from 769-773 1/2. trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average come in just above that, near 776-778. On the support side of things, 747-753 is the significant pocket and potential inflection point. If the Bulls fail to defend that pocket, we could see long liquidation take us back to the lows from two weeks ago, in the mid 720s. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 776-778*** 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 769-773 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Corn Market Update: Fundamental/Techncial Analysis 6.14.22Corn Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed corn is 97% planted, 88% emerged, and Good/Excellent conditions at 72%. All within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,199,976. This was also within the range of expectations. Dr. Cordonnier increased Brazilian corn production by 3mmt to 110mmt. The USDA is at 116mmt, we believe the market is pricing in somewhere in the middle of those two estimates. Technicals (July): July corn futures were lower yesterday, but finished off the lows, closing right near our pivot pocket, 769-773 ½. We are seeing some of yesterday’s weakness spill over into the overnight/early morning session following yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report. Technical levels remain largely intact. Resistance remains intact from 789 ½-790 ½. A continued failure to reclaim ground above here would mark a lower high, which would keep the door open for a potential lower low and a drop back to the 100-day moving average, 726 ½. The inflection point for a bigger drop would be a break and close below 747-753. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 769-773 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn: Buy, Sell, or Hold?Corn Fundamentals: Outside markets are under significant pressure this morning, but corn futures have so far been able to brush that off. Hot and dry forecasts have some market participants concerned, keep in mind that hot and dry forecasts are not abnormal for this time of year. The weekly crop progress report will be out after the close. Corn is expected to be just shy of 100% planted. 100% of what will continue to be the ongoing debate. Good/Excellent ratings are expected to come in near 73%. Last year at this time the crop was rated 68% G/E. Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 7,108 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net long position to 239,592. Broken down, that is 307,876 longs VS 68,284 shorts. Technicals (July): Corn futures had an impressive week, rallying and completing a full retracement of the May 31st/June1st selloff. If the Bulls can find some follow through momentum this week and chew through technical resistance, we could see an extension take prices back near $8.00. A failure to get out above 789 ½-790 ½ would mark a lower high, which would keep the door open for a potential lower low and a drop back to the 100-day moving average, 723 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 769-773 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-723 1/8**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Technical Update for July CornCorn (July) Technicals: July corn futures were able to chew through significant resistance during yesterday’s session, which has opened the door for an extension towards our next resistance pocket, 769-773. This pocket represents the lower high from the end of May, as well as the 50-day moving average. If the Bulls can keep the momentum going and chew through this resistance pocket, a retest of the psychologically significant $8.00 handle wouldn’t be out of the question. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 769-773 ½***, 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾** Support: 747-753****, 729-733**, 716-720 ½****
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
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CBOT:ZC1!
by vzeinali
Corn Testing Significant Resistance LevelsCorn Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the U.S. corn crop is 94% planted, 1% ahead of expectations and 2% ahead of historical average trends. 78% of the crop has emerged with 73% being rated in good/excellent condition, 5% better than the average analyst estimate. Futures have brushed off the good conditions and are finding strength as concerns over dryer forecasts add back some premium to the markets. Technicals: Corn futures opened last night lower but have found strength two cents above our first support and have rallied back into positive territory, taking prices back into our 4-star resistance pocket, 747-753. As mentioned in yesterday’s report “This is a pocket we would consider selling into as it provides a well-defined risk-reward setup, in our opinion.”. A break and close above resistance is your sign to take the L and look for another setup. Our next resistance pocket for July corn above 753 doesn’t come in until 769-773. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 747-753****, 769-773***, 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾** Support: 729-733**, 716-720 ½****
CBOT:ZCN2022Short
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Revisit the Scene of the Crime The Scene of the Crime Previous support and last week's breakdown point from 747-750 will now act as first resistance form July corn. The recent trend of lower highs and lower lows keeps the advantage in the Bears favor. Consecutive closes above resistance could neutralize the technical damage and take prices back to the recent lower high, 775. Crop progress will be out this afternoon which could set the tone for the overnight trade.
CBOT:ZCN2022Short
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Catch Their Breath Before Their Next Move.Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 185,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 48,700 MT for 2022/2023 Technicals (July): Corn futures took a breather yesterday, trading in a relatively narrow range, keeping technical levels intact from yesterday’s commentary. 729-733 has been a meaningful support pocket for us coming into this week’s trade, it is now acting as a pivot pocket as it has become a battleground area for the Bulls and Bears over the last two sessions. A failure to defend this pocket could spark additional long liquidation. With that said, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some relief come into the market first, with the objective being a retracement of the breakdown point from Wednesday, 747-753. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 747-753****, 769-773***, 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾** Support: 729-733**, 714-720 ½****
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
US Corn Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutions
CBOT:ZC1!
by Sunstorminvest
Corn: 2 possible scenariosAn attempt to show potential paths that corn could take. • Currently have an up-trending pitchfork (blue): If corn respects trend line support and makes another run up, the trajectory could warrant a move above $9.00 into mid July and into August. Sep Corn will have some work to do to chew through the large inverse but it can be done. The green bars illustrating the move is a ghost feed from this same time frame on 2012’s move higher. • The down-trending pitchfork (red) will make an attempt to it’s own median line at 6.11 and could theoretically make that move into last half of June (July contract). At this point we could se an attempt back up to compete with recent highs. So what to do. New crop (Dec22) will follow the course of front months, so use continuous chart to help make decisions on new crop. On a break above the upper level downtrend line on the red pitch fork (following the green ghost feed) start looking at selling physical, buying puts, selling option premiums (spreads…), etc On a move below the lower level up-trending blue pitchfork, look for support to re own or buy courage calls (against the red ghost feed). Keep targets on a recovery at retracement’s just below the high mark and be ready to lift out of calls or roll up calls in that area. Buy puts on the recovery to get 100% priced and protected. All of this is in theory and not necessarily a decisive game plan. Just wanted to share some thoughts...
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Corn - Monthly continuous Last years high of 7.35 met the median line of the long term pitch fork and turned lower. This year we have met the median line again with a high of 8.24. It appears that the median line has strong resistance. The momentum indicators (RSI and Stochastics) are turning lower. The divergence in lower pivots this year on each indicator accompanied by higher highs in corn cautions of a potential change in trend. **Cautiously Bullish Corn, this chart is the reason to be cautious**
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending trend channel which supports bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 769'4 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection, horizontal pullback support and 50.0% fibonacci retracement, to the support at 735'6 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. The descending trendline on the RSI indicator also supports our bearish bias. Alternatively, price may break through pivot to the resistance level at 786'4 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Potential Bullish Momentum On the H4, with price reaching the bottom of the trend channel and is expected to move within it, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot level at 760'2 in line with 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension, to the 1st resistance at 771'6 in line with 78.6% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement, or the 2nd resistance at 785'6 in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break the pivot and drop to 1st support at 747'0 in line with 27.2% fibonacci retracement.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutions
CBOT:ZC1!
by Sunstorminvest
Corn and commitment of traders The market is not looking to find “Fair Value” in this current “Fear Driven” Market. Any thoughts on upside and downside risk above and/or below current prices should be considered… The fundamentals to support a bullish market remain in place for this corn market. I still believe the job of this market is to see prices high enough to ration demand. A narrow focus on crush, feed, and export demand could argue that price has not rationed demand just yet. I would not discount a potential run up to 9.50 or even 11.00. But other signals could be telling of demand rationing already. The strong dollar may not ration immediate demand, but it will ration future demand. Remember, this is a Futures Market. No chart attached - but the selloff across the equity markets needs to be monitored. Retail and fund investors have been more speculative into the current stock market and maintained highly leveraged (margined) positions. A continued sell off in equities could cause a major liquidity drain across all tradeable markets. Large Spec Fund’s may reduce their position out of the commodity space for some time. This will ration Paper demand…. Corn – Monthly Continuous: Competing with all time highs. Commercial Longs (blue): Mostly End users hedged corn, bought to protect margins. Currently more than 200k less contracts compared to this same time last year with a market that is almost a dollar higher (Divergence). But, currently in line with previous years. I am surprised they are not as excited this year to hold more long positions. If they do get excited, I assume that will cause the next strong run up. Commercial Shorts (yellow): Mostly elevators hedged corn bought from producer. Currently just over 1m short positions held. In line with 18’ and 19’ seasonal positions. Typically, a seasonal position between 800k and 1m shorts held by the commercials represents enough Natural selling to settle down the Corn Market. The commercial elevators appear to own a significant amount of corn. Is end user basis strong enough, and is the July/Sep inverse strong enough to move elevator owned bushels yet??? ** In theory elevators are Shorts and end users are Longs. But in this strong demand driven inverted market I expect there to be spread positions placed from both sides to add another layer of protection. All this just makes for a more challenging market when positions are lifted and can self feed a trend regardless of fundamentals and technicals ** Commercial Net (Green): The spread between the Shorts and the Longs (-400k) is not as much in favor of the shorts compared to last year, but still at a historically strong level. (Divergence) A seasonal turn in net positions usually indicates a top is near. Large Spec Funds (red): In a long and strong position, but again, not as strong as last year (Divergence). In most cases I believe the commercials drive the market more than the funds. The funds like to ride the wave. Combined, the Commercials can hold 1.5m to 2.0m contracts. The funds peak out just under 500k contracts… With that said they can still have a major influence on the market, especially when open interest is low. Open Interest: Currently at elevated levels compared to the 2011’-2017’ market, but well-off last year’s levels. Enough liquidity in a normalized market, but in a $7-$9 market expect high volatility and deep ranges/corrections…. US Dollar (Orange): Commodity markets struggle to stay strong for a long period of time when the Dollar is above 100.00.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 808'4 Pivot: 801'2 Support : 795'2 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 808'4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 801'2 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 795'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv